Atalanta vs Parma: Serie A Match Prediction
Atalanta
ParmaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.25 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (3.5) 1.36 pending
Atalanta host Parma at New Balance Arena in Bergamo in Serie A’s 10th round. The hosts sit 12th with 11 points, while Parma are 18th on five. For Atalanta, this is a chance to move towards the top half; Parma need points to climb out of the relegation places.
Atalanta: scoring has not solved the defensive problems
Recent form and home advantage
Atalanta’s last five matches brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. They followed the 4:4 draw against Frosinone with a 2:2 at Fiorentina. Home league results are stronger: three wins, one draw and one defeat, with an 11:8 goal balance.
Where the balance breaks down
- Seven of nine league games featured Over 2.5 goals, and seven also produced BTTS.
- Only one league clean sheet shows how rarely the attack receives defensive protection.
- Nikola Krstovic has five goals and two assists in four appearances, the clearest individual attacking contribution.
Availability and attacking options
Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou, Sead Kolasinac and Raoul Bellanova are out with hip, hamstring, thigh-muscle and groin problems respectively; goalkeeper Thomas Pompei has a broken arm. Franck Kessie, Giacomo Raspadori, Gianluca Scamacca and Thomas Kristensen are doubtful. Charles De Ketelaere and Nicola Zalewski each have one goal and two assists in four league appearances. No probable XI or formation is supplied.
- Fiorentinaaway2:2
- Frosinone Calciohome4:4
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
Parma: away results expose the attacking shortfall
A draw after three defeats
Parma’s last five games produced one win, one draw and three defeats, with three goals scored and nine conceded. The latest result, 0:0 against Udinese, stopped a three-match losing run. Away from home, though, they have lost all four league fixtures, scoring twice and conceding nine.
The main performance indicators
- Five goals in nine league matches leave Parma averaging just 0.56 per game.
- BTTS occurred in four of nine fixtures, fewer than half despite 15 goals conceded.
- Five league matches cleared Over 2.5 goals; Parma have kept only one clean sheet.
Personnel and limited attacking output
Forward Nesta Elphege is unavailable following an appendectomy. Simone Lontani has one goal in four appearances, while Giovanni Fabbian has one assist across the same number of matches. No probable lineup, formation or suspension information is supplied. The visitors’ scoring record makes chance creation as pressing an issue as defending.
- Udinese Calciohome0:0
- Lazioaway1:2
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
Previous meetings have usually produced goals
Atalanta lead the four official meetings over the last five years with two wins, one draw and one defeat. Those games produced 15 goals: three cleared Over 2.5 and two featured BTTS. The latest meeting ended 4:0 in Bergamo in January, but Parma won the preceding fixture at this ground 3:2. Venue alone has not settled this matchup.
- 25.01.2026Atalanta4:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 30.08.2025Parma1:1AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 25.05.2025Atalanta2:3ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 23.11.2024Parma1:3AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 04.08.2024Parma4:1AtalantaClub Friendlies
Sarri points to the crowded schedule
Maurizio Sarri attributed Atalanta’s injury problems to the congested calendar on 30 October. His side played on both 25 and 29 October before this fixture, leaving little recovery time between league matches. No separate expert opinions are supplied.
Line-ups
Atalanta
Starting XI: 8. Mario Pasalic, 11. Jonathan David Henry Rowe, 13. Ederson Jose dos Santos Lourenco da Silva, 17. Charles De Ketelaere, 29. Marco Carnesecchi, 40. Relja Obric, 42. Giorgio Scalvini, 47. Lorenzo Bernasconi, 59. Nicola Zalewski, 77. Davide Zappacosta, 90. Nikola Krstovic
Substitutes: 7. Kamaldeen Sulemana, 10. Lazar Samardzic, 41. Javison Idele, 46. Sergej Levak, 51. Mattia Sonzogni, 53. Matteo Giuseppe Plaia, 57. Marco Sportiello, 99. Eljif Elmas
Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Parma
Starting XI: 4. Vincent Sierro, 14. Emanuele Valeri, 15. Enrico del Prato, 16. Mandela Keita, 19. El Bilal Toure, 27. Sascha Britschgi, 30. Giovanni Daffara, 37. Mariano Troilo, 72. Dominik Drobnic, 76. Simone Lontani, 80. Giovanni Fabbian
Substitutes: 3. Abdoulaye Niakhate Ndiaye, 7. Ousmane Diallo, 8. Benjamin Cremaschi, 9. David Romero, 11. Pontus Almqvist, 20. Matija Frigan, 22. Simone Ghidotti, 23. Nesta Elphege, 29. Franco Carboni, 32. Christian Ordonez, 34. Diego Carlos Santos, 40. Edoardo Corvi, 41. Hans Nicolussi Caviglia, 47. Abdou Salam Konate
Coach: Alberto Gilardino
Pre-match update
Atalanta face Parma in Bergamo with 11 points in 13th place; the visitors are 18th on five.
According to media reports, Atalanta will be without defenders Isak Hien, Odilon Kossounou, Sead Kolasinac and Raoul Bellanova, while Giacomo Raspadori and Gianluca Scamacca remain doubtful. Parma striker Nesta Elphege is unavailable following an appendectomy. The uncertainty around Atalanta’s forward options is the main selection risk for this bet.
Our goals selection
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.43. Atalanta have scored 16 goals in nine league matches, including 11 in five at home. Parma have lost all four away fixtures, conceding nine goals. Those home and away records support backing two Atalanta goals rather than relying on the hosts to win.
Nikola Krstovic has five league goals and two assists in four appearances, providing a scoring threat despite the doubts elsewhere in attack. Atalanta’s eight goals conceded at home also explain the choice: defensive errors could cost them points without preventing this selection from landing. Parma’s away sample is only four matches, so its average is not a guarantee of another two-goal concession. Our projected score is 2:1.
Final call
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.43 targets Atalanta’s scoring rather than their ability to protect a lead. Check the attacking line-up before committing, with both doubtful forwards relevant to the depth available.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Fiorentinaaway2:2
- Frosinone Calciohome4:4
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Udinese Calciohome0:0
- Lazioaway1:2
- Torinohome0:3
- Internazionale Milanoaway0:3
- Genoahome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cagliari Calcio | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16:17 | 11 |
| 14 | Lecce | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Sassuolo Calcio | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14:22 | 8 |
| 16 | Monza 1912 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 17 | Fiorentina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11:21 | 5 |
| 18 | Parma | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5:15 | 5 |
| 19 | Udinese Calcio | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11:23 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 25.01.2026Atalanta4:0ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 30.08.2025Parma1:1AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 25.05.2025Atalanta2:3ParmaItaly. Serie A
- 23.11.2024Parma1:3AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 04.08.2024Parma4:1AtalantaClub Friendlies
About the match
- 2 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: New Balance Arena (Bergamo), Bergamo
Odds
odds before kick-off
Hosts remain favourites as confidence eases
The margin-free 1X2 assessment gives Atalanta a 63.3% chance, the draw 21.1% and Parma 15.6%. Over the past 24 hours, the home-win price has drifted while the draw and away-win prices have shortened: Atalanta remain clear favourites, but market confidence has weakened.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 59% assessment and has attracted support, while Under has moved in the opposite direction. BTTS is rated at 54.7%, with no notable movement. The distinction matters: support for a higher total is stronger than confidence that both attacks will contribute.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Odds
- 1.43
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.43
- Potential win
- 43 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.36
- Status
- pending