Atalanta vs Frosinone Calcio Prediction in Italy Serie A
Atalanta
Frosinone CalcioMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (3.5) 1.4 pending
- 2nd half: Total Over (1.5) 1.5 pending
Atalanta host Frosinone Calcio at New Balance Arena in Serie A’s eighth round. Frosinone are sixth with 13 points, while Atalanta are 11th on 9. The hosts are seeking to end a two-match losing run.
Atalanta: home advantage under pressure
Recent form and match profile
Atalanta have won 2 of their last 5 matches and lost 3, scoring 8 and conceding 9. They scored in 3 of those games and conceded in all 5. Victories over Unione Venezia and Pafos, both by 3:1, were followed by defeats to Milan and Ajax, the latest a 0:2 loss away to Ajax.
In Serie A, their home record is 3 wins and 1 defeat in 4 matches, with 7 goals scored and 4 conceded.
Strengths, weaknesses and personnel
- Atalanta have scored in 5 of 7 league games but kept only 1 clean sheet.
- BTTS occurred in 5 of 7 league matches, as did Over 2.5 goals.
- They have conceded 11 goals in 7 league fixtures.
Nikola Krstovic leads their league scoring with 3 goals and 1 assist in 2 appearances. Gianluca Gaetano has 1 goal in 2 matches, while Franck Kessie has 1 in 1.
Atalanta have played 3 matches in less than 7 days and are below their best physically and psychologically.
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Unione Veneziahome3:1
- Juventusaway0:2
Frosinone bring the sharper recent trend
Results, scoring and away balance
Frosinone have recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 7. They scored in 4 of those games and conceded in 4. Their latest result was a 4:2 home victory against Sassuolo, following a 0:3 defeat at Napoli.
Their league record is 4 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 13 goals scored and 9 conceded. Away from home, they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded.
Attacking identity and available players
Their league scoring average is 1.86 goals per game against Atalanta’s 1.43. Their BTTS rate is 3 of 7, and they have kept 2 clean sheets.
Antonio Raimondo has 3 league goals in 2 appearances, while Giacomo Calo has scored once in 2 matches. They favour attacking football regardless of the opponent.
- Sassuolo Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway0:3
- Benevento Calciohome2:1
- Comohome2:0
- Genoaaway1:1
Two recent meetings, one emphatic home result
The clubs have met twice in official competition during the last five years, with one win each and no draw. Frosinone won 2:1 at home in August 2023, before Atalanta won 5:0 in Bergamo in January 2024.
- 15.01.2024Atalanta5:0Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 26.08.2023Frosinone Calcio2:1AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 20.01.2019Frosinone Calcio0:5AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 20.08.2018Atalanta4:0Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 23.01.2016Frosinone Calcio0:0AtalantaItaly. Serie A
Team news points toward a demanding contest
Atalanta’s 2:3 defeat to Milan featured repeated defensive errors. The compressed calendar has contributed to injuries, and coach Sarri is hoping for players to return. Thomas Pompey is out with a fractured arm, while Raoul Bellanova is doubtful.
Raimondo is a key attacking threat for Frosinone, with a separate tally of 7 goals also attributed to him. The visitors are confident in the top flight. Florian Grillitsch is ruled out with an adductor injury; no further team news is confirmed.
Our goals forecast
Atalanta’s home scoring is the clearest angle for this meeting in Bergamo: our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.47. They have scored 7 goals in 4 home league matches, and struck three times in each of their last two home games across all competitions. That makes two home goals a more focused target than backing a result dependent on their defending.
Frosinone have conceded 4 goals in 3 league away games, including three at Napoli. Their attacking approach should offer Atalanta opportunities, although that small away sample limits confidence. The hosts’ congested schedule is the main counterweight: according to media reports, Thomas Pompei is out and Raoul Bellanova is doubtful. A possible score is 2:1 to Atalanta.
The final selection
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.47 targets Atalanta’s stronger home attacking output without requiring a clean sheet or victory. Keep the stake measured: the recent home scoring supports the threshold, but fatigue reduces the margin for error.
FAQ
When does Atalanta — Frosinone Calcio kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), New Balance Arena (Bergamo).
What is the prediction for Atalanta — Frosinone Calcio?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.47.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Atalanta win — 51%, draw — 23%, Frosinone Calcio win — 26%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Ajaxaway0:2
- Milanaway2:3
- Pafoshome3:1
- Unione Veneziahome3:1
- Juventusaway0:2
- Sassuolo Calciohome4:2
- Napoliaway0:3
- Benevento Calciohome2:1
- Comohome2:0
- Genoaaway1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Milan | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14:7 | 15 |
| 6 | Frosinone Calcio | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13:9 | 13 |
| 7 | Torino | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:11 | 13 |
| 8 | Cagliari Calcio | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | 13 |
| 9 | Juventus | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 10 | Napoli | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:10 | 11 |
| 11 | Atalanta | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10:11 | 9 |
| 12 | Lecce | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9:12 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 15.01.2024Atalanta5:0Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 26.08.2023Frosinone Calcio2:1AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 20.01.2019Frosinone Calcio0:5AtalantaItaly. Serie A
- 20.08.2018Atalanta4:0Frosinone CalcioItaly. Serie A
- 23.01.2016Frosinone Calcio0:0AtalantaItaly. Serie A
About the match
- 25 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: New Balance Arena (Bergamo), Bergamo
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 2.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 25.10 05:30
Market view: Atalanta favoured, goals still expected
The 1X2 market assigns Atalanta a 53.1% win probability, against 23.6% for a draw and 23.3% for an away win. The line has shown no notable movement over the last 24 hours. Atalanta’s home record supports their favourite status, while Frosinone’s higher league position and recent results weigh against a stronger home preference.
The totals market assigns 52.6% to Under 3.5 goals and 47.4% to Over 3.5. BTTS carries the clearest preference: 66.9% for Yes against 33.1% for No.
BTTS: Yes is the betting preference, combining Atalanta’s frequent concessions with Frosinone’s regular league scoring.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.47
- Odds at prediction
- 1.5
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.5
- Potential win
- 50 $
- Status
- pending
