Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow forecast: Premier League
Lokomotiv Moscow
Spartak MoscowLokomotiv host Spartak at RZD Arena on November 1 in Premier League round 13. The hosts are 13th with 11 points; fifth-placed Spartak have 23 and trail leaders Zenit by four.
Lokomotiv: attacking returns, defensive damage
Recent form and home record
Lokomotiv’s last five matches brought a 5:0 win at Fakel, a 1:2 loss to Akron, a 3:3 draw with Krasnodar and defeats by Rostov, 0:2, and CSKA, 1:3. They have no victory in four. At home in the league, they remain winless: four draws and one defeat, with five goals scored and six conceded.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Scored in four of the last five matches.
- Kept three clean sheets in 12 league games.
- BTTS occurred in seven league fixtures; five finished Over 2.5.
Availability and attacking options
Nikolay Komlichenko has recovered from injury. He and Nikolai Titkov have two league goals apiece, with Titkov developing in a box-to-box role. Cesar Montes, Sergey Babkin and Zelimkhan Bakaev are injury doubts; Sergey Pinyaev has been ill, while Aleksandr Silyanov had a fever. Georgiy Dzhikiya faces his former club.
- CSKA Moscowaway1:3
- Rostovaway0:2
- Krasnodarhome3:3
- Akron Tolyattihome1:2
- Fakel Voronezhaway5:0
Spartak: stronger season, weaker away balance
Results and travel record
Spartak’s last five results were 1:1 at Krylia Sovetov, 4:2 at Rodina, 4:0 against Rubin, 0:2 at CSKA and another Rubin win, 1:0. Three victories, one draw and one defeat.
Their league away record is two wins, one draw and two losses, with six scored and seven conceded.
Where the advantage lies
- Spartak scored 21 and conceded 10 across 12 league games.
- Kept five clean sheets.
- Seven league games finished Over 2.5; BTTS occurred in six.
Personnel and preparation
Christopher Martins is out injured. Manfred Ugalde and Mirlind Daku have two league goals each; Pablo Solari has a goal and an assist. Spartak played their cup match on October 28, before Lokomotiv’s latest outing, leaving the visitors a longer recovery interval.
- Rubin Kazanhome1:0
- CSKA Moscowaway0:2
- Rubin Kazanhome4:0
- Rodina Moscowaway4:2
- Krylia Sovetovaway1:1
Derby history favours Spartak
Spartak won nine of the 14 official meetings over five years, against three Lokomotiv wins and two draws. Lokomotiv’s recent home league meetings include 3:1 and 4:2 victories. Lokomotiv’s 2:0 friendly win in July falls outside that competitive record.
- 11.07.2026Lokomotiv Moscow2:0Spartak MoscowClub Friendlies
- 05.04.2026Spartak Moscow2:1Lokomotiv MoscowRussia. Premier League
- 26.11.2025Lokomotiv Moscow2:3Spartak MoscowRussian Cup (Regions Path (Play-off))
- 06.11.2025Spartak Moscow3:1Lokomotiv MoscowRussian Cup (Regions Path (Play-off))
- 09.08.2025Lokomotiv Moscow4:2Spartak MoscowRussia. Premier League
Coaching pressure and the derby response
Lokomotiv’s cup elimination and four defeats in this season’s capital derbies have increased the pressure on Mikhail Galaktionov. He has raised the possibility of leaving, though the club hierarchy supports him. Juan Carcedo’s side secured cup progression, but Igor Dmitriev has called for a response to the CSKA defeat.
Former Spartak striker Valery Masalitin expects goals, citing defensive weaknesses on both sides. Galaktionov has two wins, one draw and eight losses against Spartak; Carcedo won his sole meeting with Lokomotiv.
Our Prediction
Lokomotiv Moscow face Spartak at RZD Arena after 12 rounds: the hosts are 13th on 11 points, while Spartak sit fifth on 23. Our selection is Handicap 2 (0) 1.29. The pick protects against a draw and reflects the visitors’ stronger league profile: Spartak have won 7 of 12 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 10, while Lokomotiv have only 2 wins and a 16:16 goal balance.
Lokomotiv have not won at home in the league this season, drawing four and losing one. Their current run contains three defeats in five matches and two losses in succession. The squad also has several doubts: César Montes, Sergey Babkin, Sergey Pinyaev, Zelimkhan Bakaev and Aleksandr Silyanov may miss the derby, while Christopher Martins is unavailable for Spartak. Lokomotiv have lost all four Moscow derbies this season, increasing the pressure after their cup exit. Spartak have won 9 of the last 14 official meetings, and their recent five-match record is 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat. Expected score: 1:2 to Spartak.
Conclusion
Handicap 2 (0) 1.29 is supported by Spartak’s higher position, better defensive record and head-to-head advantage. A draw returns the stake, while the visitors’ superior season gives them the clearer path to victory.
FAQ
When does Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow kick off?
The match starts on 01.11.2026 at 11:45 (New York), RZD Arena (Moscow).
What is the prediction for Lokomotiv Moscow — Spartak Moscow?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.29.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Lokomotiv Moscow win — 21%, draw — 23%, Spartak Moscow win — 56%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- CSKA Moscowaway1:3
- Rostovaway0:2
- Krasnodarhome3:3
- Akron Tolyattihome1:2
- Fakel Voronezhaway5:0
- Rubin Kazanhome1:0
- CSKA Moscowaway0:2
- Rubin Kazanhome4:0
- Rodina Moscowaway4:2
- Krylia Sovetovaway1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Krasnodar | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 21:16 | 23 |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21:10 | 23 |
| 6 | Orenburg | 12 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 14:12 | 16 |
| 13 | Akron Tolyatti | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 15:21 | 12 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 16:16 | 11 |
| 15 | Akhmat | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:19 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 11.07.2026Lokomotiv Moscow2:0Spartak MoscowClub Friendlies
- 05.04.2026Spartak Moscow2:1Lokomotiv MoscowRussia. Premier League
- 26.11.2025Lokomotiv Moscow2:3Spartak MoscowRussian Cup (Regions Path (Play-off))
- 06.11.2025Spartak Moscow3:1Lokomotiv MoscowRussian Cup (Regions Path (Play-off))
- 09.08.2025Lokomotiv Moscow4:2Spartak MoscowRussia. Premier League
About the match
- 1 November · 11:45 New York
- Venue: RZD Arena (Moscow), Moskva
- Weather: 1° · precip. 0% · wind 1.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 01.11 06:00
Spartak favoured, but support has softened
The margin-free 1X2 market puts Spartak at 54.2%, the draw at 23.7% and Lokomotiv at 22.1%. Over the last 24 hours, support has shifted towards the hosts and the draw, while the away odds have drifted.
Over 2.5 has a 57.2% market probability, though movement has favoured Under. BTTS stands at 57.7%, with no notable shift.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.29
- Odds at prediction
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
