Russia Premier League prediction: Fakel Voronezh vs Rodina Moscow
Fakel Voronezh
Rodina MoscowMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.26 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.35 pending
Fakel Voronezh host Rodina Moscow at Fakel Stadium in the twelfth round of the Russian Premier League. Both have six points after eleven matches and occupy the bottom two places. Fakel are fifteenth on goal difference; Rodina are sixteenth, having conceded eight more goals.
Fakel’s recent recovery and home limitations
Form, structure and attacking output
Fakel have won three of their last five matches, scoring five goals and conceding seven. They arrive on a two-game winning run after beating Krasnodar away and Krylia Sovetov. The two defeats came against Spartak and Lokomotiv, while both victories before the latest away win brought clean sheets.
Their league record is weaker: eight goals in eleven rounds, an average of 0.73 per match. At home, Fakel have three draws and three defeats from six fixtures, with three goals scored and ten conceded. The five-goal defeat by Lokomotiv exposed their defensive vulnerability.
- Season record: one win, three draws and seven defeats.
- BTTS in five of eleven league matches.
- Over 2.5 goals in six of eleven matches.
- Two league clean sheets.
Squad information
Clayton Sampaio Pereira and Matvey Bardachev have one league goal each, while Ilnur Alshin has two assists.
- Krylia Sovetovaway2:1
- Krasnodaraway2:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowhome0:5
- Vitebskhome1:0
- Spartak Moscowaway0:1
Rodina’s defensive problems on the road
Results and pressure without the ball
Rodina have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches, scoring nine goals and conceding fourteen. They scored in four of those games, including twice against Orenburg, but conceded in all five. The defeats came against CSKA, Spartak and Dynamo; their latest league match ended in a draw.
Away from home, Rodina have one win and five defeats in six league matches, with four goals scored and fourteen conceded. They concede an average of 2.45 goals per league match. Their twelve goals overall exceed Fakel’s attacking return, with BTTS in seven of eleven games.
- Over 2.5 goals in nine of eleven league games.
- Goals conceded in all eleven league matches, leaving Rodina without a clean sheet.
Available personnel
Soltmurad Bakaev and Ivan Timoshenko have one league goal each, while Yordy Reyna has one assist.
- Orenburghome2:2
- Spartak Moscowhome2:4
- CSKA Moscowaway0:3
- Dynamo Moscowaway2:3
- Partizan Belgradeaway3:2
Head-to-head record favours Rodina
Rodina won both official meetings between the clubs during the last five years: 3:1 at Fakel in the latest encounter and 2:0 in the earlier match. Across those fixtures, Fakel scored once and conceded five; BTTS landed once, with the combined total reaching three goals in the latest meeting.
Both matches were played in the second tier, rather than the current Premier League campaign, limiting the relevance of the two-match sample.
- 13.04.2026Fakel Voronezh1:3Rodina MoscowRussian Championship. League 1
- 15.09.2025Rodina Moscow2:0Fakel VoronezhRussian Championship. League 1
- 17.02.2020Rodina Moscow2:0Fakel VoronezhFNL Cup
Confirmed news before the kickoff
Fakel’s eleventh-round win over Krylia Sovetov finished 2:1 on 17 October.
Our pick: focus on Fakel’s goals
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.41. Rodina have conceded 27 goals in 11 league matches without keeping a clean sheet. Their away record is especially relevant: 14 goals conceded in six trips. Fakel need two goals to win this bet, and the visitors’ defensive returns make that a credible target without requiring a home victory.
Fakel scored twice in each of their successive wins over Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov, although the first was a cup fixture. The counterweight is their league output at home: just three goals in six matches, so the recent improvement should not be treated as a guarantee. This selection rests on Rodina’s vulnerability rather than Fakel’s season-long attacking strength. The projected score is 2:1.
Final betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.41 targets the visitors’ weakest area while avoiding dependence on the match result. Two or more Fakel goals win the bet; exactly one returns the stake, a useful safeguard given the hosts’ limited home scoring.
FAQ
When does Fakel Voronezh — Rodina Moscow kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 08:00 (New York), Fakel (Voronezh).
What is the prediction for Fakel Voronezh — Rodina Moscow?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.41.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Fakel Voronezh win — 47%, draw — 27%, Rodina Moscow win — 26%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Krylia Sovetovaway2:1
- Krasnodaraway2:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowhome0:5
- Vitebskhome1:0
- Spartak Moscowaway0:1
- Orenburghome2:2
- Spartak Moscowhome2:4
- CSKA Moscowaway0:3
- Dynamo Moscowaway2:3
- Partizan Belgradeaway3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Akron Tolyatti | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12:20 | 9 |
| 15 | Fakel Voronezh | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8:19 | 6 |
| 16 | Rodina Moscow | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12:27 | 6 |
Head-to-head
- 13.04.2026Fakel Voronezh1:3Rodina MoscowRussian Championship. League 1
- 15.09.2025Rodina Moscow2:0Fakel VoronezhRussian Championship. League 1
- 17.02.2020Rodina Moscow2:0Fakel VoronezhFNL Cup
About the match
- 24 October · 08:00 New York
- Venue: Fakel (Voronezh), Voronezh
- Weather: 16° · precip. 0% · wind 2.9 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 02:20
Market reading and likely match profile
The 1X2 market favours Fakel, though their winless home record limits the case for backing them against Rodina’s weak away defence. The line has shown no notable movement during the last twenty-four hours.
The goals markets reflect competing pressures: Fakel’s low home scoring against Rodina’s high-scoring matches and lack of clean sheets. No market has moved materially.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.41
- Odds at prediction
- 1.44
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 65%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.44
- Potential win
- 44 $
- Status
- pending
