Premier League Prediction: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Match Preview
Nottingham Forest
ArsenalNottingham Forest host Arsenal at the City Ground on 18 October in Premier League round seven. Forest are 15th with five points after consecutive defeats; second-placed Arsenal have 15 points and trail Manchester City by three.
Nottingham Forest: home attack yet to deliver
Recent results and the home-away split
Forest’s last five matches brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with five goals scored and seven conceded. A 3:1 loss at Crystal Palace followed a 1:0 home defeat by Coventry. They also drew with Liverpool and Tottenham and won at Aston Villa.
Where Forest are gaining and losing ground
- Three home league matches have yielded no wins and no goals, with two conceded.
- All five league goals have come away from home.
- Forest have kept one clean sheet in six league games while averaging 0.83 goals scored per match.
Fitness decisions shape the selection
Igor Jesus is out with a calf injury and Nicolo Savona with a knee injury. Morgan Gibbs-White faces a fitness assessment after a muscle problem. Nikola Milenkovic has resumed training following injury and a knock, but his match readiness still needs assessment.
- Crystal Palaceaway1:3
- Coventry Cityhome0:1
- Aston Villaaway2:1
- Tottenham Hotspurhome0:0
- Liverpoolaway2:2
Arsenal: strong results, a less secure away record
Four wins across the last five outings
Arsenal have scored 11 and conceded six in their last five matches across all competitions. Wins over Sunderland and Ipswich preceded a 3:0 defeat at Brighton; they then beat Leeds 2:1 and Lille 3:0.
League strengths and travel limits
- Five wins from six league games have come with ten goals scored and five conceded.
- Their three away league fixtures brought two wins and one defeat, with three goals at each end: a smaller scoring margin than their overall record.
- Arsenal have kept three league clean sheets, with BTTS (both teams to score) in two of six games.
Defensive absences and a midfield assessment
William Saliba is unavailable with a back injury and Christos Tzolis with a hamstring injury. Piero Hincapie is expected to miss out with an ankle problem. Martin Zubimendi faces a post-training decision on his ankle injury.
- Lille OSChome3:0
- Leeds Unitedhome2:1
- Brighton & Hove Albionaway0:3
- Ipswich Townaway4:2
- Sunderlandaway2:0
Recent City Ground meetings have stayed tight
Arsenal have won five of the nine official meetings over the past five years, with two Forest wins and two draws. The eight listed encounters produced 21 goals, but the last two at the City Ground both finished goalless. Across the four listed matches at this venue, each side scored twice in total.
- 17.01.2026Nottingham Forest0:0ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 13.09.2025Arsenal3:0Nottingham ForestEngland. Premier League
- 26.02.2025Nottingham Forest0:0ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 23.11.2024Arsenal3:0Nottingham ForestEngland. Premier League
- 30.01.2024Nottingham Forest1:2ArsenalEngland. Premier League
Arteta stresses the hosts’ organisation
Mikel Arteta described Forest as well coached and said he was preparing for a difficult match. Arsenal played Lille on 13 October, two days after Forest’s latest fixture. Confirmed lineups, formations, suspension updates and further expert opinions are unavailable.
Our pick: Arsenal to take the points
Our bet is W2 1.62. Arsenal’s five wins in six league games make them the stronger choice, but Forest’s home attack is the key: no goals in three matches at the City Ground. With Igor Jesus ruled out by a calf injury and Morgan Gibbs-White doubtful, the hosts could struggle to turn possession into chances. Arsenal have won two of their three away league fixtures, so this selection does not depend solely on their home results.
The visitors still carry defensive risk: William Saliba is out with a back injury, while Piero Hincapie is likely to miss out with an ankle problem. Forest have conceded only twice at home, which argues against expecting a comfortable margin. Arsenal’s five wins in nine meetings over the past five years strengthen the case for backing them, rather than demanding a high-scoring performance. Predicted score: 0:1.
Final verdict
W2 1.62 is our selection, with Forest’s lack of home goals the decisive weakness. Arsenal’s defensive absences reduce confidence in the margin, not enough to change the pick.
FAQ
When does Nottingham Forest — Arsenal kick off?
The match starts on 18.10.2026 at 11:30 (New York), City Ground (Nottingham).
What is the prediction for Nottingham Forest — Arsenal?
Our pick is W2 at 1.62.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Nottingham Forest win — 15%, draw — 24%, Arsenal win — 61%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Crystal Palaceaway1:3
- Coventry Cityhome0:1
- Aston Villaaway2:1
- Tottenham Hotspurhome0:0
- Liverpoolaway2:2
- Lille OSChome3:0
- Leeds Unitedhome2:1
- Brighton & Hove Albionaway0:3
- Ipswich Townaway4:2
- Sunderlandaway2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 |
| 16 | Fulham | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | 5 |
| 17 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | 5 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6:12 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 17.01.2026Nottingham Forest0:0ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 13.09.2025Arsenal3:0Nottingham ForestEngland. Premier League
- 26.02.2025Nottingham Forest0:0ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 23.11.2024Arsenal3:0Nottingham ForestEngland. Premier League
- 30.01.2024Nottingham Forest1:2ArsenalEngland. Premier League
About the match
- 18 October · 11:30 New York
- Venue: City Ground (Nottingham)
Odds
Odds updated 17.10 23:00
Arsenal remain favourites as support shifts slightly
The margin-free 1X2 probabilities are 57.7% for an Arsenal away win, 25.3% for a draw and 17% for a Forest home win. Over the past 24 hours, home-win odds have shortened and away-win odds have drifted, without changing the favourites.
Under 2.5 is assessed at 50.5% and BTTS — No at 50.3%, with neither line moving noticeably. Neither goals market offers a clear preference at those near-even probabilities.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.62
- Odds at prediction
- 1.71
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.71
- Potential win
- 71 $
- Status
- pending
