Newcastle United vs Everton: Premier League Match Prediction
Newcastle United
EvertonMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.33 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.36 pending
Newcastle United host Everton at St. James' Park on 2 November in Premier League round 9. One point separates the clubs: the hosts are 12th with 11 points, the visitors 14th with 10. Everton can move above Newcastle, while the home side have an immediate opportunity to respond to their League Cup defeat.
Newcastle: scoring output masks defensive costs
Recent form and home balance
Newcastle have won two and lost three of their last five matches. The league sequence includes a 4:1 defeat at Coventry, a 0:1 home loss to Aston Villa and a 2:0 win at Crystal Palace. Their four home league fixtures have produced one win, two draws and one defeat, with six goals at each end: home advantage has not yet translated into a consistent edge.
Strengths, weaknesses and availability
The attack has scored in four of the last five games, but the defence has conceded in four too. Across eight league fixtures, Newcastle average 1.5 goals scored and 1.75 conceded; BTTS and Over 2.5 have each occurred five times, with two clean sheets. William Osula is unavailable with a knee injury, Joelinton is also out, and goalkeeper Even Jaouen has a hamstring injury. Valentino Livramento remains doubtful after a knock. Harvey Barnes and Sven Botman each have one league goal. A probable XI and formation are not confirmed.
- Evertonaway1:3
- Crystal Palaceaway2:0
- Aston Villahome0:1
- Coventry Cityaway1:4
- Hull Cityhome2:1
Everton: tighter league games, limited away returns
Results and the travelling attack
Everton's last five outings brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with six goals scored and seven conceded. Before their cup success, they drew 2:2 at Hull and lost 0:2 to both Chelsea and Arsenal. Away in the league, they remain winless after four games: three draws, one defeat and a 3–5 goal balance. Avoiding defeat has been more common than producing enough attacking output to win.
Defensive profile and squad options
Only two of Everton's eight league games went Over 2.5; BTTS occurred in three, alongside three clean sheets. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has one goal and one assist. Vitaliy Mykolenko returned for almost 90 minutes in the cup, while David Moyes expects Jarrad Branthwaite to be ready after concussion. James Garner is rebuilding fitness following hernia surgery. Jack Grealish was excluded from the cup squad for a disciplinary breach; his league availability is not confirmed. No probable XI or formation is supplied.
- Newcastle Unitedhome3:1
- Arsenalaway0:2
- Chelseahome0:2
- Hull Cityaway2:2
- Ipswich Townhome1:0
Recent meetings favour Everton
Across 11 competitive meetings in five years, Everton lead by five wins to four, with two draws. The latest was their 3:1 League Cup victory on 29 October. The three most recent league meetings at St. James' Park returned just one Newcastle point. That venue-specific record contrasts with any assumption of a strong home advantage. The August friendly is excluded from the competitive totals.
- 29.10.2026Everton3:1Newcastle UnitedEngland. League Cup
- 12.08.2026Newcastle United1:3EvertonClub Friendlies
- 28.02.2026Newcastle United2:3EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 29.11.2025Everton1:4Newcastle UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 25.05.2025Newcastle United0:1EvertonEngland. Premier League
A quick rematch, with different expectations
Matthias Jaissle and Newcastle are seeking a response to the cup defeat. Moyes was pleased with that result but expects a different Premier League contest. His warning fits the change of venue and competition; the previous result alone cannot establish how this meeting will unfold.
Line-ups
Newcastle United
Starting XI: 3. Lewis Hall, 5. Fabian Schar, 6. Nicolas Gonzalez Iglesias, 7. Joelinton, 10. William Osula, 11. Harvey Barnes, 19. Anthony Elanga, 21. Lukas Hornicek, 28. Joseph Willock, 33. Dan Burn, 37. Amar Dedic
Substitutes: 1. Nick Pope, 4. Sven Botman, 8. Aladji Bamba, 9. Yoane Wissa, 12. Malick Thiaw, 14. Sean Steur, 17. Bazoumana Toure, 23. Jacob Murphy, 41. Jacob Ramsey
Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Everton
Starting XI: 1. Jordan Pickford, 4. Jarrad Branthwaite, 6. James Tarkowski, 8. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, 11. Thierno Barry, 15. Jake O'Brien, 16. Vitaliy Mykolenko, 19. Tyrique George, 34. Merlin Rohl, 37. James Garner, 45. Harrison Armstrong
Substitutes: 2. Ainsley Maitland-Niles, 5. Michael Keane, 12. Mark Travers, 20. Tyler Dibling, 22. Brennan Johnson, 23. Christian Norgaard, 24. Carlos Jonas Alcaraz, 30. Hayden Hackney, 58. Braiden Graham
Coach: David Moyes
Our scoring pick
For Newcastle against Everton at St. James' Park, our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.37. Newcastle have scored in four of their last five matches and average 1.5 goals per league game. Their home return is six goals in four fixtures, so the scoring rate has not depended on away performances. Everton have conceded in four of their last five outings and allow 1.13 goals per league match.
Newcastle's scoring record supports the selection, while Everton have conceded five across four away league games, making this a measured selection rather than a high-scoring forecast. Osula's knee injury removes an attacking option, while Branthwaite's expected return after concussion could strengthen Everton's defence. Predicted score: 2:1.
Betting conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.37 is supported by Newcastle's scoring frequency. Everton's defensive returns make the two-goal threshold a risk, not a certainty.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Evertonaway1:3
- Crystal Palaceaway2:0
- Aston Villahome0:1
- Coventry Cityaway1:4
- Hull Cityhome2:1
- Newcastle Unitedhome3:1
- Arsenalaway0:2
- Chelseahome0:2
- Hull Cityaway2:2
- Ipswich Townhome1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Leeds United | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 13 | Ipswich Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 14 | Everton | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8:9 | 10 |
| 15 | Fulham | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9:11 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 29.10.2026Everton3:1Newcastle UnitedEngland. League Cup
- 12.08.2026Newcastle United1:3EvertonClub Friendlies
- 28.02.2026Newcastle United2:3EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 29.11.2025Everton1:4Newcastle UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 25.05.2025Newcastle United0:1EvertonEngland. Premier League
About the match
- 2 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: St. James' Park (Newcastle upon Tyne)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow home preference in the market
Newcastle are favourites at a margin-free 41.4%, compared with Everton at 32.3% and the draw at 26.3%. This is a modest home preference rather than a heavily one-sided assessment. All listed markets have shown no notable movement over the past 24 hours.
Over 2.5 is assigned 55.5%, while BTTS stands at 59.6%. Those expectations sit closer to Newcastle's league scoring pattern than Everton's lower-total record. Both seasonal samples cover only eight matches, so the contrast should not be treated as a settled long-term tendency.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.31
- Odds at prediction
- 1.37
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.31
- Potential win
- 31 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.32
- Status
- pending