Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Match Prediction – Premier League
Chelsea
Tottenham HotspurChelsea host Tottenham at Stamford Bridge on 24 October in Premier League round eight. Fourth with 13 points, Chelsea are defending a top-four position. Spurs sit seven points behind in 16th and need points to pull away from the foot of the table.
Chelsea: home scoring meets defensive disruption
Recent results and venue split
Chelsea have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches across all competitions. A 5:1 victory over Bournemouth and a 2:0 win at Everton followed a 0:3 loss at Brentford. They are unbeaten at home in the league, with two wins and a draw, 11 goals scored and six conceded.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- Chelsea average 2.43 goals scored per league match.
- They concede 1.86 per game and have kept one clean sheet in seven league fixtures.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in six of those seven matches and BTTS in five, though the sample is small.
Availability and selection
Emiliano Martinez is out after surgery on a fractured jaw, and Robert Sanchez is also unavailable. Reece James is sidelined until year-end following knee surgery; Jamie Gittens is expected to miss several weeks, while Emanuel Emegha continues his recovery. Pep Chavarria is doubtful, while Malo Gusto could return after illness. Moises Caicedo is available again.
Pedro Neto and Jordan Henderson each have two goals and one assist in their league appearances. The probable XI and formation are unconfirmed.
- Evertonaway2:0
- Bournemouthhome5:1
- Brentfordaway0:3
- Hull Cityhome2:2
- Leeds Unitedhome6:3
Tottenham: a home recovery, but little away threat
Form before the derby
Tottenham followed a 1:1 draw at Manchester United with a 3:1 home win over Coventry. Their last five matches across all competitions produced one victory, two draws and two defeats.
Where the balance breaks down
- Spurs have no league away wins: two draws and one defeat, with one goal scored and four conceded.
- They average 0.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per league match.
- They have kept two clean sheets in seven league games; BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred three times.
Personnel available
Pedro Porro has recovered from a hamstring injury and is ready to return. Dominic Solanke has one goal and one assist in two league appearances; James Maddison also has a goal. The probable XI and formation remain unconfirmed.
- Coventry Cityhome3:1
- Manchester Unitedaway1:1
- Aston Villahome2:3
- Liverpoolaway1:3
- Evertonhome0:0
Competitive meetings favour Chelsea
Chelsea have won nine of the 11 competitive meetings over five years, with one draw and one defeat. They have won the last six, most recently 2:1 in May. Tottenham's 2:1 friendly victory in August falls outside that competitive record.
- 01.08.2026Chelsea1:2Tottenham HotspurClub Friendlies
- 19.05.2026Chelsea2:1Tottenham HotspurEngland. Premier League
- 01.11.2025Tottenham Hotspur0:1ChelseaEngland. Premier League
- 03.04.2025Chelsea1:0Tottenham HotspurEngland. Premier League
- 08.12.2024Tottenham Hotspur3:4ChelseaEngland. Premier League
Alonso stresses emotional control
Xabi Alonso has urged Chelsea to use the crowd's energy while controlling their emotions. He acknowledged difficulties implementing his football despite the absence of European commitments.
Forecast rain of 2.8 mm and gusts reaching 14.9 m/s could disrupt long passing and handling at Stamford Bridge.
Our derby selection
Chelsea have the stronger case at Stamford Bridge, but a draw is worth protecting against: our pick is Handicap 1 (0) 1.44. Their unbeaten home league record combines 11 goals scored in three games with Tottenham's single goal across three away fixtures. That contrast favours the hosts' attack, while Chelsea's six successive competitive wins in this derby add weight to the selection.
The caution concerns Chelsea's defence: six goals conceded at home leave room for Tottenham to respond. According to media reports, Emiliano Martinez and Reece James are unavailable, while Moises Caicedo is back. Those absences make a clean sheet less secure; Caicedo's return helps the midfield protect a disrupted back line. Tottenham have drawn twice away without winning, so retaining a refund if the match finishes level is preferable to requiring a home victory.
Final betting view
Handicap 1 (0) 1.44 backs Chelsea's greater attacking output without ignoring their defensive absences. A home win pays; a draw returns the stake.
FAQ
When does Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 12:30 (New York), Stamford Bridge (London).
What is the prediction for Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.44.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Chelsea win — 50%, draw — 25%, Tottenham Hotspur win — 25%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Evertonaway2:0
- Bournemouthhome5:1
- Brentfordaway0:3
- Hull Cityhome2:2
- Leeds Unitedhome6:3
- Coventry Cityhome3:1
- Manchester Unitedaway1:1
- Aston Villahome2:3
- Liverpoolaway1:3
- Evertonhome0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | 16 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17:13 | 13 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9:13 | 6 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6:10 | 6 |
| 17 | Coventry City | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6:14 | 6 |
Head-to-head
- 01.08.2026Chelsea1:2Tottenham HotspurClub Friendlies
- 19.05.2026Chelsea2:1Tottenham HotspurEngland. Premier League
- 01.11.2025Tottenham Hotspur0:1ChelseaEngland. Premier League
- 03.04.2025Chelsea1:0Tottenham HotspurEngland. Premier League
- 08.12.2024Tottenham Hotspur3:4ChelseaEngland. Premier League
About the match
- 24 October · 12:30 New York
- Venue: Stamford Bridge (London), London
- Weather: 12° · precip. 100% · wind 7.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:50
Chelsea remain favourites as confidence eases
The 1X2 market assigns Chelsea a 55.1% chance, the draw 22.4% and Tottenham 22.6%. Over the past 24 hours, home-win odds have drifted while draw and away-win odds have shortened.
The goals markets are stable: Under 3.5 goals carries a 57.9% assessment and BTTS 62.4%. Tottenham's away scoring record argues against the BTTS price, despite Chelsea's defensive absences.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.44
- Odds at prediction
- 1.34
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.34
- Potential win
- 34 $
- Status
- pending
