Bournemouth vs Leeds United Premier League match prediction
Bournemouth
Leeds UnitedBournemouth host Leeds United at Vitality Stadium on 31 October in Premier League round nine. The hosts are 13th with nine points. Bournemouth arrive after a midweek cup tie, while Leeds have had a clear week to prepare.
Bournemouth: recent surge versus season record
Form and scoring balance
Bournemouth have won their last five matches across three competitions by an aggregate 14:0, beating Sturm Graz, Sunderland, Milan, Manchester United and Aston Villa. That run contrasts with their league record of two wins, three draws and three defeats, with 12 goals scored and 13 conceded.
Strengths and weaknesses
- The last five games produced goals in every match and no concessions.
- At home in the league, Bournemouth have five goals for and four against across four fixtures, but only one win.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in five of eight league games; only two brought clean sheets.
Personnel and attacking options
Evanilson leads the listed scorers with three goals and one assist; Marcus Tavernier has two goals and Rayan Vitor one. Alex Scott and Julian Araujo are out with hamstring injuries, while Junior Kroupi and Veljko Milosavljevic miss out with knee injuries. Those absences affect midfield, both defensive roles and the striker options.
- Aston Villahome3:0
- Manchester Unitedaway3:0
- Milanhome3:0
- Sunderlandhome2:0
- Sturm Grazhome3:0
Leeds United: defensive returns, limited scoring
Recent results and away form
Leeds have one win, three draws and one defeat in their last five games. Four of those goals came against Newcastle. Their latest results were a home draw with Manchester United and a goalless visit to Sunderland. Across four league away games, Leeds have one win, two draws and one defeat, with three goals scored and three conceded.
Where the balance lies
- Six goals conceded in eight league matches is substantially fewer than Bournemouth's total.
- Five league draws explain why a single defeat has brought only 11 points.
- Three clean sheets and just two Over 2.5 games show a lower-scoring season profile.
Availability and key contributors
Dominic Calvert-Lewin and James Justin each have one goal in the listed player returns, while Gabriel Gudmundsson has one assist. Mateo Joseph is out with a cruciate ligament injury and Joe Rodon with a hamstring injury; Daniel James is doubtful with a back problem.
- Sunderlandaway0:0
- Manchester Unitedhome1:1
- Arsenalaway1:2
- Crystal Palacehome0:0
- Newcastle Unitedhome4:1
Previous meetings have favoured goals
The four meetings over the past five years produced one win apiece and two draws. Bournemouth's two home results were a 4:1 victory and a 2:2 draw; the latest two encounters both finished level. That history is high-scoring, but covers only four fixtures.
- 22.04.2026Bournemouth2:2Leeds UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 27.09.2025Leeds United2:2BournemouthEngland. Premier League
- 30.04.2023Bournemouth4:1Leeds UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 05.11.2022Leeds United4:3BournemouthEngland. Premier League
- 20.01.2015Leeds United1:0BournemouthEngland. Championship
Coaches' reactions and the recovery gap
Marco Rose praised his players after the Milan victory. Daniel Farke felt Leeds deserved to beat Manchester United rather than draw. The visitors have the longer recovery window; whether that translates into a late-game advantage depends on team selection.
Our prediction
Bournemouth’s attack has produced 14 goals in the last five matches, with five consecutive wins and clean sheets in each game. This is a sharp contrast with the league total of 12 goals in eight rounds, but the current attacking trend is supported by the venue: Bournemouth scored 5 times in four home league matches. The hosts also scored at least twice in each of their last four meetings with Leeds.
Leeds have conceded in three of their last five matches, while central defender Joe Rodon is unavailable because of a hamstring injury. Mateo Joseph is also out, reducing the visitors’ attacking options, and Daniel James remains doubtful. Bournemouth have their own absences, including Alex Scott, Julian Araujo, Junior Kroupi and Veljko Milosavljevic, yet the team has scored two, three, three and three goals in its last four fixtures. The market gives the hosts a 45.7% win probability, the highest of the three 1X2 outcomes. Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) за 1.39. A probable score is 2:0.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) за 1.39 is supported by Bournemouth’s 14:0 run, four successive two-goal performances against Leeds and the visitors’ defensive loss of Rodon.
FAQ
When does Bournemouth — Leeds United kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 11:00 (New York), Vitality (Bournemouth).
What is the prediction for Bournemouth — Leeds United?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.39.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Bournemouth win — 45%, draw — 28%, Leeds United win — 27%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Aston Villahome3:0
- Manchester Unitedaway3:0
- Milanhome3:0
- Sunderlandhome2:0
- Sturm Grazhome3:0
- Sunderlandaway0:0
- Manchester Unitedhome1:1
- Arsenalaway1:2
- Crystal Palacehome0:0
- Newcastle Unitedhome4:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Brentford | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:9 | 11 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 9:6 | 11 |
| 8 | Newcastle United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:14 | 11 |
| 12 | Ipswich Town | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | 10 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:13 | 9 |
| 14 | Tottenham Hotspur | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:10 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 22.04.2026Bournemouth2:2Leeds UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 27.09.2025Leeds United2:2BournemouthEngland. Premier League
- 30.04.2023Bournemouth4:1Leeds UnitedEngland. Premier League
- 05.11.2022Leeds United4:3BournemouthEngland. Premier League
- 20.01.2015Leeds United1:0BournemouthEngland. Championship
About the match
- 31 October · 11:00 New York
- Venue: Vitality (Bournemouth), Bornmut
- Weather: 14° · precip. 0% · wind 2.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 06:10
Market favours the hosts without a majority
Bournemouth are the 1X2 favourites at a margin-free probability of 45.7%, against 27.7% for the draw and 26.7% for Leeds. That is a clear preference, but below an even chance. The totals market is almost balanced: Over 2.5 has 50.8% probability and Under 2.5 has 49.2%. BTTS is more favoured at 55.4%. None of these lines has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
