Premier League Prediction: Arsenal vs Everton Match Preview
Arsenal
EvertonMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.44 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4) 1.27 pending
Arsenal host Everton at Emirates in the eighth round of the Premier League, trailing leaders Manchester City by three points. Everton are eighth on ten points after their first league defeat of the season. Arsenal face a short recovery following their trip to Munich.
Arsenal: strong home record, questions over freshness
Arsenal have six wins from seven league matches, with eleven goals scored and five conceded, and sit second on eighteen points. They have won all three home games, scoring seven and conceding two.
Their last five matches in all competitions brought three wins, one draw and one defeat. Arsenal scored in four, but conceded in three, allowing three goals at Brighton. The run includes a home win over Lille, an away victory at Nottingham Forest and a two-two draw at Bayern Munich.
Strengths, structure and available players
Arsenal have kept four clean sheets in seven league games.
Martin Subimendi has returned and is confirmed to take part. William Saliba, Christos Tzolis and Piero Hincapie are out of the squad. Saka suffered a thigh problem early against Bayern and remains doubtful; Arteta described the situation as concerning. Bruno Guimaraes, Noni Madueke and Riccardo Calafiori each have one league goal from two appearances.
- Bayern Munichaway2:2
- Nottingham Forestaway1:0
- Lille OSChome3:0
- Leeds Unitedhome2:1
- Brighton & Hove Albionaway0:3
Everton: compact away profile, limited attacking output
Everton have two wins, four draws and one defeat in the league, scoring eight and conceding seven. All three away league matches ended level, with three goals scored and three conceded.
Their last five matches produced two wins, two draws and one defeat. They kept clean sheets against Tottenham and Wolverhampton, but their latest outing ended in a home loss to Chelsea, scoring none and conceding two.
Defensive discipline against a stronger opponent
- Everton conceded in only two of their last five matches and scored in three.
- Only two of their seven league games finished Over two-and-a-half goals.
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall leads Everton’s scorers with one goal and one assist; Thierno Barry has one goal, while Ainsley Maitland-Niles has one assist. Christian Norgaard returned from injury as a substitute against Chelsea and is back in contention. David Moyes has reported no further injuries to his small squad. A cautious shape protecting central areas would suit their unbeaten away record.
- Chelseahome0:2
- Hull Cityaway2:2
- Ipswich Townhome1:0
- Wolverhampton Wanderershome1:0
- Tottenham Hotspuraway0:0
Arsenal have controlled the recent head-to-head record
Across the last ten official meetings in five years, Arsenal have won six, drawn two and lost two.
The latest encounter there ended in a two-goal Arsenal win and a clean sheet.
- 14.03.2026Arsenal2:0EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 20.12.2025Everton0:1ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 05.04.2025Everton1:1ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 14.12.2024Arsenal0:0EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 19.05.2024Arsenal2:1EvertonEngland. Premier League
Team news, motivation and match context
Arteta acknowledged a possible lack of freshness after the Bayern trip. Arsenal’s absences reduce their options for defensive and attacking rotation.
Moyes has faced criticism following the Chelsea defeat. Everton need to improve on that performance to compete in London.
Our prediction: Arsenal to take the points
Our pick is W1 1.52. Arsenal’s three home wins matter more here than Everton’s unbeaten away record: the visitors have drawn all three trips, without showing they can turn resistance into victories. With seven goals scored at Emirates against two conceded, Arsenal have the stronger case for breaking that pattern. Everton’s away return of three goals leaves little margin if they fall behind.
The main risk is Arsenal’s reduced recovery time after Munich, compounded by Saka’s thigh injury and Saliba’s absence. Zubimendi’s confirmed return helps, but does not erase those concerns. Even so, Arsenal have won three of the four listed home meetings with Everton, conceding only once across those games. That supports a narrow home victory rather than an assumption of a comfortable scoreline. Probable score: 1:0. Confirmed starting line-ups are not available.
Final betting verdict
W1 1.52 is our selection, with Arsenal’s home scoring advantage outweighing Everton’s ability to keep away games level. The hosts’ fitness concerns make the margin less certain than the direction of the bet.
FAQ
When does Arsenal — Everton kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), Emirates (London).
What is the prediction for Arsenal — Everton?
Our pick is W1 at 1.52.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Arsenal win — 65%, draw — 22%, Everton win — 14%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Bayern Munichaway2:2
- Nottingham Forestaway1:0
- Lille OSChome3:0
- Leeds Unitedhome2:1
- Brighton & Hove Albionaway0:3
- Chelseahome0:2
- Hull Cityaway2:2
- Ipswich Townhome1:0
- Wolverhampton Wanderershome1:0
- Tottenham Hotspuraway0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 19:7 | 21 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 11:5 | 18 |
| 3 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23:5 | 16 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 9:6 | 10 |
| 8 | Everton | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8:7 | 10 |
| 9 | Hull City | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 9 |
Head-to-head
- 14.03.2026Arsenal2:0EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 20.12.2025Everton0:1ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 05.04.2025Everton1:1ArsenalEngland. Premier League
- 14.12.2024Arsenal0:0EvertonEngland. Premier League
- 19.05.2024Arsenal2:1EvertonEngland. Premier League
About the match
- 24 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Emirates (London), London
- Weather: 12° · precip. 100% · wind 5.3 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:10
Market view and probability balance
The 1X2 market assigns Arsenal a 65.9% home win probability, with the draw at 21.5% and an Everton away win at 12.6%. The line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
Over two-and-a-half goals has a probability of 51.3%, against 48.7% for Under. BTTS No is at 53.5%, compared with 46.5% for BTTS Yes.
The market is more decisive on the match result than on total goals or BTTS; neither goals market offers a clear preference.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.52
- Odds at prediction
- 1.43
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 82%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.5
- Potential win
- 50 $
- Status
- pending
