Santa Clara vs Benfica: Primeira Liga Match Prediction
Santa Clara
BenficaSanta Clara host Benfica at Estadio de Sao Miguel in Ponta Delgada in round 9 of the Primeira Liga, with kick-off at 14:45 America/New_York on 26 October. Benfica are second, while Santa Clara are fourth.
Santa Clara: defence under a different kind of pressure
Recent results and home record
Santa Clara have three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five matches. Their latest result, a 3:2 cup defeat at Mafra, left their unbeaten league record intact. At home in the league, they have two wins and two draws, scoring seven and conceding two.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- Five clean sheets in eight league games.
- Only three league matches featured BTTS.
- Three of eight league games went Over 2.5 goals.
- The three goals conceded at Mafra exceeded their entire home league total.
Availability and selection
Je Tavares is suspended after two yellow cards in the cup. Lucas Franca is expected back in goal. Mateus Araujo, known as MT, has resumed training after a cruciate ligament injury and could make the squad. Other players are doubtful.
- Mafraaway2:3
- Casa Piaaway1:0
- Bragahome0:0
- Aroucaaway2:1
- Rio Avehome4:0
Benfica: prolific attack with missing personnel
Momentum and away performance
Benfica have won four of their last five matches. Their three-match winning run includes consecutive 4:1 European victories over Celtic and AC Omonia. The latter came on 22 October. They trail Porto by eight points.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- Twenty-four goals in eight league games: an average of three per match.
- Three wins from four league away fixtures, with a 15:3 aggregate score.
- Seven of eight league matches went Over 2.5 goals.
- Four league clean sheets, but a 3:1 defeat at Porto.
Injuries and midfield options
Leandro Barreiro is out long term, Jakub Kaminski has a muscle injury and Vangelis Pavlidis is unavailable after being injured on 22 October. Further rotation players are absent and one player is doubtful. Marco Silva says Heorhii Sudakov is ready to play centrally.
- AC Omoniaaway4:1
- Celtichome4:1
- Vitoria Guimaraeshome2:0
- Portoaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
Head-to-head record favours the visitors
Benfica have won seven of the eight official meetings over the last five years, with one draw and a 19:4 aggregate advantage. Santa Clara lost all three home fixtures in that sequence. Six meetings exceeded 2.5 goals, while four featured BTTS. The latest encounter ended 2:1 to Benfica in February 2026.
- 13.02.2026Santa Clara1:2BenficaPortugal. Primeira Liga
- 12.09.2025Benfica1:1Santa ClaraPortugal. Primeira Liga
- 15.02.2025Santa Clara0:1BenficaCampeonato de Portugal
- 30.10.2024Benfica3:0Santa ClaraPortugal. League Cup
- 14.09.2024Benfica4:1Santa ClaraCampeonato de Portugal
Coaching message before the Azores trip
Silva has rejected speculation about Anatoliy Trubin leaving, saying Benfica do not intend to sell their goalkeeper. Dry conditions are forecast at 19°C, with wind gusts reaching 11.4 m/s, which could affect aerial deliveries.
Our pick: Benfica to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.45. Benfica have scored 24 goals in eight league matches, averaging 3 per game, with 15 goals across four away fixtures. The selection targets that attacking output without requiring Santa Clara to contribute or Benfica to keep a clean sheet. The visitors have also scored at least twice in six of the last eight meetings between these clubs.
Santa Clara's two goals conceded in four home league games are the strongest objection: this is a compact defence, not an opponent to dismiss. According to media reports, Benfica will be without injured Vangelis Pavlidis and Leandro Barreiro, while Santa Clara's Lucas Franca is expected back in goal. Those absences temper confidence, particularly with a striker missing, but Benfica's scoring rate still supports a two-goal target rather than a higher threshold. A likely score is 0:2. Confirmed starting line-ups are not available.
Final verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.45 is our selection, with a measured stake given Santa Clara's home defensive record and Benfica's missing attacking personnel.
FAQ
When does Santa Clara — Benfica kick off?
The match starts on 26.10.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Estadio de Sao Miguel (Ponta Delgada).
What is the prediction for Santa Clara — Benfica?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.45.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Santa Clara win — 10%, draw — 20%, Benfica win — 69%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Mafraaway2:3
- Casa Piaaway1:0
- Bragahome0:0
- Aroucaaway2:1
- Rio Avehome4:0
- AC Omoniaaway4:1
- Celtichome4:1
- Vitoria Guimaraeshome2:0
- Portoaway1:3
- Milanaway2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21:4 | 27 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 3 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21:11 | 18 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12:4 | 18 |
| 5 | Arouca | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12:7 | 17 |
Head-to-head
- 13.02.2026Santa Clara1:2BenficaPortugal. Primeira Liga
- 12.09.2025Benfica1:1Santa ClaraPortugal. Primeira Liga
- 15.02.2025Santa Clara0:1BenficaCampeonato de Portugal
- 30.10.2024Benfica3:0Santa ClaraPortugal. League Cup
- 14.09.2024Benfica4:1Santa ClaraCampeonato de Portugal
About the match
- 26 October · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Estadio de Sao Miguel (Ponta Delgada)
- Weather: 19° · precip. 0% · wind 5.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 26.10 04:40
Market confidence centres on Benfica
The 1X2 market assigns Benfica a 70% probability of victory, against 20.1% for a draw and 9.9% for Santa Clara. Over the last 24 hours, support has strengthened for the visitors and weakened for the other two outcomes.
Over 2.5 carries 51.3%, while BTTS No stands at 56.7%; both have attracted support. BTTS No has the stronger market backing, with Santa Clara's clean-sheet record supporting that position despite Benfica's scoring rate.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.45
- Odds at prediction
- 1.49
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 62%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.49
- Potential win
- 49 $
- Status
- pending