Ekstraklasa Match Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
Wisla KrakowMatch result
Lech Poznan 3:1 Wisla Krakow (0:0, 3:1)
In Poland Ekstraklasa, Lech Poznan defeated Wisla Krakow with a final score of 3:1 (0:0, 3:1). The first half ended 0:0, while the second period finished 3:1 in favor of the hosts. Our forecast for this fixture was Handicap 1 (0), and with the home team securing the victory, the bet won.
Our prediction: Handicap 1 (0) at 1.33 — the bet won.
Lech Poznan host Wisla Krakow at INEA stadion in Round 13 of the Ekstraklasa. The leaders have 28 points, level with Gornik Zabrze; fifth-placed Wisla are seven points behind. This is a chance for Lech to extend their advantage over a direct pursuer, while the visitors seek their first away league win of the season.
Lech: strong home returns, mixed recent results
Form and league position
Lech's last five matches across all competitions brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. They beat Korona Kielce 6:1 and Legia Warsaw 2:1 in the league, but lost 0:1 at Siarka Tarnobrzeg in the cup on 28 October. They conceded in all five games, a less secure sequence than their league record suggests.
Attacking output and defensive contrasts
- At home in the league: five wins and one draw, with 17 goals scored and just three conceded.
- Across 11 league fixtures, Lech average 2.64 goals scored and 0.91 conceded.
- Nine league games finished Over 2.5 goals; eight featured BTTS, with three clean sheets.
Personnel under Frederiksen
Niels Frederiksen's attacking contributors include Pablo Rodriguez Delgado, with three goals and three assists, Patrik Walemark with three goals, and Mikael Ishak with two goals and two assists in their listed three appearances each.
- Siarka Tarnobrzegaway0:1
- Legia Warsawaway2:1
- Sunderlandhome1:1
- Korona Kielcehome6:1
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome0:4
Wisla: home success has not travelled
Recent results in context
Wisla's five-match record shows three wins, a draw and a defeat. Recent league results included a 0:2 loss at Legia, a goalless draw at Widzew Lodz and a 2:1 home win over Rakow Czestochowa. The home response did not resolve their away attacking difficulties.
The away performance gap
- Six away league matches have yielded three draws and three defeats, with seven goals scored and 11 conceded.
- Wisla average 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 12 league matches.
- BTTS occurred eight times and Over 2.5 goals seven times; only three matches brought clean sheets.
Jop's available personnel picture
Mariusz Jop leads the visitors. Ertltkhaler and Duda each have one goal in their listed three appearances, while Uruga has one assist.
- Rakow Czestochowahome2:1
- Widzew Lodzaway0:0
- Legia Warsawaway0:2
- Piast Gliwiceaway4:3
- KS Dalin Mysleniceaway4:0
One draw offers little historical guidance
The only official meeting listed from the last five years ended 1:1 in Krakow on 13 March 2022. Neither side therefore holds a winning edge in this sample. Both scored, but one match cannot establish a reliable scoring trend for this fixture.
- 13.03.2022Wisla Krakow1:1Lech PoznanPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 17.09.2021Lech Poznan5:0Wisla KrakowPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 08.05.2021Wisla Krakow1:2Lech PoznanPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 19.12.2020Lech Poznan0:1Wisla KrakowPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 08.03.2020Wisla Krakow1:1Lech PoznanPoland. Ekstraklasa
Preparation time separates the teams
There are no additional match-specific news items or expert opinions available. The schedule does show a preparation gap: Wisla last played on 24 October, whereas Lech had a midweek cup fixture, leaving the hosts three calendar days between matches against the visitors' seven.
Line-ups
Lech Poznan
Starting XI: 1. Mateusz Lis, 2. Joel Pereira, 7. Yannick Agnero, 10. Patrik Walemark, 14. Leo Bengtsson, 15. Michal Gurgul, 21. Pablo Rodriguez Delgado, 22. Radoslaw Murawski, 43. Antoni Kozubal, 59. Terry Yegbe, 72. Mateusz Skrzypczak
Substitutes: 5. Gustav Berggren, 11. Daniel Hakans, 20. Robert Gumny, 24. Filip Jagiello, 31. Wiktor Obremski, 33. Mateusz Pruchniewski, 44. Eryk Sledzinski, 55. Piotr Bartczak, 56. Wojciech Szymczak, 77. Palma Oseguera, 90. Hubert Janyszka
Coach: Niels Frederiksen
Wisla Krakow
Starting XI: 1. Marcel Lubik, 2. Julian Lelieveld, 6. Alan Uryga, 7. Julius Ertlthaler, 9. Angel Rodado, 10. Frederico Fonseca Pires de Almeida Duarte, 12. James Igbekeme, 29. Darijo Grujcic, 34. Raul Giger, 41. Kacper Duda, 52. Jakub Krzyzanowski
Substitutes: 4. Rafal Mikulec, 13. Maxence Maisonneuve, 17. Marko Bozic, 23. Victor Meseguer, 32. Oliwier Plawinski, 50. Mariusz Kutwa, 93. Bartosz Neugebauer, 97. Wiktor Biedrzycki
Coach: Mariusz Jop
Our pick: home advantage with draw protection
Our bet is Handicap 1 (0) 1.33. Lech's league record makes backing the hosts preferable to trusting Wisla to translate their home results into away points. The leaders have won nine of 11 league games, while their six home fixtures have produced five wins and one draw. A home goal difference of 17:3 is the strongest argument: Lech have combined scoring power with fewer concessions in Poznan.
Wisla have taken three draws and three defeats from six league trips, scoring seven goals and conceding 11. That contrast favours Lech, but the visitors' frequency of away draws makes protection against a level finish useful. With Handicap 1 (0), a Lech victory wins the bet, a draw returns the stake and an away victory loses it.
The caution concerns Lech's recent defending rather than their ability to create a winning margin: they have conceded in each of their last five matches across all competitions. Wisla therefore do not need to control the game to threaten the selection. Even so, Lech's league scoring average of 2.64 goals per match supports backing their attack to compensate for a concession. The expected score is 2:1 to Lech.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 1 (0) 1.33 backs Lech's superior home record without requiring an outright-win bet. Wisla's winless away campaign supports the selection, while their tendency to draw on the road makes the refund provision relevant.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Siarka Tarnobrzegaway0:1
- Legia Warsawaway2:1
- Sunderlandhome1:1
- Korona Kielcehome6:1
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenhome0:4
- Rakow Czestochowahome2:1
- Widzew Lodzaway0:0
- Legia Warsawaway0:2
- Piast Gliwiceaway4:3
- KS Dalin Mysleniceaway4:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 32:11 | 31 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 21:11 | 28 |
| 3 | Legia Warsaw | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 23:11 | 24 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19:9 | 24 |
| 5 | Katowice | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 25:19 | 21 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 24:20 | 21 |
| 7 | Wisla Krakow | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20:18 | 21 |
| 8 | Zaglebie Lubin | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15:15 | 19 |
Head-to-head
- 13.03.2022Wisla Krakow1:1Lech PoznanPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 17.09.2021Lech Poznan5:0Wisla KrakowPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 08.05.2021Wisla Krakow1:2Lech PoznanPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 19.12.2020Lech Poznan0:1Wisla KrakowPoland. Ekstraklasa
- 08.03.2020Wisla Krakow1:1Lech PoznanPoland. Ekstraklasa
About the match
- 31 October · 12:30 New York
- Venue: INEA stadion (Poznan), Poznanʹ
Odds
odds before kick-off
Home favouritism without a decisive market shift
Lech are the 1X2 favourites at a margin-free market probability of 54.5%. Wisla's away-win probability is 22.9%, close to the draw at 22.6%. The home advantage is clear in the pricing, but the market still assigns substantial weight to Lech dropping points.
BTTS carries a 64.3% probability, while Under 3.5 goals is marginally preferred at 55.4%. These assessments distinguish goals at both ends from a particularly high total. None of the listed markets has shown a noticeable line movement over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.48
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +33 $