Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar: Eredivisie Match Prediction
Ajax
AZ AlkmaarMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.25 won
Match result
Ajax 1:0 AZ Alkmaar (1:0, 0:0)
In the Netherlands Eredivisie, Ajax secured a 1:0 win against AZ Alkmaar. The first half ended 1:0, while the second half finished 0:0. Our prediction for this fixture was Individual Total 1 Over (1.5), but because the home team scored only one goal, the bet lost.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.38 — the bet lost.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4.5) at 1.25 — the bet won.
Ajax host AZ Alkmaar at the Johan Cruyff Arena in round 11 of the Eredivisie. Ajax are second on 21 points, three behind Feyenoord; fifth-placed AZ trail their hosts by one point. PSV and Twente also have 20 points, so the chasing order can change.
Ajax: away success masks home weaknesses
Recent results and scoring patterns
Ajax have won three consecutive matches against Groningen, Atalanta and Sparta Rotterdam. Their last five games brought three wins, one draw and one defeat, with 11 goals scored and six conceded. They scored in every match, but the victory over Atalanta was their only clean sheet.
Where the balance changes
- The league attack averages 2.9 goals per match, with 29 scored across ten rounds.
- All five away league games ended in victory; at home, Ajax have one win, three draws and one defeat.
- Their home goal balance is 11 scored and nine conceded, with no clean sheet in those five fixtures.
- BTTS and matches containing at least three goals each occurred in eight of their ten league outings.
Personnel and attacking options
Michel Sanchez leads the rebuild after a fifth-place finish with 56 points last season. Julian Brandt has two goals and two assists in three league appearances; Jorthy Mokio has two goals and one assist, while Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare has scored twice. Steven Berghuis and Anton Gaaei are unavailable through injury, Caio Henrique has a thigh problem, and Simon Adingra is still building fitness.
- Sparta Rotterdamaway2:1
- Atalantahome2:0
- Groningenaway5:2
- Hajduk Splitaway1:2
- N.E.C.home1:1
AZ: productive travels, uneven finishing
A mixed five-match sequence
AZ have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding seven. Their European victories over Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Ararat-Armenia contrast with a winless run across the three league fixtures in that period: defeats to Feyenoord and Twente, separated by a draw at Cambuur.
Strengths and pressure points
- AZ have collected three wins and a draw from five away league games, scoring 11 and conceding seven.
- Their overall league record is six wins, two draws and two defeats, with a 20–12 goal balance.
- They have three league clean sheets; BTTS occurred in five of ten matches and at least three goals in four.
- They failed to score in two of their last five games, both against domestic opponents.
Smit approaches a return
Attacking midfielder Kees Smit, absent since 20 September, has a strong chance of returning against Ajax, although his participation is not confirmed. Ro-Zangelo Daal has one goal in three listed league appearances, while Peer Koopmeiners has one assist over the same number of appearances.
- Twentehome0:2
- Ararat - Armeniaaway4:0
- Cambuuraway2:2
- Hapoel Be'er Shevahome2:1
- Feyenoordaway0:2
The recent matchup belongs to AZ
Across 13 official meetings in five years, AZ have eight wins to Ajax's one, with four draws. The latest eight contain six AZ victories and two draws, with the aggregate scoring standing at 19–5. Ajax were beaten twice and drew once in the three Amsterdam fixtures within that sequence. The most recent meeting finished 1–1 in February, following AZ's 6–0 cup victory in January.
- 08.02.2026AZ Alkmaar1:1AjaxNetherlands. Eredivisie
- 14.01.2026AZ Alkmaar6:0AjaxNetherlands. KNVB Beker
- 18.10.2025Ajax0:2AZ AlkmaarNetherlands. Eredivisie
- 16.03.2025Ajax2:2AZ AlkmaarNetherlands. Eredivisie
- 14.01.2025AZ Alkmaar2:0AjaxNetherlands. KNVB Beker
Selection information remains incomplete
Line-ups
Ajax
Starting XI: 1. Marc-Andre ter Stegen, 2. Lucas Rosa, 4. Sofyan Amrabat, 5. Owen Wijndal, 8. Julian Brandt, 15. Youri Baas, 18. Davy Klaassen, 24. Jorthy Mokio, 30. Aaron Bouwman, 68. Abdellah Ouazane, 99. Toluwalase Emmanuel Arokodare
Substitutes: 6. Thilo Kehrer, 10. Oscar Gloukh, 17. Daley Blind, 21. Jofre Torrents, 23. Steven Berghuis, 26. Maarten Paes, 28. Yves Bissouma, 36. Dies Janse, 38. Marcos Leonardo, 43. Rayane Bounida, 49. Diego Pugno, 67. Mohamed Abdalla
Coach: Miguel Angel Sanchez Munoz
AZ Alkmaar
Starting XI: 3. Wouter Goes, 4. Lewis Schouten, 6. Peer Koopmeiners, 7. Weslley Patati, 9. Mexx Meerdink, 11. Ro-Zangelo Daal, 17. Valdemar Byskov, 21. Dave Kwakman, 22. Elijah Dijkstra, 28. Jari De Busser, 34. Mees de Wit
Substitutes: 1. Rome Jayden Owusu-Oduro, 2. Seiya Maikuma, 5. Mateo Chavez Garcia, 8. Jordy Clasie, 14. Calvin Stengs, 18. Bendeguz Kovacs, 20. Andrea Natali, 27. Wassim Bouziane, 29. Wesley Hoedt, 30. Denso Kasius, 54. Jerolldino Bergraaf, 75. Hessel de Wit
Coach: Leeroy Echteld
Our pick: Ajax to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.38. Ajax have scored 29 goals in 10 Eredivisie matches, averaging 2.9 per game. They have also reached the required threshold in each of their last three competitive outings. The selection targets their scoring rather than a home win: defensive lapses need not prevent it from landing.
The venue-specific figures are more restrained, with 11 Ajax goals in five home league games. AZ have conceded at least twice in each of their last three Eredivisie fixtures, making their recent league defending the clearest opening for the hosts. Ajax's home results and difficult record in this matchup remain reasons for caution, rather than reasons to demand a winning margin. A plausible score is 2–2.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.38 is the preferred play: Ajax can clear the scoring threshold even if AZ take points. The case rests on the hosts' attacking output, without requiring a clean sheet or victory.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Sparta Rotterdamaway2:1
- Atalantahome2:0
- Groningenaway5:2
- Hajduk Splitaway1:2
- N.E.C.home1:1
- Twentehome0:2
- Ararat - Armeniaaway4:0
- Cambuuraway2:2
- Hapoel Be'er Shevahome2:1
- Feyenoordaway0:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 | Twente | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18:18 | 19 |
Head-to-head
- 08.02.2026AZ Alkmaar1:1AjaxNetherlands. Eredivisie
- 14.01.2026AZ Alkmaar6:0AjaxNetherlands. KNVB Beker
- 18.10.2025Ajax0:2AZ AlkmaarNetherlands. Eredivisie
- 16.03.2025Ajax2:2AZ AlkmaarNetherlands. Eredivisie
- 14.01.2025AZ Alkmaar2:0AjaxNetherlands. KNVB Beker
About the match
- 31 October · 16:00 New York
- Venue: Johan Cruyff Arena (Amsterdam), Amsterdam
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market preference meets conflicting evidence
Ajax are the market favourites, with a margin-free home-win probability of 57.1%; AZ are assigned 22.1% and the draw 20.8%. That preference aligns with the hosts' stronger recent results, but their home record and AZ's head-to-head advantage complicate the assessment. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours.
BTTS is priced as the more likely scoring scenario at 67.1%. The Over/Under market is almost evenly divided over whether the game reaches four goals, with 49% assigned to Over. Confidence in both attacks scoring is therefore higher than confidence in a particularly high total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Odds
- 1.41
- Odds at prediction
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 62%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.41
- Potential win
- 41 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.48
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $