Portugal vs Denmark: UEFA Nations League Match Prediction
Portugal
DenmarkPortugal host Denmark at Municipal Stadium in Braga on 14 November in the fifth round of UEFA Nations League Group 4. Portugal have secured a quarter-final place; Denmark still need points to qualify. Kick-off is at 14:45 America/New_York time, with light rain forecast and a temperature of 14°C.
Portugal: winning run meets a changed squad
Results and home balance
Portugal have won four consecutive matches since their World Cup defeat by Spain. Most recently, they won 2:1 at home over Norway. They lead the standings with 12 points. Their two home matches in this competition brought two wins and a combined goal balance of 3:1.
Attacking output and defensive exposure
- Portugal average 2.25 goals per match in this Nations League campaign.
- BTTS occurred in three of four fixtures, with only one clean sheet.
- Three of four matches finished Over 2.5 goals, a short sample.
Absences and available options
Cristiano Ronaldo announced his international retirement on 5 November. Nuno Mendes is out with a bruised thigh, Francisco Conceicao with a shoulder injury, and Nuno Tavares is also injured. Tomas Araujo and Rafael Leao have not joined the squad. These absences reduce Portugal's established options on the flanks.
Flavio Nazinho, Alberto Costa and Gustavo Varela could make their debuts. Goncalo Ramos and Joao Cancelo each have a tournament goal, while Joao Felix has an assist.
- Norwayhome2:1
- Denmarkaway4:2
- Norwayaway2:1
- Waleshome1:0
- Spainhome0:1
Denmark: consistent scoring, uneven resistance
Recent results and away form
Denmark have three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. They scored in every game in that sequence and most recently won 1:0 at Wales. Their tournament return is six points, six behind Portugal.
Away from home, one win and one defeat have produced three goals scored and three conceded. The clean sheet at Wales followed a less secure trip to Norway.
Where the results split
- Denmark have scored seven and conceded seven in four group fixtures.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in two of four matches.
Christensen unavailable
Andreas Christensen will miss the November internationals because he is not fully ready after injury, removing an established defensive option against the group's leading attack. Brian Riemer said the defender was deeply disappointed to miss the call-up because he loves representing Denmark.
- Walesaway1:0
- Portugalhome2:4
- Waleshome2:0
- Norwayaway2:3
- Ukrainehome2:1
Recent meetings favour Portugal, with goals at both ends
Portugal have won two of the three official meetings over the last five years, with Denmark winning the other. The sequence runs from Denmark's 1:0 victory to Portugal's 5:2 home success and 4:2 away win in October. The two latest encounters were high-scoring, but the earlier result limits conclusions from this small sample.
- 01.10.2026Denmark2:4PortugalUEFA Nations League - League A
- 23.03.2025Portugal5:2DenmarkUEFA Nations League - League A - Play-off
- 20.03.2025Denmark1:0PortugalUEFA Nations League - League A - Play-off
- 08.10.2015Portugal1:0DenmarkUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 14.10.2014Denmark0:1PortugalUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
Braga prepares a farewell tribute
Before kick-off, Portugal will honour Ronaldo, with every player entering the field in a number-seven shirt and a symbolic gesture planned for the seventh minute.
Our prediction: Portugal to score twice
Portugal’s attack is the focus in Braga: our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.47. The hosts average 2.25 goals in this Nations League campaign and have scored at least twice in each of their last three matches. Denmark have conceded seven goals across four rounds, with both defeats involving at least three goals against. That vulnerability makes the home scoring threshold more appealing than relying on the match result.
The main reservation is Portugal’s reduced attacking depth. According to media reports, Ronaldo has retired from international football, Conceicao is injured and Leao has not joined the squad. Portugal’s home return is also more modest: three goals in two tournament games. Andreas Christensen’s absence weakens Denmark’s defensive options, though, while the visitors’ need for points could leave space if they chase the game. Predicted score: 2:1.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.47 is our selection. Portugal’s recent scoring output supports the two-goal target, although the attacking absences keep confidence measured.
FAQ
When does Portugal — Denmark kick off?
The match starts on 14.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Municipal (Braga).
What is the prediction for Portugal — Denmark?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.47.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Portugal win — 64%, draw — 21%, Denmark win — 16%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Norwayhome2:1
- Denmarkaway4:2
- Norwayaway2:1
- Waleshome1:0
- Spainhome0:1
- Walesaway1:0
- Portugalhome2:4
- Waleshome2:0
- Norwayaway2:3
- Ukrainehome2:1
Standings · Group 4
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portugal | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9:4 | 12 |
| 2 | Denmark | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:7 | 6 |
| 3 | Wales | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:5 | 3 |
| 4 | Norway | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:8 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 01.10.2026Denmark2:4PortugalUEFA Nations League - League A
- 23.03.2025Portugal5:2DenmarkUEFA Nations League - League A - Play-off
- 20.03.2025Denmark1:0PortugalUEFA Nations League - League A - Play-off
- 08.10.2015Portugal1:0DenmarkUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
- 14.10.2014Denmark0:1PortugalUEFA European Championship (Qualification)
About the match
- 14 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Municipal (Braga), Braga
- Weather: 14° · precip. 73% · wind 1.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 13.11 15:00
Portugal favoured without a late market shift
The margin-adjusted 1X2 probabilities are 63.7% for Portugal, 20.6% for the draw and 15.7% for Denmark. None of the listed lines has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours.
Under 3.5 goals carries 59.8%, while BTTS is assessed at 57.1%. The market favours both teams scoring without the total reaching four goals.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.47
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 64%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match