Troyes AC vs RC Lens: Ligue 1 Match Prediction
Troyes AC
RC LensMatch result
Troyes AC 1:3 RC Lens (1:2, 0:1)
In France. Ligue 1, Troyes AC faced RC Lens, ending in a 1:3 away win for the visitors. The match saw scores of 1:2 in the first half and 0:1 in the second half. Our prediction was W2 (away win), and the bet won successfully.
Our prediction: W2 at 1.87 — the bet won.
Troyes host Lens at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 1's seventh round on 17 October. The hosts are 17th with four points; Lens are 10th with seven and seeking their first away league victory of the season.
Troyes: scoring drought compounds defensive problems
Recent results and home form
Troyes have four defeats and one draw in their last five matches. That includes a friendly draw with Dijon. At home in the league, they have two goals scored and eight conceded.
Strengths and weaknesses
Troyes average 0.67 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per league match. They have one league clean sheet but conceded in each of their last five matches. Only two of six league fixtures featured Over 2.5 goals, and two produced BTTS: their defensive problems have rarely coincided with goals at both ends.
Availability and selection
Ismael Boura, Yvann Titi, Anis Ouzenadji and Yacouba Kone are injured. Merwan Ifnaoui and Paolo Gozzi have returned to training and are ready to play.
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
- Angers SCOaway0:2
- Lille OSCaway0:2
- Strasbourghome2:6
Lens: greater attacking output, limited away returns
A mixed run across three competitions
Lens have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five outings. A 2:1 league victory over Lyon was followed by a 0:2 Champions League defeat against Sporting on 13 October.
Away in the league, they have one draw and two defeats, with four goals scored and six conceded.
Goals at both ends
Lens have scored 11 goals in six league matches, conceded ten and kept no clean sheets. BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in five of those six fixtures. Their attack has outperformed Troyes's, but the defensive returns have limited their points total across this six-game sample.
Suspension and injury absences
Matthieu Udol is suspended following his dismissal against Lyon. Maik Nawrocki and Abdallah Sima are injured. Jonathan Gradit will also miss out after training individually, with the coach unwilling to risk his health.
- Sporting Clube de Portugalhome0:2
- Lyonhome2:1
- Standard Liegeaway2:0
- AS Monacoaway1:2
- Le Mansaway2:2
Recent meetings have favoured Lens
Lens won four of the five official meetings over the last five years and drew the other. The latest encounter ended 4:2 to Lens in the Coupe de France in February 2026; three of the five meetings exceeded 2.5 goals.
- 04.02.2026Troyes AC2:4RC LensCoupe de France
- 28.01.2023Troyes AC1:1RC LensFrance. Ligue 1
- 09.09.2022RC Lens1:0Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 14.05.2022Troyes AC1:3RC LensFrance. Ligue 1
- 05.11.2021RC Lens4:0Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
The coaches' pre-match messages
Stephane Dumont has called for significantly greater efficiency from Troyes. Yannick Cahuzac said everyone apart from Nawrocki and Sima was available, although Udol's suspension and Gradit's withdrawal further restrict his selection.
Line-ups
Troyes AC
Starting XI: 2. Мароннье Лю, 4. Michelle Junior Diaz, 5. Paolo Gozzi, 6. Adrien Monfray, 8. Mouhamed Diop, 10. Merwan Ifnaoui, 17. Antoine Mille, 20. Renaud Ripart, 23. Timothee Nkada, 29. Karim Dermane, 33. Patrick Beach
Substitutes: 7. Kandet Diawara, 9. Jeremy Le Douaron, 11. Iron Gomis, 22. Hugo Picard, 26. Alexandre Phliponeau, 31. Noah Donkor, 34. Lassana Simakha, 37. Christ Batola, 40. Yored Hillel Konate
Coach: Stephane Dumont
RC Lens
Starting XI: 2. Ruben Aguilar, 5. Andrija Bulatovic, 7. Florian Sotoca, 8. Yassine Titraoui, 10. Florian Thauvin, 11. Odsonne Edouard, 20. Jean-Clair Todibo, 22. Michal Skoras, 25. Ismaelo Ganiou, 32. Kyllian Anderson Antonio, 40. Robin Risser
Substitutes: 6. Samson Baidoo, 9. Thorgan Hazard, 16. Mathieu Gorgelin, 21. Amadou Haidara, 23. Saud Abdulhamid, 27. Michael Cuisance, 28. Junior Kadile, 29. Franjo Ivanovic, 38. Mezian Soares
Coach: Yannick Cahuzac
Our pick: Lens to take the points
Our bet is W2 1.87. Troyes have conceded 13 goals in six league matches and remain winless at home. Their return of four goals also leaves little room to recover when they fall behind. Lens have scored 11 in the same number of games: their stronger attacking output is the main reason to back the visitors rather than expect a Troyes recovery.
Lens have won four of the last five official meetings, but this is not a risk-free selection: they have yet to win away in the league and have no league clean sheet this season. Udol's suspension and the injuries to Nawrocki and Sima reduce their options, while Gradit has trained individually and the coach does not intend to risk his health. Troyes are without Boura, Titi, Ouzenadji and Kone. The home side's scoring difficulties make the visitors' defensive weaknesses less decisive in this matchup. Predicted score: 1:2.
Final betting verdict
W2 1.87 is our selection, with Lens's attacking edge outweighing their poor away returns. Keep confidence measured: the visitors' defensive absences make a narrow win more credible than a comfortable one.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
- Angers SCOaway0:2
- Lille OSCaway0:2
- Strasbourghome2:6
- Sporting Clube de Portugalhome0:2
- Lyonhome2:1
- Standard Liegeaway2:0
- AS Monacoaway1:2
- Le Mansaway2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Paris | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 11 |
| 7 | RC Lens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 8 | Stade Brestois 29 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 13:10 | 9 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:16 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4:8 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 04.02.2026Troyes AC2:4RC LensCoupe de France
- 28.01.2023Troyes AC1:1RC LensFrance. Ligue 1
- 09.09.2022RC Lens1:0Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 14.05.2022Troyes AC1:3RC LensFrance. Ligue 1
- 05.11.2021RC Lens4:0Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
About the match
- 17 October · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes), Trua
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market confidence is measured rather than overwhelming
Lens are the 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free market probability of 52.8%, compared with 24.4% for the draw and 22.9% for a Troyes home win. There has been no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
The goals markets favour Over 2.5 at 60.1% and BTTS at 60.8%. Lens's scoring pattern supports both, but Troyes's recent scoring drought makes BTTS more dependent on an attacking improvement from the hosts.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Odds
- 1.87
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 53%
- Market estimate
- 55%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.87
- Potential win
- 87 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.74
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +87 $
