Troyes AC vs Le Mans: Ligue 1 Match Prediction
Troyes AC
Le MansMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.44 void
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.38 lost
Match result
Troyes AC 2:0 Le Mans (1:0, 1:0)
Troyes AC secured a 2:0 victory over Le Mans in France. Ligue 1. The match ended with period scores of 1:0 and 1:0 in favor of the home team. Our recommended prediction was Individual Total 1 Over (1), and the bet won following the final result.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.44 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.44 — the bet was void.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4.5) at 1.38 — the bet lost.
Troyes AC host Le Mans at Stade de l'Aube in round 9 of Ligue 1 on 31 October. The hosts are 17th with five points, while their visitors are 15th. A home win would reverse that order; neither side has more than one league victory this season.
Troyes: home defence undermines progress
Recent results and scoring
Troyes are winless in five matches across all competitions, with two draws and three defeats. That sequence includes a friendly against Dijon. Their latest league outing, a 0:0 draw at Toulouse, followed home defeats against Marseille and Lens.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Two clean sheets in eight league games offer some defensive resistance, but 16 goals conceded means an average of 2 per match.
- Four home fixtures have produced no wins, one draw, three defeats and a 3:11 goal balance: defending at Stade de l'Aube has been particularly costly.
- Only five league goals have been scored; BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in three of eight matches.
Personnel and selection
Timothee Nkada has one goal in three league appearances in the supplied player record.
- Toulouseaway0:0
- RC Lenshome1:3
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
- Angers SCOaway0:2
Le Mans: more goals, no clean sheets
Form at home and away
Le Mans have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches, including a friendly. They followed a 0:3 home defeat to Toulouse with a 1:1 draw at Auxerre. Their four league away games have brought two draws, two losses and a 5:8 goal balance.
Attacking output versus defensive exposure
- Eleven league goals give Le Mans a scoring average of 1.38, substantially above the hosts' output.
- They have conceded in all eight league matches, with 16 goals allowed overall.
- BTTS has landed in seven of eight fixtures and Over 2.5 in six; eight matches remain a limited sample.
Returning players and selection questions
Defender Theo Eyoum, midfielders Martin Rossignol and Edwin Quarshie, and forward Rayan Mandeng returned to training on 24 October. That does not confirm match readiness. Lucas Buades has one league goal in two appearances, while Lucas Calodat has one assist in three.
- Auxerreaway1:1
- Toulousehome0:3
- Paris Saint-Germainaway1:3
- En Avant de Guingampaway1:2
- Lorienthome2:1
Recent meetings favour the visitors
Le Mans are unbeaten in the two official meetings over the past five years: a 2:2 home draw in October 2025 and a 2:0 victory at Troyes in January 2026. Both were in Ligue 2. This small head-to-head sample does not establish a reliable scoring pattern.
- 31.01.2026Troyes AC0:2Le MansFrance. Ligue 2
- 03.10.2025Le Mans2:2Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 2
- 18.10.2019Troyes AC2:1Le MansFrance. Ligue 2
- 24.02.2012Troyes AC2:1Le MansSecond League
- 26.09.2011Le Mans1:1Troyes ACSecond League
Scorer attribution needs caution
The latest scoring news assigns Louis Mafouta to Troyes with four goals, while the supplied season record lists him at Le Mans with one; those conflicting entries prevent a firm claim about his contribution here, and no expert opinions are provided.
Line-ups
Troyes AC
Starting XI: 2. Lucas Maronnier, 4. Michelle Junior Diaz, 5. Paolo Gozzi, 6. Adrien Monfray, 8. Mouhamed Diop, 10. Merwan Ifnaoui, 17. Antoine Mille, 20. Renaud Ripart, 23. Timothee Nkada, 29. Karim Dermane, 40. Yored Hillel Konate
Substitutes: 7. Kandet Diawara, 9. Jeremy Le Douaron, 11. Iron Gomis, 14. Ismael Boura, 22. Hugo Picard, 26. Alexandre Phliponeau, 33. Patrick Beach, 36. Idrissa Soukouna, 44. Yvann Titi
Coach: Stephane Dumont
Le Mans
Starting XI: 8. Alexandre Lauray, 9. Antoine Rabillard, 13. Habib Diallo, 14. Louis Mafouta, 15. Noa Boisse, 16. Raul Torrente, 17. Samuel Yohou, 18. Lucas Buades, 22. Lucas Calodat, 29. Lucas Bretelle, 98. Nicolas Kocik
Substitutes: 1. Ewan Hatfout, 5. Harold Voyer, 7. Billal Brahimi, 10. Jean Vercruysse, 20. William Harhouz, 23. Daouda Traore, 25. Dame Gueye, 26. Rayan Bamba, 76. Yasser Larouci
Coach: Patrick Videira
Our Forecast
The recommended bet is Home team Over (1) goals 1.44. Troyes have scored only five goals in eight Ligue 1 matches; the available data do not specify the settlement rules for this line. Le Mans have conceded 16 goals in eight rounds without keeping a clean sheet, including eight goals across four away matches.
Troyes have scored three goals in four home league matches at Stade de l’Aube, which limits confidence in their attack. The latest meeting with Le Mans ended in a 0:2 defeat for Troyes AC on 31.01.2026; an earlier 2:2 draw took place on 03.10.2025. With the market giving Troyes only a modest home edge, the team total is preferable to 1X2: the bet does not require a home win.
The available data do not confirm Troyes AC injury or suspension updates. Theo Eyum, Marten Rossignol, Edwin Kouarshi and Ryan Manden are among the Le Mans players returning to training.
Probable score: Troyes AC 2:1 Le Mans.
Conclusion
Home team Over (1) goals 1.44 targets Le Mans’ defensive weakness. The hosts’ low scoring rate remains relevant.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Toulouseaway0:0
- RC Lenshome1:3
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
- Angers SCOaway0:2
- Auxerreaway1:1
- Toulousehome0:3
- Paris Saint-Germainaway1:3
- En Avant de Guingampaway1:2
- Lorienthome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Angers SCO | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 | Troyes AC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 | Le Mans | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 31.01.2026Troyes AC0:2Le MansFrance. Ligue 2
- 03.10.2025Le Mans2:2Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 2
- 18.10.2019Troyes AC2:1Le MansFrance. Ligue 2
- 24.02.2012Troyes AC2:1Le MansSecond League
- 26.09.2011Le Mans1:1Troyes ACSecond League
About the match
- 31 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Stade de l'Aube (Troyes), Trua
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow home preference in the market
Troyes are marginal 1X2 favourites at 41.2%, against 31.5% for Le Mans and 27.4% for the draw. That is a modest home preference rather than strong confidence, despite the visitors' higher league position. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 52.2% market probability, while BTTS is assessed at 57.1%. Those expectations sit between Le Mans' frequent scoring exchanges and Troyes' limited attacking output. Both markets have also remained stable; the hosts' low scoring frequency is the clearest counterweight to the visitors' open matches.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.44
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.44
- Potential win
- 44 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.44
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +44 $