Toulouse vs Troyes AC: Ligue 1 Match Prediction
Toulouse
Troyes ACToulouse host Troyes AC at Stadium Municipal on 25 October in Ligue 1's eighth round. The hosts are 12th with nine points; the visitors sit 17th with four. Toulouse can move clear of the teams level with them, while Troyes need points to improve their position near the bottom.
Toulouse: scoring freely, conceding regularly
Recent results and home record
Toulouse have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches, including a friendly loss to Pau. They most recently won 3–0 at Le Mans after a 2–2 draw at Monaco. Their league home record is less convincing: one win and two defeats, with three goals scored and five conceded.
Where the balance lies
- Toulouse scored in all five recent matches, offering a more consistent attacking threat than Troyes.
- Only one clean sheet in seven league games leaves little margin for attacking mistakes.
- Five of those seven league fixtures finished Over 2.5 goals; BTTS occurred in four.
Available players and attacking contributors
Edwin Quarshie, Theo Eyoum, Djibril Sidibe, Erwan Colas and Martin Rossignol have returned following injuries. Casper Tengstedt and Aron Donnum each have a goal and an assist in two listed league appearances; Jacen Russell-Rowe has one goal in two. These contributions identify attacking options without establishing who will start.
- Le Mansaway3:0
- AS Monacoaway2:2
- Pauhome2:3
- Le Havrehome3:2
- Lorientaway2:2
Troyes AC: limited output compounds defensive losses
A difficult sequence
Troyes are winless in five matches across all competitions, with four defeats and a friendly draw at Dijon. Their latest results were a 2–0 loss to Marseille and a 3–1 defeat by Lens. Away in the league, they have one win and two losses, scoring twice and conceding five.
The main pressure points
- Five goals in seven league games, averaging 0.71 per match, restrict their ability to recover after conceding.
- They have allowed 16 league goals, an average of 2.29, with only one clean sheet.
- Three of seven league games produced BTTS and three finished Over 2.5: defensive weakness alone has not consistently produced high totals.
Fitness and selection
Ismael Boura remains doubtful following an injury sustained on 8 August, while Ilan Jourdren has returned to the squad. Timothee Nkada has one goal in two listed league appearances.
- RC Lenshome1:3
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
- Angers SCOaway0:2
- Lille OSCaway0:2
Previous meetings favour Toulouse
Toulouse won both official meetings in the past five years: 3–0 away in August 2022 and 4–1 at home in February 2023.
- 01.02.2023Toulouse4:1Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 14.08.2022Troyes AC0:3ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 09.07.2022Toulouse6:1Troyes ACFriendly Club Tournament
- 06.02.2021Troyes AC1:1ToulouseFrance. Ligue 2
- 03.10.2020Toulouse0:0Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 2
A revised date and a survival campaign
The fixture was moved from 24 to 25 October because of mass protests in France. Troyes' season is framed around avoiding relegation, consistent with their current position.
Our Prediction
Toulouse host Troyes AC having scored in all five of their latest matches, with 12 goals across that sequence and two clean-sheet wins. The pick is home win at 1.57. Toulouse enter after a 3:0 away win over Le Mans; their league record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats, with 12 goals in seven rounds.
Troyes have lost five of seven league matches, scoring only 5 goals and conceding 16, an average of 2.29 per game. They have suffered four defeats in their last five matches and conceded in all five, most recently in a 1:3 home loss to Lens.
Toulouse won both official meetings over the past five years, 3:0 and 4:1. Edwin Quarshie, Théo Eyoum and Djibril Sidibé return for the hosts, while Ismaël Boura remains doubtful for Troyes. The market assigns Toulouse a 59.5% win probability. Expected score: 2:0 to Toulouse.
Conclusion
Home win at 1.57 is the selection, with Toulouse’s scoring form matched against a Troyes defence conceding more than two goals per league game.
FAQ
When does Toulouse — Troyes AC kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 12:15 (New York), Municipal (Toulouse).
What is the prediction for Toulouse — Troyes AC?
Our pick is W1 at 1.57.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Toulouse win — 63%, draw — 21%, Troyes AC win — 16%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Le Mansaway3:0
- AS Monacoaway2:2
- Pauhome2:3
- Le Havrehome3:2
- Lorientaway2:2
- RC Lenshome1:3
- Olympique de Marseillehome0:2
- Dijon FCOaway2:2
- Angers SCOaway0:2
- Lille OSCaway0:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stade Brestois 29 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14:12 | 9 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 13 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:11 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 01.02.2023Toulouse4:1Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 1
- 14.08.2022Troyes AC0:3ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 09.07.2022Toulouse6:1Troyes ACFriendly Club Tournament
- 06.02.2021Troyes AC1:1ToulouseFrance. Ligue 2
- 03.10.2020Toulouse0:0Troyes ACFrance. Ligue 2
About the match
- 25 October · 12:15 New York
- Venue: Municipal (Toulouse)
- Weather: 18° · precip. 48% · wind 5.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 25.10 02:10
The market backs the hosts, but not without reservations
Toulouse are the 1X2 favourites at a margin-free market probability of 59.5%, against 22.6% for the draw and 17.9% for Troyes. Their stronger scoring record helps explain that gap, although their home results are weaker than their recent away performances.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 59% probability and BTTS 56.7%. The latter requires Troyes to contribute despite their low attacking output; the seven-match season sample remains small. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Current odds
- 1.57
- Odds at prediction
- 1.65
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 60%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.65
- Potential win
- 65 $
- Status
- pending
