RC Lens vs Paris: Ligue 1 Match Prediction
RC Lens
ParisMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.29 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.39 lost
Match result
RC Lens 2:1 Paris (0:1, 2:0)
In France Ligue 1, the match between RC Lens and Paris finished with a 2:1 result. The periods ended 0:1 and 2:0. With RC Lens scoring two goals, our prediction for Individual Total 1 Over (1) was successful and the bet won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.39 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.29 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4.5) at 1.39 — the bet lost.
RC Lens host Paris at Bollaert-Delelis in Ligue 1’s eighth round on 24 October. The visitors are third, level on 14 points with leaders Lyon; Lens are eighth with 10. Paris have a chance to protect their place in the leading group.
Lens: league goals, European setbacks
Recent form and home output
Lens have three wins and two defeats in their last five matches, scoring seven goals and conceding seven. That sequence includes a friendly victory at Standard Liege. Their latest league results were wins over Lyon, 2–1, and Troyes, 3–1, but European defeats against Sporting and Club Brugge produced no goals scored and five conceded. The trip to Brugge on 21 October leaves just three days before this fixture.
Strengths and defensive exposure
- Fourteen goals in seven league games show an attack averaging two per match.
- At home, Lens have two wins from three, with seven goals scored and four conceded.
- They have no league clean sheets; BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in six of seven games.
Availability and selection
Jonathan Gradit is ruled out with a muscle injury, while Jhoanner Chavez is unavailable with a thigh injury. Both absences reduce defensive options for a side already conceding regularly.
- Club Bruggeaway0:3
- Troyes ACaway3:1
- Sporting Clube de Portugalhome0:2
- Lyonhome2:1
- Standard Liegeaway2:0
Paris: strong position, uneven away returns
Results and scoring pattern
Paris have won three, drawn one and lost one of their last five, scoring nine and conceding seven. Their latest outing was a 4–3 victory over Rennes on 18 October, following a 1–0 defeat at Lorient. Their away league record is more modest than their overall standing.
Balance across the pitch
- Four wins and only one defeat in seven league matches have kept Paris alongside the leaders.
- Three away games have yielded one win, one draw and one loss, with three goals for and three against.
- Three league clean sheets contrast with Lens’s record; BTTS has occurred in three of seven games and Over 2.5 in four.
Personnel to watch
Maxime Lopez has two goals in his two listed appearances, while Lassine Sinayoko has one goal and two assists across two appearances. Those returns identify attacking contributors, rather than establish the likely lineup.
- Stade Rennaishome4:3
- Lorientaway0:1
- Strasbourghome2:1
- Lyonhome0:0
- Olympique de Marseilleaway3:2
Recent meetings favour Lens
Lens won both official meetings recorded over the past five years: 2–1 at home in October 2025 and 5–0 away in February 2026. That is a clear recent advantage, but two fixtures are too few to establish a dependable scoring pattern for this encounter.
- 14.02.2026Paris0:5RC LensFrance. Ligue 1
- 19.10.2025RC Lens2:1ParisFrance. Ligue 1
- 02.07.2022RC Lens0:0ParisFriendly Club Tournament
- 05.08.2020RC Lens1:2ParisFriendly Club Tournament
- 02.03.2020Paris0:2RC LensFrance. Ligue 2
Weather adds a practical complication
The forecast is 10°C with 1.8 mm of rain, a 100% precipitation probability and wind of 8.8 m/s, gusting to 16.4 m/s. Those conditions could complicate aerial delivery and long passing.
Line-ups
RC Lens
Starting XI: 2. Ruben Aguilar, 6. Samson Baidoo, 7. Florian Sotoca, 10. Florian Thauvin, 14. Matthieu Udol, 20. Jean-Clair Todibo, 21. Amadou Haidara, 23. Saud Abdulhamid, 27. Michael Cuisance, 29. Franjo Ivanovic, 40. Robin Risser
Substitutes: 4. Nidal Celik, 5. Andrija Bulatovic, 8. Yassine Titraoui, 9. Thorgan Hazard, 16. Mathieu Gorgelin, 22. Michal Skoras, 28. Junior Kadile, 32. Kyllian Anderson Antonio, 38. Mezian Soares
Coach: Yannick Cahuzac
Paris
Starting XI: 5. Moustapha Mbow, 6. Otavio Ataide da Silva, 7. Pablo Pagis, 9. Lassine Sinayoko, 10. Ilan Kebbal, 15. Luca Warrick Daeovie Koleosho, 16. Obed Nkambadio, 17. Adama Mohamed Camara, 20. Maxime Lopez, 33. Pierre Lees-Melou, 42. Diego Coppola
Substitutes: 3. Emmanuel Mbemba Nlandu, 8. Eloge Patrick Zabi Gueu, 11. Jean-Philippe Krasso, 18. Omar Sissoko, 23. Rudy Matondo, 25. Yoan Kore, 27. Moses Simon, 28. Thibault De Smet, 50. Ibrahim Meite
Coach: Liam Rosenior
Our pick: Lens to deliver in attack
For RC Lens against Paris at Bollaert-Delelis, our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.39. Lens have scored 14 goals in seven league games, with seven coming in three home fixtures. That attacking output makes the hosts’ scoring line a better focus than backing them to win against a side four points above them.
Paris have conceded in four of their last five matches, offering Lens a route to the two goals needed for this bet to win. The hosts also scored in both recent official meetings, although that small sample deserves limited weight. The main concern is Lens’ failure to score in their two latest Champions League games: their league production has not carried across to Europe. No further confirmed team news is available beyond the absences of Jonathan Gradit and Jhoanner Chavez. Our projected score is 2–1.
The betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.39 targets Lens’ attacking output without requiring a home victory. Two or more home goals win the bet; exactly one returns the stake, while a blank loses it.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Club Bruggeaway0:3
- Troyes ACaway3:1
- Sporting Clube de Portugalhome0:2
- Lyonhome2:1
- Standard Liegeaway2:0
- Stade Rennaishome4:3
- Lorientaway0:1
- Strasbourghome2:1
- Lyonhome0:0
- Olympique de Marseilleaway3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 | RC Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 13 |
| 7 | Stade Rennais | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 15:14 | 13 |
Head-to-head
- 14.02.2026Paris0:5RC LensFrance. Ligue 1
- 19.10.2025RC Lens2:1ParisFrance. Ligue 1
- 02.07.2022RC Lens0:0ParisFriendly Club Tournament
- 05.08.2020RC Lens1:2ParisFriendly Club Tournament
- 02.03.2020Paris0:2RC LensFrance. Ligue 2
About the match
- 24 October · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Bollaert-Delelis (Lens), Lans
Odds
odds before kick-off
A narrow home edge in the market
Lens are slight 1X2 favourites at 39.6%, against 34.4% for Paris and 26.1% for the draw. The home advantage is modest despite the recent head-to-head results. None of the listed markets has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
BTTS is assigned 60.8% and Over 2.5 goals 57.2%. Those assessments fit Lens’s frequent high-scoring league games, but Paris’s lower-scoring away record offers a counterweight. The seven-match league sample limits how firmly either scoring trend can be applied.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.39
- Potential win
- 39 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.4
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +39 $
