Olympique de Marseille vs Toulouse Forecast: Ligue 1
Olympique de Marseille
ToulouseMarseille host Toulouse at the Velodrome on November 1 in Ligue 1’s ninth round. The hosts are ninth with 12 points, two ahead of their 11th-placed visitors.
Marseille: scoring power without defensive security
Recent results and home balance
Marseille have three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. All three league outings were victories, including 5–2 at Angers and 4–3 against Le Havre last time out. They failed to score in the European defeats against Olympiacos and Sturm Graz.
At home in Ligue 1, Marseille have two wins and two losses, with 11 goals scored and eight conceded.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
Marseille average 2.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per league match. Five of their eight fixtures have gone Over 2.5, with two clean sheets and four BTTS results. Their high totals do not always require both teams to score, though eight games offer a limited measure of their scoring form.
Availability and attacking options
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is unavailable and will undergo surgery on the lateral meniscus in his right knee. Amine Harit, Himad Abdelli and Igor Paixao each have two league goals in three appearances.
Bruno Genesio has expressed frustration over the Olympiacos defeat and acknowledged the difficulty of planning to reach the Europa League knockout stage.
- Le Havrehome4:3
- Sturm Grazaway0:1
- Angers SCOaway5:2
- Olympiacos Piraeushome0:1
- Troyes ACaway2:0
Toulouse: unbeaten away, with draws setting the pace
Form across the latest fixtures
Toulouse have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five games. The defeat was a friendly against Pau. Their latest league results were a 2–2 draw at Monaco, a 3–0 victory at Le Mans and a goalless home draw with Troyes.
What travels well and what remains fragile
Toulouse are unbeaten in four league away games, with one win, three draws, nine goals scored and six conceded. Across the season, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.38 conceded.
They have recorded four BTTS results and five Over 2.5 results in eight matches. Their four league draws contrast with Marseille’s none.
Injuries and available contributors
Rafik Messali is ruled out with a thigh injury, while Sion Oppong is doubtful with a calf problem. Casper Tengstedt and Aron Donnum each have one goal and one assist in three league appearances; Jacen Russell-Rowe has one goal in the same number of games.
- Troyes AChome0:0
- Le Mansaway3:0
- AS Monacoaway2:2
- Pauhome2:3
- Le Havrehome3:2
Recent meetings favour Marseille, but rarely quietly
Across nine official meetings in five years, Marseille have five wins, three draws and one defeat. Toulouse won the March cup meeting 3–2 at the Velodrome; Marseille won 1–0 away in the league three days later.
- 07.03.2026Toulouse0:1Olympique de MarseilleFrance. Ligue 1
- 04.03.2026Olympique de Marseille2:3ToulouseCoupe de France
- 29.11.2025Olympique de Marseille2:2ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 06.04.2025Olympique de Marseille3:2ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 31.08.2024Toulouse1:3Olympique de MarseilleFrance. Ligue 1
Match context beyond the team news
Toulouse–Troyes was postponed because of mass protests on October 21. No expert assessment of Marseille–Toulouse is available.
Our Pick
Olympique de Marseille host Toulouse at the Velodrome with 12 points from eight rounds, two ahead of the visitors on 10. The recommended bet is BTTS (both teams to score) - Yes 1.44. Marseille have scored 18 league goals, averaging 2.25 per match, and conceded 13, or 1.63 per match.
Across four home league matches, Marseille have scored 11 and conceded 8. Their latest home fixture finished 4:3, and they have conceded in four of their last five matches in all competitions.
Toulouse have scored nine goals in four league trips, remaining unbeaten with three draws. Marseille have the better recent head-to-head record, but results of 3:2, 2:2 and 3:2 show both sides finding the net.
Marseille will be without Aubameyang. Toulouse are missing Messali and may also be without Oppong. Expected score: 2:1.
Conclusion
BTTS (both teams to score) - Yes 1.44 is the pick: Marseille’s home scoring and conceding record, alongside Toulouse’s away goal return, favour goals at both ends rather than a clean sheet.
FAQ
When does Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse kick off?
The match starts on 01.11.2026 at 14:45 (New York), Velodrome (Marseille).
What is the prediction for Olympique de Marseille — Toulouse?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.44.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Olympique de Marseille win — 50%, draw — 23%, Toulouse win — 27%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Le Havrehome4:3
- Sturm Grazaway0:1
- Angers SCOaway5:2
- Olympiacos Piraeushome0:1
- Troyes ACaway2:0
- Troyes AChome0:0
- Le Mansaway3:0
- AS Monacoaway2:2
- Pauhome2:3
- Le Havrehome3:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | RC Lens | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 9 | Olympique de Marseille | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 18:13 | 12 |
| 10 | Lorient | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | 12 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 12:11 | 10 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:18 | 10 |
Head-to-head
- 07.03.2026Toulouse0:1Olympique de MarseilleFrance. Ligue 1
- 04.03.2026Olympique de Marseille2:3ToulouseCoupe de France
- 29.11.2025Olympique de Marseille2:2ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 06.04.2025Olympique de Marseille3:2ToulouseFrance. Ligue 1
- 31.08.2024Toulouse1:3Olympique de MarseilleFrance. Ligue 1
About the match
- 1 November · 14:45 New York
- Venue: Velodrome (Marseille), Marselʹ
- Weather: 14° · precip. 5% · wind 1.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 01.11 04:10
Market confidence stops short of a majority
Marseille are the 1X2 favourites with a margin-free market probability of 48.2%, below an outright majority. No market has shown a notable move over the past 24 hours.
BTTS at 63.2% is the stronger market preference, while Under 3.5 at 59.4% separates goals at both ends from a particularly high total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.44
- Odds at prediction
- 1.47
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
