Forecast for Le Havre vs Auxerre in Ligue 1
Le Havre
AuxerreMatch result
Le Havre 1:3 Auxerre (0:1, 1:2)
In France. Ligue 1, Auxerre secured a 1:3 victory over Le Havre, with the periods finishing 0:1 and 1:2. A total of four goals were scored during the match, meaning our prediction for Total Over (2) was correct and the bet won.
Our prediction: Total Over (2) at 1.4 — the bet won.
Le Havre host Auxerre at Stade Oceane in Tour 7 of Ligue 1. Le Havre have two points from six matches and Auxerre have six. Both need points to move away from the relegation places. The hosts have scored fewer goals and conceded less; Auxerre have produced more attacking output but have a much weaker defence.
Le Havre: limited scoring and a fragile home record
Le Havre have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches in all competitions. The six-goal friendly against Boulogne lifts that total. Their latest league game ended in a one-goal defeat at Lille.
At home in the league, Le Havre have gone three matches without a win, scoring one goal and conceding three. Their league record contains four goals in six matches, an average of 0.67 per game, and eight conceded. Both teams scored in three of six league fixtures, while matches over the main goal line occurred twice. Le Havre kept one clean sheet.
What works and what does not
- Only four goals in six league matches, averaging 0.67 per game.
- Eight goals conceded, fewer than Auxerre but still a negative defensive balance.
- Both teams scored in three of six league fixtures; matches over the main goal line occurred twice.
- Le Havre kept one clean sheet.
Ayamu Seko is suspended after his red card against Lille. Elias Yelert and Timothe Pembele are ruled out, while Ryan Fofana and Josh Maja are doubts because of a foot contusion and a knee issue respectively. The goalkeeper has reportedly been chosen, but Didier Digard has not disclosed the name; media reports say the decision will be discussed internally before the match.
- Lille OSCaway0:1
- Boulognehome6:1
- Toulouseaway2:3
- Angers SCOhome0:0
- Stade Brestois 29home1:2
Auxerre: productive attack, severe away weakness
Auxerre’s last five matches brought three wins and two defeats. They scored in all five, including the latest away loss at Rennes, where they conceded four and scored one. In Ligue 1, their six-match record contains eight goals for and sixteen against. The away split is three defeats, four goals scored and twelve conceded.
Attack creates chances, defence gives them back
- Auxerre have scored in every one of their last five games.
- Both teams scored in five of six league fixtures.
- Five of six league matches went over the main goal line.
- The average of 2.67 goals conceded per league match is the weakest defensive figure in this pairing.
Archer K. is listed with one goal in one tournament appearance, while Diop has one assist in one appearance. Rémi Labeau-Lascary, Brian Oko and Assane Dioussé are unavailable through injury. Clément Akpa is doubtful after limited training, and Sékou Fofana remains questionable despite returning to training. Arthur Piedfort is expected to be fit after a clear examination. Christ Makosso returns after suspension; Telli Siwe, Marven Senaya and Ryan Manden are back in partial individual work, so their match readiness is not established.
- Stade Rennaisaway1:4
- Clermont Foothome4:3
- Stade Brestois 29home2:1
- Nicehome1:0
- Lyonaway1:3
Head-to-head record favours the hosts
Le Havre have won four of the six official meetings in the last five years, with one draw and one defeat. The most recent meeting, in April, finished 1:1 at Le Havre; before that, Le Havre won three consecutive encounters, including two away victories.
The historical record favours Le Havre, but their current home sample is weaker. The last six meetings produced at least one goal from each side in four cases, while two ended with a clean sheet for one team.
- 05.04.2026Le Havre1:1AuxerreFrance. Ligue 1
- 26.10.2025Auxerre0:1Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 04.05.2025Auxerre1:2Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 01.09.2024Le Havre3:1AuxerreFrance. Ligue 1
- 07.05.2022Le Havre1:2AuxerreFrance. Ligue 2
Squad news and match context
The main confirmed change for Le Havre is Seko’s suspension, alongside three injury concerns or absences affecting defensive and attacking depth. Fofana and Maja are relevant to the available front-line options. The goalkeeper has been chosen but remains undisclosed.
Auxerre recover Makosso from suspension, but their injury list is longer. Labeau-Lascary, Oko and Dioussé are out, while Akpa and Fofana require late checks. Media reports say Piedfort is available, whereas several returning players have only resumed partial training. No additional expert prediction or confirmed starting line-up is provided in the available facts.
Line-ups
Le Havre
Starting XI: 5. Ahmed Touba, 6. Danny Mwanga, 7. Amir Richardson, 9. Josh Maja, 14. Rassoul Ndiaye, 20. Djibril Ouziad, 25. Mbwana Samata, 26. Simon Ebonog, 30. Sota Nakamura, 93. Gauthier Gallon, 97. Lamine N'diaye
Substitutes: 16. Arno Bodart, 17. Kaito Mizuta, 23. Vincent Sasso, 24. Guy Noel Zohouri, 27. Enzo Koffi Vinette, 33. Hakim Dongopandji, 38. Rayan Fofana, 44. Ismail Bouneb, 78. Daren Mosengo
Coach: Didier Digard
Auxerre
Starting XI: 1. Paul Nardi, 4. Axel Tuanzebe, 5. Kevin Danois, 8. Naouirou Mohamed Ahamada, 9. Cameron Archer, 10. Danny Namaso, 15. Christ Makosso, 21. Romain Faivre, 22. Fredrik Oppegard, 27. Lamine Sy, 92. Clement Akpa
Substitutes: 17. Pierre Elimby, 20. Sinaly Diomande, 23. Mamadou Diop, 34. Lamfia Dioubate, 35. Elykia Legros, 44. Mamadou Cissokho, 46. Arthur Piedfort, 47. Youssef Khoudda, 77. Aristide Zossou
Coach: William Still
Our goals prediction
Our pick for Le Havre against Auxerre at Stade Oceane is Total Over (2) 1.4. Auxerre have conceded 12 goals and scored four across three league away games. Their matches have produced at least three goals in five of six league rounds. That makes the visitors’ defensive vulnerability the main route to this bet landing, with their attack also contributing.
Le Havre’s defensive absences strengthen the case: Ayumu Seko is suspended, while Elias Jelert and Timothee Pembele are injured. Auxerre should therefore have opportunities to contribute rather than leaving the hosts to supply every goal. The restraint is Le Havre’s return of just one home league goal in three games, so a high-scoring rout is not the expectation. A predicted score of 2:1 fits the visitors’ away weakness without requiring a major attacking surge from the hosts.
The betting verdict
That protection matters given Le Havre’s limited home output, while Auxerre’s away record supports targeting a third goal.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Lille OSCaway0:1
- Boulognehome6:1
- Toulouseaway2:3
- Angers SCOhome0:0
- Stade Brestois 29home1:2
- Stade Rennaisaway1:4
- Clermont Foothome4:3
- Stade Brestois 29home2:1
- Nicehome1:0
- Lyonaway1:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Toulouse | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12:11 | 9 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 11:17 | 9 |
| 13 | Nice | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:9 | 8 |
| 14 | Strasbourg | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 12:15 | 7 |
| 15 | Angers SCO | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:15 | 7 |
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10:15 | 6 |
| 17 | Troyes AC | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:16 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5:11 | 2 |
Head-to-head
- 05.04.2026Le Havre1:1AuxerreFrance. Ligue 1
- 26.10.2025Auxerre0:1Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 04.05.2025Auxerre1:2Le HavreFrance. Ligue 1
- 01.09.2024Le Havre3:1AuxerreFrance. Ligue 1
- 07.05.2022Le Havre1:2AuxerreFrance. Ligue 2
About the match
- 18 October · 11:15 New York
- Venue: Oceane (Le Havre)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market balance and likely game script
The market makes Le Havre the narrow favourite at a 40.6% home-win probability, with the draw at 28% and an Auxerre win at 31.4%. The gap between the two win probabilities is modest, reflecting Le Havre’s poor home record and Auxerre’s extreme away defensive weakness. The line has shown no notable movement over the last day.
The goal markets are almost perfectly balanced, with a 50.5% probability for over the main total and 49.5% for under. Both teams to score is given a 56% probability, supported by both teams scoring in five of Auxerre’s six league fixtures. The unchanged lines indicate that the market has not materially revised its view after the latest team news.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (2)
- Odds
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.4
- Potential win
- 40 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.33
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +40 $