Ligue 1 Match Prediction: AS Monaco vs Lille OSC
AS Monaco
Lille OSCMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.36 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.34 pending
AS Monaco host Lille OSC at Stade Louis II in Ligue 1 round 8 on 25 October. Both have 14 points, level with leaders Lyon: Lille sit fourth and Monaco fifth, separated by one goal conceded. Victory would move either side ahead of a direct rival in the leading group.
Monaco: home scoring offsets a league setback
Recent results and venue split
Monaco’s last five matches, including a friendly, produced three wins, one draw and one defeat. They beat Freiburg 3:0 after a 1:0 league defeat at Lorient.
At home in Ligue 1, Monaco are unbeaten in three matches: two wins, one draw and a combined score of 6:3.
Strengths and pressure points
- Monaco have won four of seven league games.
- They have scored ten goals, averaging 1.43 per match.
- They have conceded six goals and kept two league clean sheets.
- BTTS occurred in four of seven league matches; Over 2.5 landed in three.
Availability and attacking options
Folarin Balogun and Ansu Fati are out, while Takumi Minamino is doubtful. Maghnes Akliouche is available; Matthis Abline, Edan Diop and Mamadou Coulibaly are in contention. Paris Brunner returned from suspension before the Freiburg fixture.
- Freiburghome3:0
- Lorientaway0:1
- CSKA Sofiaaway2:1
- Toulousehome2:2
- Pisahome2:0
Lille: league defence faces a different examination
Domestic control, European concessions
Lille have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches, including a friendly. They are winless in three across all competitions after losing 2:4 to Galatasaray.
Away in the league, they have won two of three matches, scoring four goals and conceding two.
Where the balance lies
- Lille have conceded five goals in seven league matches.
- They have kept four league clean sheets but conceded seven goals in two recent European games.
- Only two league fixtures exceeded 2.5 goals, while BTTS occurred in three.
- Lille have scored ten league goals, matching Monaco’s output.
Absences across several positions
Tiago Santos is out for the season with knee ligament and meniscus injuries. Ayase Ueda and Hamza Igamane are also injured; Ethan Mbappe is suspended. Osame Sahraoui is unavailable after the coach judged him unready to train or compete.
Goalkeeper Berke Ozer has resumed training and is ready.
- Galatasarayhome2:4
- Stade Brestois 29home1:1
- Arsenalaway0:3
- Le Havrehome1:0
- Zulte Waregemhome2:1
Previous meetings favour Lille, often narrowly
Lille have won five of the ten official meetings over five years, against Monaco’s two wins and three draws. Lille won the latest three encounters. Seven of the eight listed meetings finished Under 2.5, with BTTS in just two.
At Louis II, the four listed games produced only one goal altogether, including two goalless draws.
- 10.05.2026AS Monaco0:1Lille OSCFrance. Ligue 1
- 24.08.2025Lille OSC1:0AS MonacoFrance. Ligue 1
- 22.02.2025Lille OSC2:1AS MonacoFrance. Ligue 1
- 18.10.2024AS Monaco0:0Lille OSCFrance. Ligue 1
- 24.04.2024AS Monaco1:0Lille OSCFrance. Ligue 1
Filipe Luis highlights Lille’s intensity
Monaco coach Filipe Luis praised Lille’s defensive quality, midfield and intensity despite their summer departures. He described Davide Ancelotti as an excellent coach and said Monaco would need to be at their best to win.
Our Prediction
AS Monaco host Lille OSC at Louis II with both teams on 14 points after seven Ligue 1 rounds. Monaco have scored 6 and conceded 3 in three home league matches. Lille’s away record is 2 wins and 1 loss, with a 4:2 goal balance.
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) 1.43. A draw returns the stake; the market assigns the stalemate a 28.6% probability and Monaco a 45.8% win probability. Monaco have won three of their last five matches, scored in four, and beat Freiburg 3:0. Lille have gone three matches without a win and drawn 1:1 with Stade Brestois 29 and lost 2:4 to Galatasaray in their last two games. The visitors are without Tiago Santos, Ayase Ueda, Hamza Igamane, Ethan Mbappé and Osame Sahraoui, while Maghnes Akliouche, Paris Brunner, Matthijs Abline and Edan Diop are available again for Monaco. Lille have won the last three meetings, but Monaco’s home record is stronger than Lille’s current defensive form.
Expected score: 2:1 to AS Monaco, supporting the zero handicap on the hosts.
Conclusion
Handicap 1 (0) 1.43 is the selection. Monaco’s home record, Lille’s recent defensive form and the visitors’ absences make the hosts the stronger side, with a draw returning the stake.
FAQ
When does AS Monaco — Lille OSC kick off?
The match starts on 25.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), Louis II (Monaco).
What is the prediction for AS Monaco — Lille OSC?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.43.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: AS Monaco win — 48%, draw — 28%, Lille OSC win — 24%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Freiburghome3:0
- Lorientaway0:1
- CSKA Sofiaaway2:1
- Toulousehome2:2
- Pisahome2:0
- Galatasarayhome2:4
- Stade Brestois 29home1:1
- Arsenalaway0:3
- Le Havrehome1:0
- Zulte Waregemhome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Paris Saint-Germain | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14:9 | 14 |
| 3 | Lille OSC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 4 | Paris | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 5 | AS Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:6 | 14 |
| 6 | RC Lens | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16:12 | 13 |
Head-to-head
- 10.05.2026AS Monaco0:1Lille OSCFrance. Ligue 1
- 24.08.2025Lille OSC1:0AS MonacoFrance. Ligue 1
- 22.02.2025Lille OSC2:1AS MonacoFrance. Ligue 1
- 18.10.2024AS Monaco0:0Lille OSCFrance. Ligue 1
- 24.04.2024AS Monaco1:0Lille OSCFrance. Ligue 1
About the match
- 25 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Louis II (Monaco), Monako
- Weather: 17° · precip. 0% · wind 2.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 20:10
Home advantage leads a closely balanced market
Monaco are the 1X2 favourites at a margin-free probability of 45.8%, below an outright majority. The draw carries 28.6% and Lille 25.5%. There has been no notable movement over the last 24 hours.
Over 2.5 has a narrow market edge at 52.2%, while BTTS is assessed at 56.4%. Both lean towards more goals than the recent head-to-head results and Lille’s league record, rather than their recent European concessions.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.43
- Odds at prediction
- 1.56
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.48
- Potential win
- 48 $
- Status
- pending
