Villarreal vs Espanyol: La Liga Match Prediction
Villarreal
EspanyolMore picks
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.32 lost
Match result
Villarreal 0:1 Espanyol (0:0, 0:1)
In Spain. La Liga, the match between Villarreal and Espanyol ended with a final score of 0:1. The first half finished 0:0, followed by a 0:1 scoreline in the second half. Based on this result, the prediction for Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) lost.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.41 — the bet lost.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (5.5) at 1.32 — the bet lost.
Villarreal host Espanyol at Ceramica in La Liga’s eleventh round. Villarreal are tenth with 12 points, while Espanyol are eighteenth with 8. The hosts have won their last two matches; the visitors have lost their last three and changed head coach during the week.
Villarreal: improved results, unstable league base
Recent form and home profile
Villarreal have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last five matches. Their results were a 5:0 away win over CE Manacor, a 2:1 victory at Valencia, a 3:4 defeat at Liverpool, a goalless home draw with Elche and a 3:1 home win over Napoli. They scored in 4 of those 5 games and are on a two-match winning run. In La Liga, their record is 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats, with 15 goals for and 14 against. At home, they have recorded 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, scoring and conceding 6 goals.
Villarreal are tenth, level on points with Celta and one point above Deportivo de A Coruna. Their league position and recent results indicate a stronger record than Espanyol’s, but the home return of 4 points from 4 matches limits the hosts’ edge.
Structure, threats and absences
- Villarreal average 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per league match.
- Both teams scored in 7 of their 10 league fixtures, while Villarreal kept only 1 clean sheet.
- More than 2.5 goals occurred in 7 of 10 league matches, indicating an open game profile.
- Alex Freeman and Georges Mikautadze have each scored once in limited appearances; Alberto Moleiro has supplied 1 assist.
Pap Gueye is suspended after the Valencia match and will miss the fixture. Tajon Buchanan has returned from a hamstring injury and is available. Villarreal’s expected starting eleven and tactical formation are not specified.
- CE Manacoraway5:0
- Valenciaaway2:1
- Liverpoolaway3:4
- Elchehome0:0
- Napolihome3:1
Espanyol: poor sequence and a disrupted bench
Results, scoring and away performance
Espanyol have not won any of their last five matches: 1 draw and 4 defeats. They lost 3:1 to Elche, drew 1:1 at Malaga, lost 0:1 to Atletico Madrid, were beaten 2:1 at Racing de Santander and then lost 4:3 at Sestao River Club in the Copa del Rey. They scored in 4 of those 5 matches but conceded in all 5. The latest defeat extended their losing run to three games.
Across the league, Espanyol have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats, with 12 goals for and 14 against. Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats, with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded. They sit eighteenth, two points above Valencia and three behind Getafe. Both teams scored in 7 of their 10 league matches, while Espanyol recorded only 2 clean sheets.
Personnel changes and available options
Manolo Gonzalez was dismissed after the poor start and the cup defeat, while Eder Sarabia was appointed as the new head coach. Sarabia cannot make his debut in this match, so Sergio Garcia will lead the team on an interim basis. Jofre Carreras and Kike Garcia are injured and unavailable. Pere Milla, Unai Nunez and Andoni Gorosabel have returned and are ready to play. Espanyol’s probable formation and complete starting lineup are not specified.
Eduardo Exposito Jaen and Bryan Zaragoza have each scored once in the league, while Javier Hernandez has recorded 2 assists. Espanyol have conceded in each of their last five matches, including four goals against a fourth-tier opponent in the cup.
- Sestao River Clubaway3:4
- Racing de Santanderaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome0:1
- Malagaaway1:1
- Elchehome1:3
Head-to-head record strongly favors the hosts
Villarreal have won all 7 official meetings with Espanyol over the last five years, with no draws or defeats. They won each of the last three encounters. The most recent meeting ended 4:1 to Villarreal at Ceramica; previous home fixtures included wins by 1:0 and 4:2.
The series includes controlled Villarreal victories and high-scoring games. Espanyol have struggled to balance the matchup, while their current defensive record is weaker than in the earlier low-scoring wins.
- 09.02.2026Villarreal4:1EspanyolSpain. La Liga
- 08.11.2025Espanyol0:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 27.04.2025Villarreal1:0EspanyolSpain. La Liga
- 26.09.2024Espanyol1:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 27.04.2023Villarreal4:2EspanyolSpain. La Liga
Coaching change dominates the pre-match picture
Espanyol dismissed Manolo Gonzalez immediately after the cup setback and appointed Eder Sarabia, but the new coach will not be on the touchline. Sergio Garcia must prepare the team during a short transition period, while injured players Jofre Carreras and Kike Garcia are unavailable.
Espanyol can strengthen the squad with the returns of Pere Milla, Unai Nunez and Andoni Gorosabel. Villarreal have greater continuity, although Pap Gueye’s suspension removes one midfield option. Full starting elevens are not confirmed.
Line-ups
Villarreal
Starting XI: 6. Pau Navarro, 7. Gerard Moreno, 9. Georges Mikautadze, 10. Alberto Moleiro, 12. Renato Veiga, 14. Santi Comesana, 15. Santiago Mourino, 16. Carlos Macia Coves, 17. Tajon Buchanan, 23. Sergi Cardona Bermudez, 25. Peter Gulacsi
Substitutes: 1. Luiz Lucio Reis Junior, 2. Logan Costa, 3. Alex Freeman, 13. Ruben Gomez, 19. Nicolas Pepe, 20. Carlos Romero, 21. Tani Oluwaseyi, 22. Ayoze Perez, 27. Nizar El Jmili, 30. Cheikh Tidiane Thiam
Coach: Inigo Perez
Espanyol
Starting XI: 1. Angel Fortuno, 6. Leandro Cabrera, 8. Eduardo Exposito Jaen, 9. Roberto Fernandez Jaen, 15. Bryan Zaragoza, 16. Vanja Drkusic, 21. Roger Hinojo, 23. Omar El Hilali, 26. Rafel Bauza, 28. Javier Hernandez, 36. Santiago A.
Substitutes: 3. Quilindschy Hartman, 7. Javier Puado Diaz, 10. Pol Lozano, 11. Pere Milla Pena, 13. Marko Dmitrovic, 14. Unai Nunez, 18. Markos Fernandez Sanchez, 20. Gabriel Silva Moscardo de Salles, 24. Tyrhys Dolan, 27. Adama Timera, 32. Jose Angel Lopez, 33. Jan Peries
Coach: Sergio Garcia
Our prediction
Villarreal are the stronger side and have won their last two matches: 5:0 at CE Manacor and 2:1 away to Valencia. They found the net in four of their last five games. Espanyol have lost three consecutive matches.
Espanyol also have an unsettled coaching situation. Manolo González was dismissed after the Copa del Rey defeat by fourth-tier Sestao River Club. Newly appointed Eder Sarabia will not lead the team from the touchline, so Sergio García takes temporary charge. Injuries to Jofre Carreras and Kike García further reduce Espanyol’s options. Villarreal have won all seven official meetings over the past five years, while the market rates a home win at 67.2%, with that probability strengthening as the line shortens. Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.41. Expected score: Villarreal 2:0 Espanyol.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.41 is supported by Villarreal’s 13 goals in five matches and Espanyol’s 11 conceded in the same period. Villarreal should score at least twice.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- CE Manacoraway5:0
- Valenciaaway2:1
- Liverpoolaway3:4
- Elchehome0:0
- Napolihome3:1
- Sestao River Clubaway3:4
- Racing de Santanderaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome0:1
- Malagaaway1:1
- Elchehome1:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | 12 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Deportivo Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 12 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 09.02.2026Villarreal4:1EspanyolSpain. La Liga
- 08.11.2025Espanyol0:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 27.04.2025Villarreal1:0EspanyolSpain. La Liga
- 26.09.2024Espanyol1:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 27.04.2023Villarreal4:2EspanyolSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 30 October · 16:00 New York
- Venue: Ceramica (Villarreal), Vilʹyarrealʹ
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view: clear home favoritism
The market assigns Villarreal a 67.2% probability of a home win, with the line shortening during the last day. A draw is rated at 18.8% and the away win at 13.9%; both corresponding lines have moved against those outcomes. The home preference is supported by the table gap, recent form and Espanyol’s coaching disruption.
The totals market leans toward no more than 3.5 goals, at 57.9%, while the over is assessed at 42.1%. Both teams scoring is rated at 56.7%. These figures reflect Espanyol’s repeated defensive concessions and Villarreal’s tendency to allow goals: both teams scored in 7 of 10 league matches for each side.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Odds
- 1.37
- Odds at prediction
- 1.41
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 69%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.37
- Potential win
- 37 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.37
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $