Valencia — Villarreal match forecast in La Liga
Valencia
VillarrealValencia host Villarreal at Mestalla in the tenth round of La Liga. Valencia have 6 points from 9 matches and sit 19th; Villarreal are 12th with 9 points. Valencia have scored 6 goals, compared with 13 for Villarreal.
Valencia: defensive reset, limited attacking output
Recent form and home profile
Valencia’s last five matches produced 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats. They scored in 3 games. The current sequence is two consecutive draws, including a goalless home draw with Athletic Bilbao. Their league home record is 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats, with 2 goals scored and 9 conceded.
Strengths, weaknesses and squad situation
- 6 goals in 9 league games, averaging 0.67 per match.
- 9 goals conceded across five league fixtures at Mestalla.
- Daniel Raba and David Otorbi lead the league scoring list with one goal each.
Sergi Canos and Diego Lopez will miss the match with knee injuries. Guido Rodriguez is doubtful because of a muscular problem. Javier Aguirre took charge during the international break. Valencia recorded their highest shot count of the season against Athletic, but finishing remains weak.
- Athletic Bilbaohome0:0
- Racing de Santanderaway2:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:3
- Deportivo Alavesaway1:0
- Sevillaaway0:1
Villarreal: more goal threat, exposed defensive transitions
Recent form and away profile
Villarreal have taken 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last five matches. They found the net in 3 games and allowed goals in 4. Their most recent fixture ended in a 4:3 defeat at Liverpool, after a goalless draw with Elche and a 3:1 home win over Napoli. In the league, their away record is 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, with 7 goals for and 7 against.
Key advantages and risks
- 13 league goals, averaging 1.44 per match.
- BTTS occurred in 6 of 9 league games.
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of 9 league matches.
- Only one league clean sheet.
Villarreal are 12th in the table with a balanced goal record of 13:13. Tajon Buchanan is doubtful with a hamstring injury; Nathan Saliba and Carlos Romero are also listed as doubtful.
- Liverpoolaway3:4
- Elchehome0:0
- Napolihome3:1
- Real Madridaway0:1
- Levante UDhome3:1
Head-to-head record favours the visitors
Across 10 official meetings in the last five years, Valencia have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5.
Valencia scored in 6 of those games, while Villarreal scored in 7. At Mestalla, the recent sequence includes a 3:1 Valencia win, two draws and a 0:2 defeat.
- 22.02.2026Villarreal2:1ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 25.10.2025Valencia0:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 15.02.2025Villarreal1:1ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 31.08.2024Valencia1:1VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 17.03.2024Villarreal1:0ValenciaSpain. La Liga
Team news and the coaching change
Valencia appointed Aguirre before this fixture. His team used a more compact defensive structure against Athletic and kept a clean sheet, but finishing remained weak. The increase in shots did not produce goals.
Valencia’s absences affect the attacking and wide options through Canos and Diego Lopez, while Rodriguez remains uncertain. Villarreal have three players listed as doubtful, including Buchanan and two defensive options.
Our Forecast
Valencia welcome Villarreal to Mestalla in the tenth La Liga round, with the hosts sitting 19th on 6 points and the visitors 12th on 9. The recommended bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.29. Villarreal have scored 13 goals in 9 league matches and 7 in 5 away games, while Valencia have conceded 15 overall and 9 at home. That defensive gap is central to the selection.
Villarreal’s attacking level has also held up against stronger opposition: they scored three at Liverpool and three against Napoli in their last five matches. Valencia kept a clean sheet against Athletic Bilbao, but scored only twice across five home league fixtures. Their attack remains limited, while Sergi Canós and Diego López are ruled out and Guido Rodríguez is doubtful because of a muscle injury, according to media reports. Villarreal have three players listed as doubtful, but their recent output still supports at least one away goal. Expected score: Valencia 0–1 Villarreal.
Conclusion
Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.29 is the selection. Villarreal’s 13 league goals, 7 away goals and Valencia’s 9 home concessions point to a strong chance of the visitors scoring at least once.
FAQ
When does Valencia — Villarreal kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 12:30 (New York), Mestalla (Valencia).
What is the prediction for Valencia — Villarreal?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1) at 1.29.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Valencia win — 28%, draw — 26%, Villarreal win — 45%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Athletic Bilbaohome0:0
- Racing de Santanderaway2:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:3
- Deportivo Alavesaway1:0
- Sevillaaway0:1
- Liverpoolaway3:4
- Elchehome0:0
- Napolihome3:1
- Real Madridaway0:1
- Levante UDhome3:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Levante UD | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15:17 | 10 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13:13 | 9 |
| 13 | Athletic Bilbao | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8:9 | 9 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:17 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6:15 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 22.02.2026Villarreal2:1ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 25.10.2025Valencia0:2VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 15.02.2025Villarreal1:1ValenciaSpain. La Liga
- 31.08.2024Valencia1:1VillarrealSpain. La Liga
- 17.03.2024Villarreal1:0ValenciaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 24 October · 12:30 New York
- Venue: Mestalla (Valencia)
- Weather: 21° · precip. 0% · wind 3.3 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 24.10 04:10
Market view and goal expectations
The market makes Villarreal the favourite at 43.8% for an away win, ahead of Valencia at 29.6%, with the draw at 26.6%. The 1X2 line has shown no notable movement during the last 24 hours.
The goals market leans towards Over 2.5 at 55%, while Under 2.5 stands at 45.1%. BTTS Yes is favoured at 58.9%, with BTTS No at 41.1%. This matches Villarreal’s BTTS record but conflicts with Valencia’s low scoring rate and three clean sheets. The lines remain unchanged after the Liverpool result, Aguirre’s appointment and the listed injuries.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.29
- Odds at prediction
- 1.32
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 72%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.32
- Potential win
- 32 $
- Status
- pending
