Sevilla vs Osasuna: La Liga Match Prediction
Sevilla
OsasunaSevilla host Osasuna at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan on 26 October in La Liga’s tenth round. Sevilla are sixth with 14 points. Eleventh-placed Osasuna have 11 points.
Sevilla: scoring has not protected the defence
Recent results and home balance
Sevilla’s last five matches brought one win, one draw and three defeats. The sequence includes a friendly against Aston Villa. They scored in every game but followed the draw at Levante with a 4:1 defeat at Real Madrid.
At home in the league, Sevilla have two wins and two losses, with five goals scored and seven conceded.
Attacking output versus defensive exposure
Across nine league fixtures, Sevilla average 1.56 goals scored and 1.78 conceded. BTTS has occurred seven times and Over 2.5 goals six times, while they have kept two clean sheets.
Romero returns; Marcao remains out
Isaac Romero is available after suspension. Jon Guridi and Lucas Stassin are returning to group training, with limited minutes expected. Miguel Sierra is out with an acromioclavicular joint injury, while Marcao has a torn thigh muscle. Robbie Ure has contributed a goal and an assist in two league appearances.
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Levante UDaway3:3
- Aston Villahome1:3
- Barcelonahome1:3
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:0
Osasuna: the away defence needs a different response
A home recovery after heavy away defeats
Osasuna’s last five league matches produced one win, one draw and three defeats. Their latest result, a 2:0 victory over Racing Santander, ended a five-match winless run. Their two most recent away games ended in defeats at Atletico Madrid and Real Betis.
The split behind their league position
Osasuna have one win and three losses from four away fixtures, scoring six goals and conceding 15. Overall, they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded.
Their nine league games include three clean sheets, with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurring four times. Their away defence has been weaker than those overall totals suggest.
Boyomo available amid four absences
Enzo Boyomo has returned to the starting side and regained fitness. Centre-back Jorge Herrando remains out with a muscle injury. Aimar Oroz and Raul Moro have torn thigh muscles, while Romain Del Castillo has a hamstring injury, reducing options centrally and on both attacking flanks.
Ante Budimir has one goal in two listed league appearances.
- Racing de Santanderhome2:0
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Rayo Vallecanohome1:1
- Atletico Madridaway0:4
- Espanyolhome0:2
Recent meetings favour Osasuna
Across 11 official meetings over five years, Osasuna have five wins to Sevilla’s two, with four draws. Sevilla’s most recent home meeting ended in a 1:0 win, but Osasuna won the latest encounter 2:1 in April.
- 26.04.2026Osasuna2:1SevillaSpain. La Liga
- 08.11.2025Sevilla1:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 24.04.2025Osasuna1:0SevillaSpain. La Liga
- 02.12.2024Sevilla1:1OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 28.01.2024Sevilla1:1OsasunaSpain. La Liga
Coaches focus on defence and away performance
Luis Garcia Plaza has called for defensive improvement after Sevilla conceded at least three goals in each of their last three matches. The club also lodged a complaint about the organisation of the Real Madrid broadcast, while the coach criticised the refereeing.
Jagoba Arrasate wants to assess Osasuna away against a strong opponent.
Our pick: Sevilla’s scoring threshold
For Sevilla against Osasuna at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.43. Sevilla have scored in all five of their latest matches across competitions, while Osasuna have conceded 15 goals in four away league fixtures. That contrast favours backing the hosts’ attack rather than relying on their defence to secure a win.
Isaac Romero returns from suspension, restoring a forward option for Sevilla, while Osasuna are without injured centre-back Jorge Herrando. The main restraint is Sevilla’s home output: five goals in four league games is not a strong two-goal trend. Still, the visitors conceded four at Atletico Madrid and five at Real Betis, making their away defending the clearest weakness to target. A projected score is 2:1 to Sevilla.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.43 is our pick for Sevilla against Osasuna. That protection suits a side whose recent scoring record is more dependable than its results, without making this a risk-free selection.
FAQ
When does Sevilla — Osasuna kick off?
The match starts on 26.10.2026 at 16:00 (New York), Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (Seville).
What is the prediction for Sevilla — Osasuna?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.43.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Sevilla win — 50%, draw — 28%, Osasuna win — 22%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Levante UDaway3:3
- Aston Villahome1:3
- Barcelonahome1:3
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:0
- Racing de Santanderhome2:0
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Rayo Vallecanohome1:1
- Atletico Madridaway0:4
- Espanyolhome0:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:16 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:18 | 11 |
| 13 | Racing de Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 26.04.2026Osasuna2:1SevillaSpain. La Liga
- 08.11.2025Sevilla1:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 24.04.2025Osasuna1:0SevillaSpain. La Liga
- 02.12.2024Sevilla1:1OsasunaSpain. La Liga
- 28.01.2024Sevilla1:1OsasunaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 26 October · 16:00 New York
- Venue: Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (Seville)
- Weather: 21° · precip. 0% · wind 0.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 26.10 04:10
Market leans towards Sevilla, without a majority
Sevilla are the 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free win probability of 48.7%. The draw accounts for 27.4% and an Osasuna win for 23.9%. There has been no notable movement over the past 24 hours.
Under 2.5 goals carries a 55% assessment, contrasting with Sevilla’s scoring trends. BTTS is almost evenly balanced: 49.7% for both teams to score against 50.3% for at least one side failing to score. Neither goals market has shifted notably.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.43
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.43
- Potential win
- 43 $
- Status
- pending