Osasuna — Racing de Santander Prediction: Spain La Liga
Osasuna
Racing de SantanderOsasuna host Racing de Santander at El Sadar in Pamplona in La Liga’s ninth round on 18 October. Both have eight points: Racing sit 15th and Osasuna 16th. The immediate stakes are separation from the lower end of the table, rather than closing the gap to the leaders.
Osasuna: home defence offers some protection
Recent results and contrasting venues
Osasuna’s last five matches brought one draw and four defeats. Their latest result, a 5:2 defeat at Betis, followed a home draw with Rayo Vallecano. The home-away contrast is substantial: at El Sadar they have one win, two draws and one defeat, with just two goals scored and three conceded.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Two clean sheets in eight league matches show some capacity to shut opponents out.
- Only two goals in four home matches limits the margin their defence can afford.
- They have conceded in each of their last five fixtures.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in four of eight league games, a less open profile than Racing’s.
Available options and absentees
Raul Moro and Kike Barja return to the squad after injury and muscular problems respectively. Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz, Romain Del Castillo and Asier Bonel remain unavailable. Budimir A. and Garsiya de Kharo R. each have one recorded league goal, while Garsiya Rub. has an assist; the individual records cover one appearance apiece.
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Rayo Vallecanohome1:1
- Atletico Madridaway0:4
- Espanyolhome0:2
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:5
Racing: scoring threat, costly away defending
Recent form and the travel problem
Racing’s last five matches brought one win, one draw and three defeats. They most recently drew 2:2 with Valencia. Away from home, all four league fixtures have ended in defeat, with four goals scored and 16 conceded: their attacking output has not compensated for repeated defensive losses.
Attacking frequency against defensive exposure
- Racing have scored in four of their last five matches.
- They have no clean sheets in eight league appearances.
- Seven of those eight games finished Over 2.5 goals.
- BTTS has occurred six times, alongside season averages of 1.63 scored and 2.88 conceded.
Personnel before the trip
Simon Eriksson remains absent while recovering from shoulder tendinopathy. Zabiri and Martin each have one recorded league goal, and Vicente has one assist, again across individual records of one appearance.
- Valenciahome2:2
- Celtaaway0:5
- Barcelonaaway2:7
- Deportivo Alaveshome2:1
- Rayo Vallecanoaway2:3
Recent meetings offer limited guidance
The two listed encounters were friendlies at Osasuna: Racing won 1:0 in August 2025, then lost 2:0 in July 2026. These preparation games carry less weight than the current league records.
- 24.07.2026Osasuna2:0Racing de SantanderClub Friendlies
- 02.08.2025Osasuna0:1Racing de SantanderClub Friendlies
- 07.03.2015Racing de Santander2:0OsasunaDivision 2
- 04.10.2014Osasuna0:2Racing de SantanderDivision 2
- 13.05.2012Racing de Santander2:4OsasunaSpain. La Liga
Coaches focus on pressure and away identity
Jagoba Arrasate has called for reliability and effective pressure, while describing Racing as brave in possession and strong in attack. Jose Alberto wants a step forward away from home without abandoning Racing’s identity. He also identified Arrasate’s return as a possible emotional lift for Osasuna, urging his own players to concentrate on their performance.
Our goals selection
Our bet is Total Over (2) 1.26. Racing have conceded 23 goals in eight league games and Osasuna 18 over the same span. The visitors have also scored 13, so the case rests on defensive vulnerability and Racing’s ability to contribute, rather than on treating Osasuna as a prolific attacking side.
Racing’s matches have produced at least three goals in seven of eight rounds, with no clean sheets. The main counterweight is Osasuna’s home record: just two goals scored and three conceded across four games. That makes the two-goal threshold preferable to a higher line: exactly two goals would return the stake. Raul Moro and Kike Barja are available again, adding attacking options, although Aimar Oroz remains absent. Confirmed starting line-ups are not available. A plausible score is 2:1 to Osasuna.
Final betting view
Total Over (2) 1.26 balances Racing’s high-scoring pattern against the hosts’ quieter home games. Three goals are needed for a winning bet; the refund at two protects against a more restrained match.
FAQ
When does Osasuna — Racing de Santander kick off?
The match starts on 18.10.2026 at 08:00 (New York), El Sadar (Pamplona).
What is the prediction for Osasuna — Racing de Santander?
Our pick is Total Over (2) at 1.26.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Osasuna win — 48%, draw — 26%, Racing de Santander win — 26%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Rayo Vallecanohome1:1
- Atletico Madridaway0:4
- Espanyolhome0:2
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:5
- Valenciahome2:2
- Celtaaway0:5
- Barcelonaaway2:7
- Deportivo Alaveshome2:1
- Rayo Vallecanoaway2:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4:10 | 8 |
| 15 | Racing de Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13:23 | 8 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:18 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante UD | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12:16 | 7 |
Head-to-head
- 24.07.2026Osasuna2:0Racing de SantanderClub Friendlies
- 02.08.2025Osasuna0:1Racing de SantanderClub Friendlies
- 07.03.2015Racing de Santander2:0OsasunaDivision 2
- 04.10.2014Osasuna0:2Racing de SantanderDivision 2
- 13.05.2012Racing de Santander2:4OsasunaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 18 October · 08:00 New York
- Venue: El Sadar (Pamplona)
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 4.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 16.10 17:10
Home advantage leads a cautious market
Osasuna are favourites at a margin-adjusted 48.2%, short of an outright majority. The draw is assessed at 26.1% and an away win at 25.8%. The home-away defensive contrast helps explain that preference despite equal points totals. No notable movement has occurred over the last 24 hours.
BTTS is assessed at 60.8%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 58.6%. Both markets lean towards scoring, but Osasuna’s low-scoring home record is a counterweight to Racing’s open matches. With only eight league games per team, those season frequencies remain a small sample rather than a settled pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (2)
- Current odds
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.26
- Potential win
- 26 $
- Status
- pending
