Levante UD vs Atletico Madrid: La Liga Match Prediction
Levante UD
Atletico MadridMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.26 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.44 pending
Levante host Atletico Madrid at Ciudad de Valencia on 31 October in La Liga’s 11th round. The hosts are 14th with 10 points; Atletico are second on 25, two behind Barcelona.
Levante: home scoring offsets defensive leaks
Recent form and venue split
Levante’s last five matches brought one win, two draws and two defeats. They scored and conceded in every game. Their latest home results were a 3-3 draw with Sevilla and a 3-1 win over Athletic Bilbao; their latest away trip ended in a 2-1 defeat at Real Sociedad.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Two wins and a draw from four home league matches.
- They have scored 13 goals at home.
- They have conceded 10 goals at home.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have each occurred in seven of 10 league games; Levante kept two clean sheets.
Availability and attacking options
Enzo Bardeli is out with a hamstring injury, Dela is unavailable, and centre-back Adrian de la Fuente is doubtful after missing two games with a muscle problem. Roger Brugue is ready to start: Luis Castro says he can play normally after minor discomfort. Brugue has two goals and one assist in four league appearances.
- Real Sociedadaway1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome3:1
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:1
- Sevillahome3:3
- Villarrealaway1:3
Atletico: narrow wins built on defensive control
Recent results and away record
Atletico are unbeaten in five matches across all competitions, with four wins, one draw. Their last two league wins were 1-0 against Espanyol and Deportivo de A Coruna. Away in La Liga, they have four wins from five games, scoring nine and conceding five.
Where the advantage lies
- Atletico have won eight of 10 league matches.
- They have conceded eight goals and kept five clean sheets.
- They average two league goals per game.
- Four of their 10 league matches featured BTTS, while seven finished Over 2.5 goals.
Fitness decisions and key contributors
Koke is doubtful after missing Wednesday’s training with a left-thigh muscle injury. Cristian Romero has returned to training but is not confirmed to start. Julian Alvarez, Alex Grimaldo and Alejandro Baena each have a goal and an assist in three league appearances.
- Deportivo de A Corunahome1:0
- VfB Stuttgartaway1:1
- Espanyolaway1:0
- Manchester Unitedhome2:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:1
Recent meetings have usually stayed low-scoring
Atletico won two of the four official meetings over the past five years, with one draw and one Levante victory. Levante failed to score in both home meetings: a 2-0 cup defeat in 2023 and a goalless league draw in January 2026.
- 31.01.2026Levante UD0:0Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
- 08.11.2025Atletico Madrid3:1Levante UDSpain. La Liga
- 18.01.2023Levante UD0:2Atletico MadridSpain Copa del Rey
- 16.02.2022Atletico Madrid0:1Levante UDSpain. La Liga
- 28.10.2021Levante UD2:2Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
Preparation and the wider context
Levante’s Copa del Rey fixture was postponed following a fatal railway disaster. Atletico have equalled their best league start in 13 seasons. Diego Simeone’s record against Levante is 11 wins, six draws and five defeats in 22 meetings.
Our pick: Atletico to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.48. Atletico Madrid average exactly 2 goals per league match, while Levante concede 1.9. The venue strengthens the case: the hosts have allowed 10 goals in four home fixtures, so the visitors do not need to exceed their season scoring average to land this selection.
Levante will be without injured defender Dela, while centre-back Adrian de la Fuente is doubtful after missing two matches with a muscle problem. Dela’s absence reduces defensive options against the second-placed side. The main caution is Atletico’s recent output. Their nine goals in five league away games also suggest that two goals here is a measured expectation, not a certainty. Predicted score: 1-2.
Final verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.48 targets Levante’s defensive weakness without requiring an Atletico win or a goal from the hosts. The home concession rate is the strongest reason to back two visiting goals despite Atletico’s recent narrow scorelines.
FAQ
When does Levante UD — Atletico Madrid kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 09:00 (New York), Ciudad de Valencia (Valencia).
What is the prediction for Levante UD — Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.48.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Levante UD win — 17%, draw — 21%, Atletico Madrid win — 62%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Sociedadaway1:2
- Athletic Bilbaohome3:1
- Deportivo de A Corunaaway1:1
- Sevillahome3:3
- Villarrealaway1:3
- Deportivo de A Corunahome1:0
- VfB Stuttgartaway1:1
- Espanyolaway1:0
- Manchester Unitedhome2:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | 24 |
| 14 | Racing de Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | 11 |
| 15 | Levante UD | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | 10 |
| 16 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | 10 |
Head-to-head
- 31.01.2026Levante UD0:0Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
- 08.11.2025Atletico Madrid3:1Levante UDSpain. La Liga
- 18.01.2023Levante UD0:2Atletico MadridSpain Copa del Rey
- 16.02.2022Atletico Madrid0:1Levante UDSpain. La Liga
- 28.10.2021Levante UD2:2Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 31 October · 09:00 New York
- Venue: Ciudad de Valencia (Valencia), Valensiya
- Weather: 27° · precip. 11% · wind 0.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 30.10 09:20
Market favours Atletico, with a lower total gaining support
Atletico’s margin-free 1X2 probability is 61.7%, compared with 20.8% for the draw and 17.5% for Levante. Over the past 24 hours, the line has moved towards the visitors and away from the other two outcomes.
Under 3.5 goals has strengthened to 59.4%, while Over has weakened; BTTS Yes remains broadly unchanged at 58.5%. Under 3.5 does not require either side to keep a clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.48
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.48
- Potential win
- 48 $
- Status
- pending
