Deportivo de A Coruna — Osasuna Prediction: La Liga Analysis
Deportivo de A Coruna
OsasunaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.31 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5.5) 1.29 pending
Deportivo host Osasuna at Riazor on 2 November in La Liga’s 11th round. Both have 11 points from 10 matches: the hosts sit 12th and the visitors 14th. A win would separate two sides currently level with Espanyol and Racing de Santander in a tightly packed lower-middle group.
Deportivo: draws limit the home return
Recent results and league form
Deportivo’s last five fixtures brought one win, one draw and three defeats, with seven goals scored and eight conceded. The latest result was a 3:0 cup victory at Auriense Cented, but their league winless run stands at six matches: three draws and three losses. Their last three La Liga outings produced just one point, against Levante between defeats at Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid.
Scoring consistency, defensive exposure
At home, Deportivo have one win, three draws and one defeat, scoring six and conceding five. Their season-wide balance of 13 goals for and 13 against is stronger than Osasuna’s, yet they have no league clean sheets. BTTS has landed in eight of their 10 games, while only three exceeded the 2.5-goal threshold: conceding regularly has not usually turned their matches into high-scoring contests.
Absences across three positions
Marc Casado is out with a fractured shoulder until January, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang with a meniscus injury until December, and Bright Ede with a hamstring injury until 9 November. Mario Soriano and Bil Nsongo each have one listed league goal; Riki Rodriguez has one assist. A probable starting XI, formation and suspension information are not supplied.
- Auriense Centedaway3:0
- Atletico Madridaway0:1
- Levante UDhome1:1
- Real Sociedadaway2:3
- Portohome1:3
Osasuna: away defending is the main weakness
A cup response after another away loss
Osasuna have two wins, one draw and two defeats across their latest five matches, scoring 11 and conceding eight. Six of those goals came in the latest cup victory at Atletico Calatayud. In the league, a 2:0 home win over Racing de Santander was bracketed by away defeats at Real Betis and Sevilla, with seven goals conceded across those two trips.
A sharp home-away contrast
The visitors have lost four consecutive away league matches. Their overall travelling record is one win and four defeats, with six goals scored and 17 conceded. Across the full league campaign they have scored 10 and conceded 20, although three clean sheets show their defence has occasionally held firm. Four of their 10 games featured BTTS and four went over the 2.5-goal threshold.
Oros absent, two players available again
Aimar Oros is unavailable until 16 November with a torn thigh muscle. Jorge Herrando and Romain Del Castillo are available after muscle and hamstring injuries respectively. Ante Budimir, Raul Garcia de Haro and Asier Osambela each have one listed league goal. No probable lineup, formation or suspension details are supplied.
- Atletico Calatayudaway6:0
- Sevillaaway0:2
- Racing de Santanderhome2:0
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Rayo Vallecanohome1:1
One recent meeting, limited historical weight
The only official meeting in the past five years ended in a 2:1 Osasuna victory at Deportivo in the Copa del Rey on 16 December 2021. Both teams scored and the match produced three goals, but a single fixture almost five years earlier offers little basis for judging the current balance.
- 16.12.2021Deportivo de A Coruna1:2OsasunaSpain Copa del Rey
- 13.04.2019Osasuna2:1Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. Segunda Division
- 24.11.2018Deportivo de A Coruna2:0OsasunaSpain. Segunda Division
- 30.04.2017Osasuna2:2Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. La Liga
- 18.12.2016Deportivo de A Coruna2:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
Match conditions and outside assessment
Kickoff conditions are forecast at 12°C, with no rain and wind of 1.2 m/s, gusting to 2 m/s. Neither rain nor strong wind is therefore forecast to affect play. No expert opinions specific to this fixture are supplied.
Line-ups
Deportivo de A Coruna
Starting XI: 2. Adria Altimira, 10. Yeremay Hernandez, 11. David Mella, 12. Giacomo Quagliata, 13. Leonardo Roman Riquelme, 15. Miguel Loureiro Ameijenda, 16. Lorenzo Amatucci, 19. Luismi Cruz, 20. Jose Gimenez, 21. Mario Soriano, 32. Bil Nsongo
Substitutes: 3. Arnau Comas Feixas, 4. Lucas Noubi Ngnokam, 7. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, 8. Diego Villares, 14. Riki Rodriguez, 17. Jose Angel Tasende, 18. Jonathan Asp-Jensen, 23. Ximo Navarro, 24. Adama Traore, 25. Alvaro Fernandez, 33. Kevin Sanchez, 37. Noe Carrillo
Coach: Antonio Hidalgo
Osasuna
Starting XI: 1. Sergio Herrera, 7. Jon Moncayola, 8. Iker Munoz, 16. Moises Gomez Bordonado, 17. Ante Budimir, 18. Raul Moro, 19. Valentin Rosier, 21. Jonathan Dubasin, 22. Flavien-Enzo Boyomos, 23. Abel Bretones, 24. Alejandro Catena
Substitutes: 6. Lucas Torro, 9. Raul Garcia De Haro, 11. Enrique Barja, 13. Aitor Fernandez, 14. Ruben Garcia, 15. Diego Rico, 26. Mauro Echegoyen, 27. Inigo Arguibide, 29. Asier Osambela, 31. Rafael Fernandez Rodriguez, 35. Unai Santos, 48. Rockson Yeboah
Coach: Jagoba Arrasate Elustondo
Our pick at Riazor
Deportivo need a goal rather than a win for our selection: Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) 1.27. Their 13 goals in 10 league matches represent 1.3 per game, while Osasuna have conceded 17 across five away league fixtures. That contrast makes the hosts’ scoring threshold more attractive than backing them to take all three points.
Deportivo have scored in four of their last five matches across all competitions, and their six goals in five home league games support a modest target here. According to media reports, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is unavailable with a meniscus injury, reducing their attacking options. The selection does not require a high-scoring performance or a clean sheet from the hosts. A possible score is 1:1.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) 1.27 is our choice because one home goal is enough to exploit Osasuna’s away defensive weakness. Deportivo’s finishing remains the risk, so the case is for clearing that single-goal threshold, not for a comfortable victory.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Auriense Centedaway3:0
- Atletico Madridaway0:1
- Levante UDhome1:1
- Real Sociedadaway2:3
- Portohome1:3
- Atletico Calatayudaway6:0
- Sevillaaway0:2
- Racing de Santanderhome2:0
- Real Betisaway2:5
- Rayo Vallecanohome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 13 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing de Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15:29 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 16.12.2021Deportivo de A Coruna1:2OsasunaSpain Copa del Rey
- 13.04.2019Osasuna2:1Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. Segunda Division
- 24.11.2018Deportivo de A Coruna2:0OsasunaSpain. Segunda Division
- 30.04.2017Osasuna2:2Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. La Liga
- 18.12.2016Deportivo de A Coruna2:0OsasunaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 2 November · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Riazor (La Coruna)
Odds
odds before kick-off
A modest home lean rather than strong confidence
Deportivo are the 1X2 favourites, but the market assigns the home win a 43.3% probability. The draw and away win are assessed almost equally. Under is preferred on the 2.5-goal line, while BTTS is close to evenly balanced. No listed market has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours: the pricing separates Deportivo’s steadier home record from Osasuna’s away weakness without treating the hosts as clear-cut favourites.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (0.5)
- Odds
- 1.28
- Odds at prediction
- 1.27
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.28
- Potential win
- 28 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.28
- Status
- pending