Deportivo Alaves vs Malaga Forecast: La Liga Match Analysis
Deportivo Alaves
MalagaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.26 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.3 won
Match result
Deportivo Alaves 1:1 Malaga (0:1, 1:0)
The Spain La Liga match between Deportivo Alaves and Malaga ended in a 1:1 draw, with period scores of 0:1 and 1:0. Our prediction for this game was Individual Total 1 Over (1). Since Deportivo Alaves scored exactly one goal, the bet was void.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.33 — the bet was void.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (0.5) at 1.26 — the bet won.
Deportivo Alaves host Malaga at Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz on 23 October, with seventh place facing bottom place in La Liga's tenth round. Alaves have 11 points and sit three behind sixth-placed Sevilla; Malaga have four and remain below Valencia. The hosts need to arrest their recent slide, while the visitors are still seeking their first league win.
Alaves: home strength meets a losing run
Recent results and venue split
Alaves have taken one point from five matches, scoring three goals and conceding seven. Defeats against Racing Santander and Valencia preceded a goalless draw at Athletic Bilbao, then losses to Atletico Madrid and Celta. Their season-long home record is stronger: three wins and two defeats, with 10 goals scored and five conceded. Yet their two latest home appearances both ended in defeat.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- A league scoring average of 1.44 goals rises to 2.00 at home.
- Three clean sheets in nine games show some defensive resistance.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in five of nine league fixtures.
- No more than one goal scored in any of the last five matches highlights the current attacking slowdown.
Availability and selection
Mikel Rodriguez is out with a cruciate ligament injury; Facundo Garces is unavailable through injury and suspension. Ville Koski could return after a muscular problem, and Angel Perez is back from suspension. Quique Sanchez Flores intends to avoid unnecessary selection risks.
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
- Racing de Santanderaway1:2
Malaga: away attack offers little protection
Form and travelling record
Malaga's last five games brought two draws and three defeats, with five goals scored and 11 conceded. Their latest outing was a 5–2 home loss to Real Sociedad. Away from home, they have one draw and three defeats in four league matches, scoring once and conceding eight. That lack of an attacking outlet makes recovering from a deficit particularly difficult.
Scoring options and defensive weaknesses
- Six league goals in nine matches leave their scoring average at 0.67.
- They concede 2.00 goals per game and have kept one clean sheet.
- BTTS occurred in five league games, but only three cleared Over 2.5 goals.
- Adrian Nino has two goals; Pablo Martinez Andres has one goal and one assist.
Absences across the squad
Julen Lobete and Diego Murillo are out with cruciate ligament injuries, Aaron Ochoa with a meniscus injury, and Joaquin Munoz and Moussa Diarra with calf problems. Luismi Sanchez is also injured; Jose Salinas is unavailable by club decision.
- Real Sociedadhome2:5
- Espanyolhome1:1
- Getafeaway0:1
- Villarrealhome1:3
- Celtaaway1:1
Previous meetings split by home advantage
The two official meetings in the last five years produced one win apiece, both for the home side. Malaga won 1–0 in December 2022, before Alaves won 2–1 in May 2023. Those Segunda Division fixtures contained four goals in total, with BTTS in the latter only. Neither result establishes a recent top-flight pattern.
- 20.05.2023Deportivo Alaves2:1MalagaSpain. Segunda Division
- 18.12.2022Malaga1:0Deportivo AlavesSpain. Segunda Division
- 06.05.2018Malaga0:3Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 21.12.2017Deportivo Alaves1:0MalagaSpain. La Liga
- 11.03.2017Malaga1:2Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
Pressure on the benches
Juan Funes is under pressure following Malaga's poor results. For Alaves, the stated motivation is to respond to their latest defeat.
Line-ups
Deportivo Alaves
Starting XI: 1. Antonio Sivera Salva, 2. Nicolas Valentini, 7. Angel Perez, 8. Antonio Blanco, 9. Mariano Diaz, 10. Carles Alena, 14. Tenaglia Nahuel, 15. Lucas Boye, 16. Ville Koski, 19. Pablo Ibanez Lumbreras, 21. Abde Rebbach
Substitutes: 3. Youssef Enriquez, 4. Denis Suarez, 11. Antonio Martinez Lopez, 12. Hugo Novoa Ramos, 13. Adrian Rodriguez Gimenez, 17. Jonny Castro, 20. Aitor Manas, 22. Miguel Rodriguez, 23. Carlos Nahuel Benavidez Protesoni, 24. Mamadou Selu Diallo, 27. Xanet Olaiz, 33. Ruben Montero
Coach: Quique Flores
Malaga
Starting XI: 1. Alfonso Herrero Peinador, 3. Carlos Puga, 4. Einar Galilea, 6. Ramon Enriquez, 8. Carlos Dotor, 10. David Larrubia, 15. Angel Recio Gutierrez, 21. Adrian Nino, 22. Daniel Lorenzo, 31. Rafita Garrido, 39. Adam Aznou
Substitutes: 2. Jens Cajuste, 5. Alex Pastoor, 7. Haitam Abaida, 9. Carlos Ruiz Rubio, 12. Jose Salinas, 13. Carlos Lopez Nogueras, 14. Raphael Vela Rodrigues, 17. Eneko Jauregi Escobar, 20. Fernando Calero, 23. Izan Merino, 25. Juan Berrocal Gonzalez, 32. Juan Fernandez
Coach: Juan Francisco Funes
Our pick: focus on Alaves goals
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.33. Alaves have scored 10 goals in five home league matches, while Malaga have conceded eight in four away fixtures. Those venue averages both reach two goals per match, making the hosts' scoring return a clearer target than the match result. Malaga remain winless after nine rounds and have kept just one clean sheet.
According to media reports, Diego Murillo, Aaron Ochoa and Joaquin Munoz are unavailable through injury, weakening the visitors in defence and midfield. That reduces their options for protecting the back line. Alaves' recent attacking output is the main caution: three goals across their last five games means the home average should not be treated as a guarantee. Predicted score: 2–0.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.33 needs at least two Alaves goals to win, with exactly one returning the stake. That protection suits a home attack facing a depleted opponent but still working to recover its scoring rhythm.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
- Racing de Santanderaway1:2
- Real Sociedadhome2:5
- Espanyolhome1:1
- Getafeaway0:1
- Villarrealhome1:3
- Celtaaway1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14:16 | 14 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | 12 |
| 8 | Celta | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6:15 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | 5 |
Head-to-head
- 20.05.2023Deportivo Alaves2:1MalagaSpain. Segunda Division
- 18.12.2022Malaga1:0Deportivo AlavesSpain. Segunda Division
- 06.05.2018Malaga0:3Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 21.12.2017Deportivo Alaves1:0MalagaSpain. La Liga
- 11.03.2017Malaga1:2Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 23 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Mendizorrotza (Vitoria-Gasteiz), Vitoriya-Gasteys
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market favours the hosts, with a modest goals lean
Alaves are favourites, with a margin-free home-win probability of 55.4%. Their price has shortened over the last 24 hours, while the draw and away-win lines have remained broadly unchanged. The home record and Malaga's limited away scoring help explain that preference, although Alaves' recent winless run limits confidence.
Under 2.5 goals carries a 53.9% market probability, while BTTS No is assessed at 52.1%. Both markets are stable: these are narrow preferences rather than strong expectations of a low-scoring game or a clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Odds
- 1.33
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 74%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.33
- Potential win
- 33 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.29
- Status
- void
- Profit
- +0 $