Celta vs Deportivo Alaves: La Liga Match Prediction
Celta
Deportivo AlavesCelta host Deportivo Alaves at Balaidos in Vigo on 18 October in La Liga’s ninth round. The hosts sit ninth with 8 points. Kick-off is at 10:15 America/New_York, with dry conditions and a temperature of 22°C expected.
Celta: defensive returns, uneven scoring
Recent results and home balance
Celta’s last five games brought one win, two draws and two defeats. The sequence runs from a draw with Malaga through defeat at Omonia, victory over Racing de Santander and a goalless trip to Elche to a home loss against Juventus.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Four clean sheets in eight league games accompany an average of 0.75 goals conceded.
- Only two league matches exceeded 2.5 goals; BTTS occurred in three.
- The 5–0 win over Racing accounts for five of Celta’s eight league goals, concentrating much of their attacking output in one match.
- At home, one win, one draw and two defeats have produced seven goals for and five against.
Availability and selection
Carl Starfelt, Borja Iglesias, Miguel Roman, Pablo Duran and Jones El-Abdellaoui are ruled out through injury. Claudio Giraldez has said Sebastian Caceres will play against Alaves.
- Juventushome1:2
- Elcheaway0:0
- Racing de Santanderhome5:0
- AC Omoniaaway0:1
- Malagahome1:1
Alaves: away attack trails season output
Results entering the trip
Alaves followed their 5–2 win over Osasuna with defeats against Racing de Santander and Valencia, a draw at Athletic Bilbao and a loss to Atletico Madrid. Their latest fixture was on 10 October.
Where the numbers diverge
- Three wins, two draws and three defeats in the league have yielded 12 goals for and eight against.
- Away from home they remain winless: two draws and one defeat, with two goals scored and three conceded.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred in four of eight league games.
- Three league clean sheets include the recent goalless visit to Athletic; eight matches remain a small sample.
Absentees and squad outlook
Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez remain out injured, while Angel Perez is suspended. The away scoring return is the clearest contrast with their overall average of 1.5 goals per league match.
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
- Racing de Santanderaway1:2
- Osasunahome5:2
Head-to-head edge belongs to Celta
Celta have won four of the eight official meetings over the last five years, with two draws and two Alaves victories. Those fixtures produced 28 goals, an average of 3.5; five featured BTTS and five exceeded 2.5 goals. The latest meeting, in March, ended in a 4–3 Alaves win at Balaidos. That history is more goal-heavy than Celta’s current league record.
- 22.03.2026Celta3:4Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 22.11.2025Deportivo Alaves0:1CeltaSpain. La Liga
- 27.01.2025Deportivo Alaves1:1CeltaSpain. La Liga
- 16.08.2024Celta2:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 27.04.2024Deportivo Alaves3:0CeltaSpain. La Liga
The message from the visiting coach
Quique Sanchez Flores says Alaves approach every match intending to perform well and collect the maximum available points. No independent expert opinions or further match-specific news are supplied.
Our pick: protect against the draw
Celta face Alaves at Balaidos, but their five draws in eight league games make draw protection preferable to a straight home win. Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) 1.56: a Celta victory wins the bet, while a draw returns the stake.
Alaves have scored just twice in three away league fixtures without winning any of them. That limited away threat makes Celta’s defensive record—six conceded in eight league matches—the strongest argument for backing the hosts. The caution lies in Celta’s depleted attack: according to media reports, Borja Iglesias and Pablo Duran are unavailable, alongside Carl Starfelt. Iago Aspas's return also supports the selection. With Celta also playing Juventus before this fixture, a narrow margin is more credible than a comfortable win. Predicted score: 1–0.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 1 (0) 1.56 backs Celta against an opponent struggling to score away, without requiring them to break their draw habit. The attacking absences keep confidence measured.
FAQ
When does Celta — Deportivo Alaves kick off?
The match starts on 18.10.2026 at 10:15 (New York), Balaidos (Vigo).
What is the prediction for Celta — Deportivo Alaves?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.56.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Celta win — 44%, draw — 29%, Deportivo Alaves win — 28%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Juventushome1:2
- Elcheaway0:0
- Racing de Santanderhome5:0
- AC Omoniaaway0:1
- Malagahome1:1
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
- Racing de Santanderaway1:2
- Osasunahome5:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12:15 | 13 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12:8 | 11 |
| 8 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:12 | 11 |
| 9 | Celta | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8:6 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
Head-to-head
- 22.03.2026Celta3:4Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 22.11.2025Deportivo Alaves0:1CeltaSpain. La Liga
- 27.01.2025Deportivo Alaves1:1CeltaSpain. La Liga
- 16.08.2024Celta2:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 27.04.2024Deportivo Alaves3:0CeltaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 18 October · 10:15 New York
- Venue: Balaidos (Vigo), Vigo
- Weather: 22° · precip. 0% · wind 4.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 17.10 12:10
A modest home preference in the market
Celta are favourites in 1X2, but their 43.5% market probability is below an even chance. The draw stands at 28.6%, narrowly ahead of an Alaves win at 27.9%. None of those lines has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
The goals market leans towards Under 2.5 at 55.3%. BTTS is more evenly balanced, with “No” at 51.1%. Both markets are also unchanged over the same period: pricing favours a restrained scoring environment without expressing strong confidence in either team keeping a clean sheet.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.56
- Odds at prediction
- 1.54
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 62%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.56
- Potential win
- 56 $
- Status
- pending
