Barcelona — Deportivo Alaves Match Forecast: La Liga
Barcelona
Deportivo AlavesBarcelona host Deportivo Alaves at Camp Nou on 31 October in La Liga’s 11th round. The leaders have 27 points, two ahead of Atletico Madrid; seventh-placed Alaves have 12, five behind sixth-placed Sevilla.
Barcelona: scoring power, defensive disruption
Recent form and home record
Barcelona beat Getafe 3–0, Galatasaray 4–1 and Betis 5–2 before losing 4–2 to Paris Saint-Germain and 2–1 to Real Madrid. They scored 15 and conceded nine across those five matches. Their five league home games have produced four wins and one defeat, with 18 goals for and six against.
Strengths and vulnerabilities
- Nine wins from 10 league games.
- They average 4 goals per league match and concede 1.1.
- Nine of 10 league fixtures have finished Over 2.5 goals.
- Four clean sheets contrast with BTTS in six league matches.
Availability and attacking personnel
Jules Kounde remains out with a left ankle sprain; Eric Garcia, Andreas Christensen, Dani Olmo and Roony Bardghji are also unavailable. Xavi Espart faces two months out and Marc Casado around seven weeks. Pau Cubarsi has recovered after playing the Clasico with a fever. Gabriel Jesus has two league goals in three appearances, while Lamine Yamal has one goal and two assists in three. A full probable XI and formation are not supplied.
- Real Madridhome1:2
- Paris Saint-Germainaway2:4
- Real Betisaway5:2
- Galatasarayaway4:1
- Getafehome3:0
Alaves: compact defending, limited away output
A winless sequence
Alaves’ last five results are defeats by Valencia, Atletico Madrid and Celta, plus draws with Athletic Bilbao and Malaga. They scored three and conceded six. Across their six-match winless run, they collected two points. Their league record is three wins, three draws and four defeats.
Where the balance lies
- Four away league matches have yielded two draws and two defeats.
- They have scored three and conceded five away from home.
- They have conceded 11 league goals, matching Barcelona’s total.
- Three clean sheets and five Over 2.5 finishes show mixed scoring patterns.
Returns could reshape the attack
Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez remain long-term absentees. Lucas Boye is expected to recover from a minor injury, Angel Perez returns from suspension to start, and Toni Martinez could regain a starting place. Aitor Manas and Hugo Novoa Ramos each have one league goal in their listed appearances. No complete probable lineup or formation is available.
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
Head-to-head: Barcelona lead, Alaves won the latest
Barcelona have won six of the seven meetings over the past five years, with Alaves winning the latest encounter 1–0 in May. The aggregate score is 13–4. Barcelona won all three home meetings in that sequence, with two of the seven meetings exceeding 3.5 goals. The record does not consistently point to a high total.
- 13.05.2026Deportivo Alaves1:0BarcelonaSpain. La Liga
- 29.11.2025Barcelona3:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 02.02.2025Barcelona1:0Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 06.10.2024Deportivo Alaves0:3BarcelonaSpain. La Liga
- 03.02.2024Deportivo Alaves1:3BarcelonaSpain. La Liga
Preparation and the coaches’ priorities
Hansi Flick gave Barcelona two days off after the Clasico, followed by a team lunch organised by the captains. He has made three points the priority and said the club could seek a centre-back in the next transfer window. Alaves’ Copa del Rey fixture against Anaitasuna was cancelled following the train tragedy in Spain.
Alaves have allowed the fewest clear scoring chances in the league this season. That defensive record contrasts with their poor results and failure to win away. No separate expert opinions are supplied.
Our Prediction
Barcelona host Deportivo Alaves at Camp Nou after two consecutive defeats, including a 1–2 loss to Real Madrid. The league leaders have scored 40 goals in 10 rounds, averaging 4.0 per match, with 18 goals in five home games. Nine of their 10 league fixtures finished Over 2.5 goals, though that includes both teams’ goals.
Alaves are winless in six matches across all competitions, collecting only two points during that run. Away in the league, they have scored three goals in four matches, recording two defeats and two draws. Barcelona are missing defenders Jules Kounde, Eric Garcia and Andreas Christensen, while Pau Cubarsi is now fully fit and 100% ready after playing in the Clasico with a fever. Hansi Flick has made three points the priority after the Clasico defeat.
Our bet is Barcelona team total Over 2.5 goals 1.4. Barcelona have scored at least three times in three of their last five matches; that scoring rate and their home output support the selection despite the defensive absences. The expected score is 3–0.
Final Verdict
Barcelona team total Over 2.5 goals 1.4 is the selection: the hosts’ scoring record supports backing at least three Barcelona goals rather than relying on Alaves to contribute.
FAQ
When does Barcelona — Deportivo Alaves kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 16:00 (New York), Camp Nou (Barcelona).
What is the prediction for Barcelona — Deportivo Alaves?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (2.5) at 1.4.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Barcelona win — 87%, draw — 9%, Deportivo Alaves win — 4%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Real Madridhome1:2
- Paris Saint-Germainaway2:4
- Real Betisaway5:2
- Galatasarayaway4:1
- Getafehome3:0
- Malagahome1:1
- Celtaaway1:2
- Atletico Madridhome1:2
- Athletic Bilbaoaway0:0
- Valenciahome0:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 17 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | 12 |
Head-to-head
- 13.05.2026Deportivo Alaves1:0BarcelonaSpain. La Liga
- 29.11.2025Barcelona3:1Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 02.02.2025Barcelona1:0Deportivo AlavesSpain. La Liga
- 06.10.2024Deportivo Alaves0:3BarcelonaSpain. La Liga
- 03.02.2024Deportivo Alaves1:3BarcelonaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 31 October · 16:00 New York
- Venue: Camp Nou (Barcelona), Barselona
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 1.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 30.10 18:10
Market: a clear favourite, a divided BTTS outlook
Barcelona carry an 88% market probability of victory. Their price has shortened over the past day, while the draw has drifted; Alaves have also shortened. The movement reinforces Barcelona’s status as the home favourite without making Alaves a major market contender.
Over 3.5 goals is assigned 59.2% and has shortened, while Under has drifted. BTTS remains almost evenly balanced and unchanged. Barcelona’s scoring rate supports a high total, while Alaves’ away output makes both teams scoring less certain.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (2.5)
- Current odds
- 1.4
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match
