Forecast for Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruna in La Liga
Atletico Madrid
Deportivo de A CorunaAtletico Madrid host Deportivo de A Coruna at the Metropolitano in La Liga’s tenth round on 24 October. Atletico sit second, five points behind Barcelona and one ahead of Real Madrid. Ninth-placed Deportivo are level on points with the teams immediately above and below them.
Atletico: home strength meets a crowded schedule
Recent results and scoring patterns
Atletico have four wins and a draw from their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding three. The run includes victories over Real Madrid and Manchester United, followed by a 1:1 draw at Stuttgart. Their four home league fixtures have produced three wins, one draw and a combined score of 10:3.
Where the hosts have an edge
- Seven wins in nine league matches have produced 22 points.
- They average 2.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per league game.
- Four clean sheets show they can win without exchanging goals.
- Seven of nine league games exceeded 2.5 goals, although this remains a short sample.
Absences and attacking options
Koke is out with a left-thigh muscle injury, while Cristian Romero is also unavailable. Their absences reduce options in midfield and defence. Alejandro Baena has a goal and an assist in two listed league appearances; Alex Grimaldo has one goal. The available information does not establish a confirmed probable XI, formation or suspension update.
- VfB Stuttgartaway1:1
- Espanyolaway1:0
- Manchester Unitedhome2:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:1
- Real Madridhome2:1
Deportivo: regular goals, no defensive shutouts
A winless run with friendly fixtures included
Deportivo have three draws and two defeats across their last five outings, including two friendlies. They scored seven goals and conceded ten, with both teams scoring in every match. Their latest league results were a 1:1 home draw against Levante and, earlier, a 3:2 defeat at Real Sociedad.
The visitors’ balance of strengths and weaknesses
- One win, two draws and one defeat away from home show some resistance on their travels.
- Their away league goal balance is level at seven scored and seven conceded.
- BTTS has landed in eight of nine league matches, with no clean sheets.
- Only three league games went over 2.5 goals: frequent exchanges have not produced frequent high totals.
Missing players narrow the options
Marc Casado, Lorenzo Amatucci, Zakaria Eddahchouri and Bright Ede are out; Noe is doubtful. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is not expected back from his meniscus injury until after November’s international break. Mario Soriano and Bil Nsongo each have one goal in two listed appearances, while Riki Rodriguez has an assist. The available information does not establish a probable XI or formation.
- Levante UDhome1:1
- Real Sociedadaway2:3
- Portohome1:3
- Penafielaway2:2
- Real Betishome1:1
One recent meeting, decided by a single goal
The only official meeting in the past five years ended with Atletico winning 1:0 at Deportivo in the Copa del Rey on 13 January 2026. It gives the Madrid side a recent away victory, but one match cannot establish a reliable scoring pattern for this pairing.
- 13.01.2026Deportivo de A Coruna0:1Atletico MadridSpain Copa del Rey
- 01.04.2018Atletico Madrid1:0Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. La Liga
- 04.11.2017Deportivo de A Coruna0:1Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
- 02.03.2017Deportivo de A Coruna1:1Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
- 25.09.2016Atletico Madrid1:0Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. La Liga
Recovery time and Simeone’s priorities
Deportivo have an eight-day interval between league games, whereas Atletico return four days after their European trip. The visitors also trained without days off from 5 October during their October preparations. Diego Simeone has urged David to recover his Lille form and told his squad not to focus on a Champions League final at their own stadium.
Prediction
Atletico Madrid’s home performance and attacking output make Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) за 1.32 the strongest option. They have scored 19 goals in nine La Liga matches, averaging 2.11 per game, while their Metropolitano record is three wins and one draw with 10 goals scored in four fixtures. The recent run also supports the choice: Atletico found the net in all five latest matches, scoring eight times against Real Madrid, Alaves, Manchester United, Espanyol and Stuttgart.
Deportivo have conceded in all nine league rounds and have no clean sheet in the tournament. Their defensive task is complicated by several absences: according to media reports, Mark Casado, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Lorenzo Amatucci, Zakaria Eddahchouri and Bright Ede are unavailable, while Noe is doubtful. Atletico will miss Koke and Cristian Romero, according to media reports, but their attacking level remains higher than Deportivo’s defensive resistance. The market gives the hosts a 73.4% win probability, and the visitors’ nine-match defensive record points toward at least two Madrid goals.
Likely score: Atletico Madrid 2:0 Deportivo de A Coruna.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.32 is supported by Atletico’s 2.11-goal league average, four home matches without defeat and Deportivo’s failure to keep a clean sheet in all nine rounds.
FAQ
When does Atletico Madrid — Deportivo de A Coruna kick off?
The match starts on 24.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Metropolitano (Madrid).
What is the prediction for Atletico Madrid — Deportivo de A Coruna?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.32.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Atletico Madrid win — 73%, draw — 16%, Deportivo de A Coruna win — 10%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- VfB Stuttgartaway1:1
- Espanyolaway1:0
- Manchester Unitedhome2:0
- Deportivo Alavesaway2:1
- Real Madridhome2:1
- Levante UDhome1:1
- Real Sociedadaway2:3
- Portohome1:3
- Penafielaway2:2
- Real Betishome1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39:9 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19:8 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23:9 | 21 |
| 8 | Celta | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:7 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo de A Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13:12 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10:18 | 11 |
Head-to-head
- 13.01.2026Deportivo de A Coruna0:1Atletico MadridSpain Copa del Rey
- 01.04.2018Atletico Madrid1:0Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. La Liga
- 04.11.2017Deportivo de A Coruna0:1Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
- 02.03.2017Deportivo de A Coruna1:1Atletico MadridSpain. La Liga
- 25.09.2016Atletico Madrid1:0Deportivo de A CorunaSpain. La Liga
About the match
- 24 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Metropolitano (Madrid), Madrid
- Weather: 15° · precip. 0% · wind 1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 23.10 15:10
A clear favourite, with a separate goals debate
Atletico are the clear 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free market probability of 73.4%; the draw stands at 16.2%. The line has shown no notable movement over the past 24 hours. Home results and league positions explain that hierarchy, while the hosts’ shorter recovery period is a separate consideration.
The market assigns 59.6% to Over 2.5 goals and 56.1% to BTTS — No. These describe different expectations: a higher total does not require Deportivo to score. The tension is between Atletico’s clean-sheet record and the visitors’ frequent scoring exchanges, rather than a recent change in market direction.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.32
- Odds at prediction
- 1.35
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.35
- Potential win
- 35 $
- Status
- pending
