Russian Cup Prediction: Krylia Sovetov vs Dynamo Makhachkala
Krylia Sovetov
Dynamo MakhachkalaKrylia Sovetov host Dynamo Makhachkala at Samara Arena in the fifth round of Russian Cup Group C on 29 October. The hosts are level on points with second-placed Baltika; Dynamo are bottom after four group matches. Dry conditions, 8°C and light wind should have little effect on play.
Krylia: recovery away, doubts at home
Recent results and scoring balance
Krylia have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. Their latest result, a 2–0 win at Rubin, followed home defeats against Baltika and Fakel.
Strengths and weaknesses
- Krylia scored in four of their last five outings; the Akron friendly supplied half their goals.
- They are third in Group C with six points, two goals scored and three conceded across four rounds.
Availability and selection
Goalkeeper Sergey Pesyakov is injured, midfielder Aleksandar Jukic is doubtful, and defender Ilya Samoshnikov has returned from injury. The probable starting XI, formation and suspension status are unconfirmed.
- Rubin Kazanaway2:0
- Fakel Voronezhhome1:2
- Baltika Kaliningradhome0:2
- Spartak Moscowhome1:1
- Akron Tolyattihome4:0
Dynamo: away scoring remains the obstacle
Form heading into Samara
Dynamo's last five matches brought one win, one draw and three defeats, with five goals scored and 11 conceded. Their only victory was a friendly against Leningradets. Their competitive results were defeats at Orenburg and Zenit, a cup loss to Zenit and a draw with Akron.
Where the pressure lies
- The two recent away games ended in defeats.
- Dynamo conceded in all five fixtures.
- They are fourth in the group with one point and a 3–8 goal balance.
Injuries and squad context
Centre-back Idar Shumakhov is out with a cruciate ligament injury. Daler Kuzyaev joined the squad after the transfer window closed, but a starting role is unconfirmed. Vadim Evseev has prioritised the league and rotated actively in cup matches; the probable XI and formation are unconfirmed.
- Zenit Saint Petersburgaway0:2
- Akron Tolyattihome1:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome1:2
- Orenburgaway0:4
- Leningradetshome3:2
Past meetings favour Dynamo, with sharp swings
Dynamo have won five of the eight official meetings over the last five years, with three Krylia wins and no draws. Four matches went Over 2.5 goals, four featured BTTS, and four ended with one side failing to score.
This season, Krylia won the cup meeting in Makhachkala 2–1 before losing the league encounter in Samara 1–4. Home advantage decided neither match.
- 16.08.2026Krylia Sovetov1:4Dynamo MakhachkalaRussia. Premier League
- 04.08.2026Dynamo Makhachkala1:2Krylia SovetovRussian Cup (Group Stage)
- 08.03.2026Krylia Sovetov2:0Dynamo MakhachkalaRussia. Premier League
- 01.11.2025Dynamo Makhachkala2:0Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
- 15.03.2025Dynamo Makhachkala4:0Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
Coaches stress resilience and commitment
Sergey Bulatov described the Rubin victory as an important mental success earned through perseverance. Evseev said his players had fully followed the previous match plan and praised their attitude. Dynamo need victories in their remaining cup fixtures to preserve their progression chances, despite their stated league priority.
Our forecast
Krylia Sovetov host Dynamo Makhachkala at Samara Arena. The hosts remain in the fight for the top two in Group C, while Dynamo need wins to preserve their minimal qualification chances. Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.36. Krylia scored in four of their last five matches, including two goals away to Rubin in the latest round and four against Akron.
Dynamo conceded in all five previous matches, allowing 11 goals. Central defender Idar Shumakhov is unavailable with a cruciate ligament injury. Vadim Evseev has prioritised the league and regularly rotates in cup games. Krylia have Ilya Samoshnikov back after injury; Sergey Pesyakov remains unavailable and Aleksandar Yukic is doubtful. The hosts have a 49.4% win probability against 23.6% for Dynamo. Expected score: 2:0.
Conclusion
Individual Total 1 Over (1) 1.36 is the recommended selection. Krylia’s scoring in four of their last five matches meets Dynamo’s five-game conceding run and weakened defensive unit.
FAQ
When does Krylia Sovetov — Dynamo Makhachkala kick off?
The match starts on 29.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), Samara Arena (Samara).
What is the prediction for Krylia Sovetov — Dynamo Makhachkala?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1) at 1.36.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Krylia Sovetov win — 49%, draw — 27%, Dynamo Makhachkala win — 24%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Rubin Kazanaway2:0
- Fakel Voronezhhome1:2
- Baltika Kaliningradhome0:2
- Spartak Moscowhome1:1
- Akron Tolyattihome4:0
- Zenit Saint Petersburgaway0:2
- Akron Tolyattihome1:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburghome1:2
- Orenburgaway0:4
- Leningradetshome3:2
Standings · Group C
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit Saint Petersburg | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 11 |
| 2 | Baltika Kaliningrad | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Krylia Sovetov | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2:3 | 6 |
| 4 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:8 | 1 |
Head-to-head
- 16.08.2026Krylia Sovetov1:4Dynamo MakhachkalaRussia. Premier League
- 04.08.2026Dynamo Makhachkala1:2Krylia SovetovRussian Cup (Group Stage)
- 08.03.2026Krylia Sovetov2:0Dynamo MakhachkalaRussia. Premier League
- 01.11.2025Dynamo Makhachkala2:0Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
- 15.03.2025Dynamo Makhachkala4:0Krylia SovetovRussia. Premier League
About the match
- 29 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Samara Arena (Samara), Samara
- Weather: 8° · precip. 0% · wind 0.7 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 10:10
Home favouritism without a decisive majority
Krylia's margin-free 1X2 probability is 49.4%, against 27% for the draw and 23.6% for Dynamo: the hosts are favourites, but below a 50% chance of winning.
Under 2.5 has a 51.4% probability and BTTS 52%, leaving both goals markets close to balanced. There has been no notable movement over the past 24 hours in the 1X2, total-goals or BTTS lines.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1)
- Current odds
- 1.36
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.36
- Potential win
- 36 $
- Status
- pending
