Russian Cup Prediction: Fakel Voronezh vs Akhmat Match Preview
Fakel Voronezh
AkhmatMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.49 pending
- Yellow cards: Total Under (5) 1.3 pending
Fakel host Akhmat in Voronezh on 27 October in the fifth round of Russian Cup Group B. Both have 4 points, five behind Dynamo Moscow. Fakel are fourth and Akhmat third.
Fakel: away progress, home setbacks
Recent results and scoring
Fakel have three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. The wins include a friendly against Vitebsk and their latest two away games against Krasnodar and Krylia Sovetov. Their last two home appearances ended in scoreless defeats to Lokomotiv Moscow and Rodina.
Where the balance breaks down
- Three home cup matches have produced three defeats and a combined score of 4–7.
- Across five cup appearances, Fakel average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded.
- BTTS and Over 2.5 goals each occurred three times, with one clean sheet.
Team selection and recovery
Alexey Sutormin has undergone surgery on his left hand and started rehabilitation. Alexey Rebko takes charge for the final time as interim coach before Roland Gusev takes over.
- Rodina Moscowhome0:1
- Krylia Sovetovaway2:1
- Krasnodaraway2:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowhome0:5
- Vitebskhome1:0
Akhmat: attacking output without protection
A winless five-match run
Akhmat have drawn once and lost four times in their last five games. They have lost their latest three. Their two away matches in that run ended in defeats at Akron and Zenit, despite scoring twice in Saint Petersburg.
The cup's defensive warning
- All three away cup appearances ended in defeat, with five goals scored and ten conceded.
- Their five cup games average 1.6 goals for and 2.6 against, with no clean sheets.
- All five cup matches exceeded 2.5 goals and four featured BTTS.
Rotation and an injury concern
Stanislav Cherchesov plans to rotate for the cup. Maksim Samorodov returned from Kazakhstan duty injured and is training with restrictions; his availability remains under assessment.
Goalkeeper Maksim Borisko has prevented more than ten goals since the start of last league season. Cherchesov has praised Lechi Sadulaev's improved work for the team.
- Orenburghome0:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburgaway2:3
- Dynamo Moscowhome1:2
- Baltika Kaliningradhome0:0
- Akron Tolyattiaway0:2
Home meetings have followed a quieter pattern
Fakel lead the eight official meetings with three wins to Akhmat's two and three draws. In Voronezh, Fakel are unbeaten in four meetings, with one win and three draws; the latest two finished goalless. Akhmat won the most recent encounter, August's cup match, 2–1.
- 18.08.2026Akhmat2:1Fakel VoronezhRussian Cup (Group Stage)
- 10.08.2026Fakel Voronezh0:0AkhmatRussia. Premier League
- 05.04.2025Fakel Voronezh0:0AkhmatRussia. Premier League
- 18.10.2024Akhmat2:3Fakel VoronezhRussia. Premier League
- 25.05.2024Fakel Voronezh2:0AkhmatRussia. Premier League
Coaches focus on different problems
Rebko described the Rodina contest as a physical Premier League game and questioned inconsistent treatment of penalty incidents. Fakel general director Dmitry Kondratov also criticised the refereeing. Cherchesov says Akhmat's play has improved but must translate into results.
Our pick: Akhmat to score
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.32. Akhmat have scored eight goals in five cup matches, finding the net in four of them. Their five goals across three away fixtures are more relevant to this selection than their results: the bet needs a goal, not an away victory.
Fakel have conceded seven goals in three home cup games. That defensive record offers Akhmat a route to scoring even without controlling the contest. There are reasons for caution: Cherchesov plans to rotate, while, according to media reports, Maksim Samorodov is training with restrictions after an injury. The visitors have also scored in only two of their last five matches across all competitions, so their cup output should not be treated as a guarantee. A possible score is 1:1.
Final betting view
Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.32 targets Akhmat's cup scoring rather than a recovery in results. The small sample and selection changes limit confidence, but Fakel's home defensive record makes a single away goal the preferred angle.
FAQ
When does Fakel Voronezh — Akhmat kick off?
The match starts on 27.10.2026 at 11:00 (New York), Fakel (Voronezh).
What is the prediction for Fakel Voronezh — Akhmat?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (0.5) at 1.32.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Fakel Voronezh win — 34%, draw — 30%, Akhmat win — 36%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Rodina Moscowhome0:1
- Krylia Sovetovaway2:1
- Krasnodaraway2:0
- Lokomotiv Moscowhome0:5
- Vitebskhome1:0
- Orenburghome0:1
- Zenit Saint Petersburgaway2:3
- Dynamo Moscowhome1:2
- Baltika Kaliningradhome0:0
- Akron Tolyattiaway0:2
Standings · Group B
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dynamo Moscow | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | 7 |
| 3 | Akhmat | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 4 | Fakel Voronezh | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:4 | 4 |
Head-to-head
- 18.08.2026Akhmat2:1Fakel VoronezhRussian Cup (Group Stage)
- 10.08.2026Fakel Voronezh0:0AkhmatRussia. Premier League
- 05.04.2025Fakel Voronezh0:0AkhmatRussia. Premier League
- 18.10.2024Akhmat2:3Fakel VoronezhRussia. Premier League
- 25.05.2024Fakel Voronezh2:0AkhmatRussia. Premier League
About the match
- 27 October · 11:00 New York
- Venue: Fakel (Voronezh), Voronezh
- Weather: 10° · precip. 0% · wind 2.1 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 27.10 05:10
A narrow away preference is weakening
Akhmat remain the market favourite at 41.3%, ahead of Fakel at 29.7% and the draw at 29.1%. Over the last 24 hours, support has shifted towards the hosts and the draw.
Under 2.5 goals has a 52.9% assessment and has attracted support. BTTS is also assessed at 52.9%, with no notable movement.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (0.5)
- Current odds
- 1.32
- Odds at prediction
- 1.26
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 74%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.26
- Potential win
- 26 $
- Status
- pending
