V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy: Japan J-League Match Prediction
V-Varen Nagasaki
Tokyo VerdyMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (0.5) 1.25 won
Match result
V-Varen Nagasaki 1:2 Tokyo Verdy (0:1, 1:1)
In the Japan J-League match, Tokyo Verdy defeated V-Varen Nagasaki with a score of 1:2. The visitors led 0:1 in the first half, and the second half ended 1:1. By scoring a goal, V-Varen Nagasaki ensured that our prediction for Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) successfully won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) at 1.31 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (0.5) at 1.25 — the bet won.
V-Varen Nagasaki host Tokyo Verdy at Peace Stadium in Tour 13 of the Japan J-League. Nagasaki sit fifteenth with 12 points, while Verdy are eighteenth with 8. Nagasaki have played one match fewer, so a home result would also change the balance of this lower-table group.
V-Varen Nagasaki: home strength against unstable form
Nagasaki have won once, drawn once and lost three of their last five matches, scoring 6 goals and conceding 6. They have scored in three of those games but failed to find the net in the last two away fixtures, losing 0:2 at Kashima Antlers and 0:1 at Urawa Red Diamonds. The clearest positive came at home, where they defeated Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4:0. Their recent record therefore depends heavily on venue: the attack produced four goals in its latest home match, but the team has scored only 2 goals across four recent away games.
Structure, production and unavailable players
- Standings profile: 15th place, 15 goals scored and 19 conceded in 12 league matches.
- Recent defensive trend: clean sheets in one of the last five matches, with goals conceded in four.
- Main tournament contributors: Kenshin Yasuda has 3 goals in 4 matches; Matheus Sousa de Jesus has 1 goal and 2 assists in 4.
- Norman Campbell, Keita Takahata, Luka Radiotic and Takumi Nagura are ruled out with injuries, according to media reports.
The available information does not specify Nagasaki’s expected starting eleven or formation. Yasuda and Sousa de Jesus remain the clearest reference points in the final third. Hijiri Onaga has also scored once in three tournament appearances.
- Urawa Red Diamondsaway0:1
- Sanfrecce Hiroshimahome4:0
- Kashima Antlersaway0:2
- JEF United Ichihara Chibaaway1:1
- Shimizu S-Pulseaway1:2
Tokyo Verdy: improved result, fragile defensive baseline
Tokyo Verdy have taken two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five matches. They scored 6 and conceded 9, with goals in three games and goals allowed in four. The sequence includes a 1:0 cup win away at Gainare Tottori, heavy home defeats to Sanfrecce Hiroshima and Tokyo, a 2:2 draw at Yokohama F. Marinos, and a 3:1 home win over Avispa Fukuoka. The latest victory restored attacking momentum, but the preceding 0:4 defeat shows how quickly their defensive shape can break down.
Table pressure and squad availability
- Verdy are 18th with 8 points, 9 goals scored and 21 conceded in 12 league matches.
- Their league attack has produced fewer goals than Nagasaki’s, while the defensive gap is also negative: 21 conceded against 9 scored.
- Kota Fujimoto, Goki Yamada and Issei Kumatoriya have each scored once in the tournament.
- Kazuyа Miyahara, Taiju Yoshida and Hiroto Yamami are injured, according to media reports; Itsuki Someno has returned after suspension.
The expected lineup and tactical scheme are not provided. Someno’s return gives Verdy an additional available option after suspension, but three injury absences remain part of the selection picture. The 3:1 win over Avispa shows that Verdy can create a productive attacking spell at home; the away draw at Yokohama also brought two goals, although it came with two conceded.
- Avispa Fukuokahome3:1
- Yokohama F. Marinosaway2:2
- Tokyohome0:4
- Sanfrecce Hiroshimahome0:2
- Gainare Tottoriaway1:0
Previous meetings favor neither side clearly
The last five official meetings are balanced from Nagasaki’s perspective: two wins, one draw and two defeats. Nagasaki scored 7 goals and conceded 5 across those fixtures. The latest meeting ended with a 2:1 Nagasaki win away from home, while the two most recent matches hosted by Nagasaki produced a 1:1 draw and a 1:2 defeat.
Three of the five meetings saw both teams score, and the total goal count reached at least three in three of them. The head-to-head record offers no strong winner advantage, but it does show that this pairing has often produced chances for both attacks.
- 05.07.2023Tokyo Verdy1:2V-Varen NagasakiJapan. J-League Division 2
- 07.05.2023V-Varen Nagasaki1:2Tokyo VerdyJapan. J-League Division 2
- 06.08.2022Tokyo Verdy1:0V-Varen NagasakiJapan. J-League Division 2
- 19.02.2022V-Varen Nagasaki1:1Tokyo VerdyJapan. J-League Division 2
- 07.11.2021Tokyo Verdy0:3V-Varen NagasakiJapan. J-League Division 2
Team news and the competitive context
The confirmed news is concentrated on absences. Nagasaki lose Campbell, Takahata, Radiotic and Nagura through injury, while Verdy are without Miyahara, Yoshida and Yamami. Someno’s return after suspension is the only stated squad boost. No further expert opinions, confirmed formations or additional motivation details are provided in the available facts.
The table raises the value of every point. Nagasaki are four points above Verdy and have a superior goal difference, but their recent away defeats underline the need for a more reliable performance. Verdy enter after beating Avispa Fukuoka, yet remain the lowest-ranked side among the two and have scored only 9 league goals.
Line-ups
V-Varen Nagasaki
Starting XI: 1. Goto Masaaki, 5. Hotaru Yamaguchi, 6. Yusei Egawa, 10. Matheus Sousa de Jesus, 16. Emerson Santana Deocleciano, 22. Hijiri Onaga, 23. Shunya Yoneda, 31. Kanta Doi, 41. Motoki Hasegawa, 50. Ryosuke Shindo, 99. Jonathan Luiz Moreira Rosa Junior
Substitutes: 7. Kenshin Yasuda, 8. Yuto Ivasaki, 9. Tiago Santos Santana, 13. Go Hatano, 18. Ryogo Yamasaki, 21. Diego Pituca, 34. Tenmu Matsumoto, 44. Kharumu Nabeshima, 88. Asahi Masuyama
Coach: Takuya Takagi
Tokyo Verdy
Starting XI: 1. Matheus Vidotto, 4. Naoki Hayashi, 8. Kosuke Saito, 9. Itsuki Someno, 16. Rei Hirakawa, 18. Shuhei Mizoguchi, 19. Kota Fujimoto, 22. Yosuke Uchida, 33. Kazunari Ichimi, 40. Yuta Arai, 96. Yu-Min Cho
Substitutes: 2. Kai Shibato, 7. Yuan Matsuhashi, 10. Kohei Morita, 13. Goki Yamada, 15. Kaito Suzuki, 21. Yuya Nagasawa, 25. Issei Kumatoriya, 29. Maaya Sako, 45. Shimon Teranuma
Coach: Naoki Soma
Our pick: Nagasaki to score
At Peace Stadium, V-Varen Nagasaki need a goal rather than a victory to deliver our pick: Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) 1.31. Their latest home league appearance ended in a 4:0 win over Sanfrecce Hiroshima. That result is more relevant to this scoring target than their recent away blanks, although one home performance cannot establish a reliable trend.
Verdy have conceded in four successive matches across all competitions, offering Nagasaki a route to the single goal required. Kenshin Yasuda has scored 3 times in 4 league appearances, while Matheus Sousa de Jesus has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in 4. Nagasaki also scored in both home meetings included in the recent head-to-head record. Those attacking contributions should not be treated as guaranteed selections. A possible score is 1:1.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (0.5) 1.31 keeps the requirement narrower than a home win: Nagasaki can concede and still deliver the bet. Their latest home attacking display and Verdy’s run without a clean sheet support that target.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Urawa Red Diamondsaway0:1
- Sanfrecce Hiroshimahome4:0
- Kashima Antlersaway0:2
- JEF United Ichihara Chibaaway1:1
- Shimizu S-Pulseaway1:2
- Avispa Fukuokahome3:1
- Yokohama F. Marinosaway2:2
- Tokyohome0:4
- Sanfrecce Hiroshimahome0:2
- Gainare Tottoriaway1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 17:23 | 13 |
| 15 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 16:21 | 12 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 14:21 | 12 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 18 | JEF United Ichihara Chiba | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15:24 | 10 |
Head-to-head
- 05.07.2023Tokyo Verdy1:2V-Varen NagasakiJapan. J-League Division 2
- 07.05.2023V-Varen Nagasaki1:2Tokyo VerdyJapan. J-League Division 2
- 06.08.2022Tokyo Verdy1:0V-Varen NagasakiJapan. J-League Division 2
- 19.02.2022V-Varen Nagasaki1:1Tokyo VerdyJapan. J-League Division 2
- 07.11.2021Tokyo Verdy0:3V-Varen NagasakiJapan. J-League Division 2
About the match
- 1 November · 01:00 New York
- Venue: Peace Stadium (Nagasaki)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market view and expected match pattern
The 1X2 market gives Nagasaki the status of a narrow home favorite, but the gap to Tokyo Verdy is modest: the estimated probabilities are 38.9% for a home win, 28.8% for a draw and 32.3% for an away win. With no meaningful line movement during the last 24 hours, the market is not registering a late change in its assessment.
The totals market leans toward Under 2.5 goals, assessed at 56%, while Over 2.5 is at 44%. The BTTS market is almost level, with Yes at 50.6% and No at 49.5%. That combination points to a relatively cautious goal expectation, but the recent head-to-head record and the two teams’ defensive concessions leave room for both attacks to contribute. The bookmaker’s 1X2 margin is 5.4%, so the small home advantage should not be treated as a decisive separation.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (0.5)
- Odds
- 1.31
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 71%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.31
- Potential win
- 31 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.31
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +31 $