Forecast: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-Pulse | Japan J-League
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Shimizu S-PulseMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.26 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (3.5) 1.25 won
Match result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4:0 Shimizu S-Pulse (1:0, 3:0)
In the Japan J-League match, Sanfrecce Hiroshima defeated Shimizu S-Pulse with a 4:0 final score. The home team led 1:0 in the first half and scored 3:0 in the second period. With four goals from the host side, our prediction on Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) easily won.
Our prediction: Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.44 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.26 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (3.5) at 1.25 — the bet won.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima host Shimizu S-Pulse at Edion Peace Wing on 24 October in J-League Round 12. Hiroshima are three points behind the leaders, while Shimizu sit in the lower half. Both teams return just three days after heavy league defeats, making their response central to this fixture.
Hiroshima: strong home results, abrupt away setback
Recent form and scoring patterns
Hiroshima won four consecutive matches before losing 4:0 at V-Varen Nagasaki. Across those five games, they scored 10 goals and conceded four, with every goal against arriving in that last outing. Their two home fixtures produced wins over Iwaki and Kyoto Sanga by a combined 7:0; away, two clean-sheet victories preceded the collapse.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Third place with 23 points from 11 league games keeps Hiroshima directly involved in the title race.
- Their league return of 25 goals is substantially stronger than Shimizu's attacking output.
- Four clean sheets in five matches show defensive control before the latest defeat, rather than a run of repeated concessions.
- Over 2.5 goals occurred in three of those five games, but BTTS landed in none: the scoring was entirely one-sided.
Key contributors and selection
Akito Suzuki leads the listed tournament contributors with two goals and two assists in three appearances. Daiki Suga and Taishi Matsumoto have one goal each over the same appearance count. No fresh team news is available to establish a probable lineup, formation, injuries or suspensions.
- V-Varen Nagasakiaway0:4
- Kyoto Sangahome3:0
- Matsumoto Yamagaaway1:0
- Tokyo Verdyaway2:0
- Iwakihome4:0
Shimizu: scoring threat offset by repeated concessions
Results at home and on the road
Shimizu's last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with seven goals scored and 11 conceded. Their latest result was a 5:0 home loss to Machida Zelvia, following a 2:2 draw with Gamba Osaka. The two away fixtures in this sequence ended in a 2:1 win at Mito HollyHock and a 2:1 defeat at Yokohama F. Marinos.
Attacking returns and defensive exposure
- Shimizu are 11th with 14 points from 11 league matches, nine points behind their hosts.
- Their league goal record is 10 scored and 16 conceded, a negative balance of six.
- They conceded in all five recent fixtures, leaving no clean sheet to cushion weaker attacking performances.
- All five matches went Over 2.5 goals, while BTTS occurred in four before the Machida defeat.
Players carrying the attacking output
Tomoya Fujii has one goal and one assist in three tournament appearances. Hidehiro Sugai and Yuki Honda have each scored once in three games. A confirmed selection, tactical shape and availability update are unavailable.
- Machida Zelviahome0:5
- Gamba Osakahome2:2
- Yokohama F. Marinosaway1:2
- Mito HollyHockaway2:1
- V-Varen Nagasakihome2:1
Head-to-head: a narrow overall edge for Shimizu
The 10 official meetings over five years produced four Shimizu wins, three Hiroshima wins and three draws. The eight listed encounters contained 21 goals, with BTTS in five. Venue changes the picture: Hiroshima are unbeaten in the four listed home meetings, winning three and drawing one, with an aggregate score of 7:1. The most recent meeting there ended 2:1 in April.
- 11.04.2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima2:1Shimizu S-PulseJapan. 100 Year Vision League. J1 Division
- 22.03.2026Shimizu S-Pulse3:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJapan. 100 Year Vision League. J1 Division
- 10.08.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:0Shimizu S-PulseJapan. J-League
- 06.08.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:0Shimizu S-PulseJapan. Emperors Cup
- 26.02.2025Shimizu S-Pulse1:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJapan. J-League
Match news and outside assessments
No fresh match-specific news is available.
Line-ups
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Starting XI: 1. Keisuke Osako, 4. Hayato Araki, 5. Naoto Arai, 8. Takumu Kawamura, 10. Akito Suzuki, 11. Mutsuki Kato, 14. Taishi Matsumoto, 15. Shuto Nakano, 18. Daiki Suga, 23. Shun Ayukawa, 37. Kim Joo-sung
Substitutes: 6. Hayao Kawabe, 7. Shunki Higashi, 9. Kusini Yengi, 29. Takuma Asano, 32. Sota Koshimichi, 35. Yotaro Nakajima, 45. Shimon Kobayashi, 46. Rento Noguchi, 99. Issei Ouchi
Coach: Gaul Bartosch
Shimizu S-Pulse
Starting XI: 4. Sodai Hasukawa, 7. Joao Victor da Vitoria Fernandes, 13. Ryo Germain, 14. Park Seung-Wook, 16. Togo Umeda, 17. Masaki Yumiba, 18. Taiki Hirato, 19. Kosuke Kinoshita, 24. Hidehiro Sugai, 25. Mateus Brunetti, 47. Yudai Shimamoto
Substitutes: 1. Yuya Oki, 9. Oh Se-hun, 28. Yutaka Yoshida, 37. Kei Koizumi, 39. Haruto Hidaka, 41. Keigo Suzuki, 50. Tomoya Fujii, 81. Kazuki Kozuka, 97. Rinsei Ohata
Coach: Tatsuma Yoshida
Our pick: Hiroshima to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.44. Sanfrecce Hiroshima have scored 25 goals in 11 league matches. The selection targets that attacking output rather than requiring a home win: two Hiroshima goals are enough, regardless of Shimizu S-Pulse's response.
The hosts scored seven goals across their last two home fixtures, against Iwaki and Kyoto Sanga. Shimizu have conceded at least twice in each of their last three outings, so this threshold does not depend on a repeat of their five-goal collapse against Machida. Hiroshima's scoreless defeat at Nagasaki is the main caution: a return home supports the pick, but does not guarantee an immediate recovery. No fresh team news is available to assess changes in personnel. A plausible score is 2:1.
Final betting view
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.44 keeps the focus on Hiroshima's scoring capacity against a defence conceding repeatedly. It is preferable to tying the bet to the match result, with the hosts' latest setback still a relevant risk.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- V-Varen Nagasakiaway0:4
- Kyoto Sangahome3:0
- Matsumoto Yamagaaway1:0
- Tokyo Verdyaway2:0
- Iwakihome4:0
- Machida Zelviahome0:5
- Gamba Osakahome2:2
- Yokohama F. Marinosaway1:2
- Mito HollyHockaway2:1
- V-Varen Nagasakihome2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 21:8 | 24 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 25:10 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 18:11 | 22 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 14:15 | 16 |
| 11 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10:16 | 14 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 13:17 | 13 |
Head-to-head
- 11.04.2026Sanfrecce Hiroshima2:1Shimizu S-PulseJapan. 100 Year Vision League. J1 Division
- 22.03.2026Shimizu S-Pulse3:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJapan. 100 Year Vision League. J1 Division
- 10.08.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:0Shimizu S-PulseJapan. J-League
- 06.08.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima3:0Shimizu S-PulseJapan. Emperors Cup
- 26.02.2025Shimizu S-Pulse1:1Sanfrecce HiroshimaJapan. J-League
About the match
- 24 October · 01:00 New York
- Venue: Edion Peace Wing (Hiroshima)
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market assessment: clear home favouritism
The 1X2 market assigns Hiroshima a 66.8% chance, against 19.6% for the draw and 13.6% for Shimizu. That is clear home favouritism despite the hosts' latest defeat. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 59.2% market probability, whereas BTTS is more evenly balanced at 52.6% for yes. The distinction fits the recent scoring patterns: higher totals have not required both teams to score in Hiroshima's matches, while Shimizu's games have more often involved goals at both ends. Neither goals market has shifted noticeably.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Odds
- 1.44
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 64%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.44
- Potential win
- 44 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.44
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +44 $