Serie B Match Preview and Prediction: Modena vs Mantova
Modena
MantovaModena host Mantova at Alberto Braglia on 31 October in Serie B’s 10th round. Second meets fourth. The hosts trail leaders Palermo by four points; the visitors can move above Modena with a win. Both played on 27 October, leaving the same recovery interval.
Modena: scoring momentum with defensive gaps
Recent form and home strength
Modena have won four of their last five matches. Their latest results were a 3:0 home win over Cesena and a 2:1 victory at Vicenza. They scored in all five games. At home this league season, three wins and one defeat have produced eight goals for and four against: productive attacking returns, without consistently shutting opponents out.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Six wins from nine league games have taken Modena to 19 points.
- Their 17 league goals represent an average of 1.89 per match.
- Seven of nine fixtures finished Over 2.5 goals, while six featured BTTS.
- Only two league clean sheets temper the advantage created by their attack.
Players and selection
Belotti leads the listed scorers with five goals in four appearances. Kazo has one goal and two assists across three outings, while Montevago has scored once in four.
- Vicenza Calcioaway2:1
- Cesenahome3:0
- Carrarese Calcioaway1:2
- Hellas Veronahome3:2
- Empolihome2:1
Mantova: stronger away than recent results suggest
Form and the away contrast
Mantova’s last five matches brought two wins, one draw and two defeats. A 0:2 home defeat to Cremonese followed a 1:0 victory at Virtus Entella. The split matters: their other recent away game was a 3:1 win at Catanzaro, whereas their last two home appearances ended without a goal.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Mantova are unbeaten in four league away games, with three wins and one draw.
- Seven goals scored and three conceded on the road give them a positive away balance.
- Across nine league fixtures, they have scored 14 goals and conceded 10.
- BTTS occurred five times, Over 2.5 goals four times, and clean sheets twice.
Attacking contributors and availability
Tomashevich, Bragantini and Ruokko each have one goal in four listed appearances. Those returns do not identify a dominant scorer, so attributing Mantova’s attacking output to one player would be premature. Their fourth-place position and 17 points keep them close to the leading group.
- Cremonesehome0:2
- Virtus Entellaaway1:0
- Citta di Palermohome0:2
- Catanzaro 1929away3:1
- Pisahome2:2
Recent meetings favour the hosts
Modena have three wins and a draw from the four official meetings over the past five years. The latest was a 2:1 home victory in March 2026. That history contrasts with Mantova’s unbeaten away record this season, rather than cancelling it out.
- 21.03.2026Modena2:1MantovaItaly. Serie B
- 20.09.2025Mantova1:3ModenaItaly. Serie B
- 01.02.2025Modena3:1MantovaItaly. Serie B
- 30.11.2024Mantova0:0ModenaItaly. Serie B
- 14.03.2021Modena1:1MantovaItaly. Serie C. Group B
Match updates and external views
No fresh match-specific facts were found.
Modena Edge with Protection
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) за 1.42. Modena enter the match in stronger form: four wins in their last five fixtures. They have also won their last two matches, including a 3:0 home victory over Cesena and a 2:1 success away to Vicenza. Across the season, the hosts have taken 19 points from 9 rounds and sit second, while their home record is 3 wins and 1 defeat from 4 matches.
Mantova are fourth with 17 points, but their recent sequence is less stable: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in five games. The latest result was a 0:2 home loss to Cremonese, and Mantova failed to score in both of their most recent home defeats. The head-to-head record adds weight to the home side: Modena have 3 wins and 1 draw in the last 4 official meetings. Mantova’s away record is strong at 3 wins and 1 draw, which makes the draw protection essential rather than an aggressive home-win selection. Expected score: 2:1.
Conclusion
Handicap 1 (0) is the preferred selection. Modena combine better current form, home advantage and a clear recent head-to-head edge; if the match ends level, the stake is protected.
FAQ
When does Modena — Mantova kick off?
The match starts on 31.10.2026 at 10:00 (New York), Alberto Braglia (Modena).
What is the prediction for Modena — Mantova?
Our pick is Handicap 1 (0) at 1.42.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Modena win — 46%, draw — 28%, Mantova win — 26%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Vicenza Calcioaway2:1
- Cesenahome3:0
- Carrarese Calcioaway1:2
- Hellas Veronahome3:2
- Empolihome2:1
- Cremonesehome0:2
- Virtus Entellaaway1:0
- Citta di Palermohome0:2
- Catanzaro 1929away3:1
- Pisahome2:2
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citta di Palermo | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 21:11 | 23 |
| 2 | Modena | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 17:9 | 19 |
| 3 | Ascoli Calcio 1898 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 16:6 | 18 |
| 4 | Mantova | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 14:10 | 17 |
| 5 | Benevento Calcio | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14:8 | 15 |
Head-to-head
- 21.03.2026Modena2:1MantovaItaly. Serie B
- 20.09.2025Mantova1:3ModenaItaly. Serie B
- 01.02.2025Modena3:1MantovaItaly. Serie B
- 30.11.2024Mantova0:0ModenaItaly. Serie B
- 14.03.2021Modena1:1MantovaItaly. Serie C. Group B
About the match
- 31 October · 10:00 New York
- Venue: Alberto Braglia (Modena), Modena
- Weather: 17° · precip. 0% · wind 1.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 31.10 06:10
Market balance: home edge, but no strong certainty
The 1X2 market makes Modena favourites with a margin-adjusted win probability of 52.3%, against 25.9% for the draw and 21.9% for Mantova. That is a modest home advantage, consistent with the hosts’ scoring form but checked by the visitors’ road results. No notable movement has occurred over the past 24 hours.
Over 2.5 goals is assessed at 57.7%, while BTTS stands at 59%. The scoring markets therefore lean towards goals at both ends, although Mantova’s season has contained fewer high-total matches than Modena’s. With only nine league games per side, those percentages describe market expectations rather than a settled scoring pattern.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 1 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.42
- Odds at prediction
- 1.29
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Market estimate
- 64%
- Status
- pending
The bet will be placed 1–3 hours before the match