Rot-Weiss Essen vs RasenBallsport Leipzig Prediction: DFB Pokal
Rot-Weiss Essen
RasenBallsport LeipzigRot-Weiss Essen host RasenBallsport Leipzig at Stadion an der Hafenstraße in the second round of the DFB Pokal on 27 October. A place in the next round is at stake, with the third-tier hosts facing visitors whose last five fixtures span the Bundesliga and Champions League. Dry weather and 16°C are expected, although gusts could reach 9.8 m/s.
Essen: home defending offers a foothold
Recent results and venue split
Essen have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches. That sequence includes a friendly draw with Arminia Bielefeld. Their two home games brought wins over Fortuna Koln and Jahn Regensburg; away from home, draws at Bielefeld and Preussen Munster preceded a defeat at Ingolstadt.
Strengths and weaknesses
The home wins were both clean sheets, while Essen conceded in each of their three away fixtures. Essen scored in four of the five games, but the 0:1 loss at Ingolstadt exposed a lower attacking floor than the earlier 3:3 draw at Munster. Their cup return is one win with two goals scored and none conceded: too small a sample to establish a tournament trend.
Availability and attacking options
Jan Potocnik, Semir Telalovic and Marvin Obuz are unavailable through injury. Losing three players reduces the attacking options for a side pursuing promotion to the second division.
- Jahn Regensburghome1:0
- Ingolstadt 04away0:1
- Fortuna Kolnhome2:0
- Preussen Munsteraway3:3
- Arminia Bielefeldaway2:2
Leipzig: scoring output masks an away weakness
Five matches with sharp contrasts
Leipzig have won three and lost two of their last five. Home victories over Eintracht Frankfurt, PSV Eindhoven and Elversberg were all clean sheets. The two away trips ended in defeats at Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
Attacking continuity, uneven resistance
Leipzig scored in all five games. Their attacking consistency has not prevented heavy concessions away from home. Those trips were against Bayern and Real, so the defensive figures should not be transferred directly to a third-tier opponent.
Who is available?
Yan Diomande has recovered from an infection but is unavailable after receiving permission to travel to Madrid for a Real medical. Marc Guiu and Leopold Zingerle have Champions League suspensions; these do not establish domestic-cup ineligibility. No probable XI or formation is supplied.
- Elversberghome4:0
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Bayern Munichaway1:6
- PSV Eindhovenhome1:0
- Eintracht Frankfurthome6:0
One previous cup meeting
The only official meeting in the past five years ended in a 4:1 Leipzig victory at Essen on 17 August 2024. Both teams scored and the match produced five goals, but one encounter cannot establish a recurring scoring pattern. Current league positions and comparative strength figures are not supplied.
- 17.08.2024Rot-Weiss Essen1:4RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany DFB Pokal
- 26.01.2001RasenBallsport Leipzig0:2Rot-Weiss EssenGermany. Regionalliga North
- 03.08.2000Rot-Weiss Essen3:1RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Regionalliga North
Demichelis plays down the European setback
Martin Demichelis described the heavy defeat against Real Madrid as “not a catastrophe”. Leipzig's stated priorities are to progress in the cup and avoid injuries against third-tier opposition. No separate expert assessment of this tie is supplied.
Our pick: Leipzig to clear two goals
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (2) 1.27. Leipzig scored six against Frankfurt and four against Elversberg, showing the attacking ceiling needed against third-tier Essen. This selection targets the visitors' scoring rather than requiring a clean sheet or a particular winning margin.
The main caution is the venue split: those big wins came at home, while Leipzig scored once in each of their last two away games. Essen have also kept successive home clean sheets, so three visiting goals are no certainty. Yet the hosts will be without Jan Potocnik, Semir Telalovic and Marvin Obuz through injury, reducing their options to retain possession and relieve pressure through midfield and attack. Leipzig's four goals on their previous visit offer a relevant, if limited, comparison. Expected score: 1:3.
Final betting view
Individual Total 2 Over (2) 1.27 targets Leipzig's scoring output; settlement conditions are not specified in the supplied data. That protection matters given their quieter recent away performances; the case rests on their attacking output against weaker opposition.
FAQ
When does Rot-Weiss Essen — RasenBallsport Leipzig kick off?
The match starts on 27.10.2026 at 13:00 (New York), Stadion an der Hafenstraße (Essen).
What is the prediction for Rot-Weiss Essen — RasenBallsport Leipzig?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (2) at 1.27.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Rot-Weiss Essen win — 6%, draw — 11%, RasenBallsport Leipzig win — 82%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Jahn Regensburghome1:0
- Ingolstadt 04away0:1
- Fortuna Kolnhome2:0
- Preussen Munsteraway3:3
- Arminia Bielefeldaway2:2
- Elversberghome4:0
- Real Madridaway1:4
- Bayern Munichaway1:6
- PSV Eindhovenhome1:0
- Eintracht Frankfurthome6:0
Head-to-head
- 17.08.2024Rot-Weiss Essen1:4RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany DFB Pokal
- 26.01.2001RasenBallsport Leipzig0:2Rot-Weiss EssenGermany. Regionalliga North
- 03.08.2000Rot-Weiss Essen3:1RasenBallsport LeipzigGermany. Regionalliga North
About the match
- 27 October · 13:00 New York
- Venue: Stadion an der Hafenstraße (Essen)
- Weather: 16° · precip. 0% · wind 5.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 27.10 05:10
A clear favourite, closer goal markets
The margin-adjusted 1X2 market assigns Leipzig an 81.3% chance of victory, against 6.7% for Essen and 12.1% for a draw. All supplied lines have remained broadly unchanged over the past 24 hours, with no recorded shift in sentiment towards either side.
The goal markets are much closer: Over 3.5 has a 52.8% probability, while BTTS is assessed at 51.4%. The distinction matters: strong confidence in the visitors does not extend to a clear market view on Essen scoring or the match reaching four goals.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (2)
- Current odds
- 1.27
- Odds at prediction
- 1.3
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 71%
- Market estimate
- 73%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.3
- Potential win
- 30 $
- Status
- pending
