Paderborn 07 vs VfB Stuttgart Match Prediction | DFB-Pokal
Paderborn 07
VfB StuttgartPaderborn 07 host VfB Stuttgart at the Home Deluxe Arena in the second round of the DFB Pokal. The clubs met at this stadium earlier in October, when Stuttgart won without conceding. The cup tie comes after Paderborn’s home victory over Hamburger and Stuttgart’s defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach, giving the visitors a clear need to restore control.
Paderborn’s recent stability and home threat
Form, tactical profile and available players
Paderborn have won three of their last five matches, drawing once and losing once, with ten goals scored and five conceded. They scored in four games and kept two clean sheets. Their recent home run includes victories over Hoffenheim and Hamburger, plus a goalless attacking display against Stuttgart. Away from home, they drew at Werder Bremen and beat D.C. United, scoring three times across those matches.
Paderborn’s main strengths are their home attack, including three goals against Hoffenheim, and their ability to protect a lead: the wins over D.C. United and Hamburger ended with clean sheets. Stuttgart’s defensive structure has exposed a clear weakness. Paderborn failed to score in the recent head-to-head and conceded twice. Their only cup game this season ended with four goals scored and two conceded, leaving a limited sample.
- Last five matches: three wins, one draw and one defeat.
- Goals in that sequence: ten scored, five conceded.
- Scored in four of the last five; clean sheets in two.
- Oliver Batista Meier, Marcel Hoffmeier, Nyamiekyie Avortwi-Grant, Timur Gayret and Sebastian Klaas are unavailable through injury.
Paderborn’s confirmed starting eleven, formation and designated key player have not been specified. The five absences reduce rotation options for a knockout match against a Bundesliga-level opponent.
- Hamburgerhome1:0
- Werder Bremenaway2:2
- VfB Stuttgarthome0:2
- D.C. Unitedaway1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome3:1
Stuttgart’s quality and response after setbacks
Results, defensive record and squad news
Stuttgart’s last five matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats. They scored eight goals and conceded five, finding the net in four games. Their best results came away from home: a two-goal win at Paderborn and a three-goal victory at Slovan Bratislava. The two latest matches were less convincing: a home draw against Atletico Madrid followed by a two-three loss to Monchengladbach.
Stuttgart’s cup record is stronger than their recent overall sequence: four wins and one defeat in five matches, with ten goals scored and four conceded. They kept three clean sheets in the competition. Their away cup record is two wins and one defeat, with seven goals scored and three conceded, although the individual scores are unavailable.
Sebastian Hoeness has called for a reaction after the Monchengladbach defeat and demanded a higher performance level. Stuttgart are targeting qualification for the next round. Fabian Bredlow is set to start in goal, with Dennis Seimen on the bench. Nicolas Nartey and Josha Vagnoman are out with muscle injuries, while Thiago Tomas, Justin Diehl and Dan-Axel Zagadou have returned from injury.
- Last five matches: two wins, one draw and two defeats.
- Goals in that sequence: eight scored, five conceded.
- Scored in four of the last five and kept two clean sheets.
- Cup record: four wins, one defeat, ten goals for and four against.
The returning players widen Hoeness’s selection options. The confirmed goalkeeper and two absences point to adjustments rather than a complete reshaping of the starting lineup.
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome2:3
- Atletico Madridhome1:1
- Hamburgeraway0:1
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
- Paderborn 07away2:0
Head-to-head record favours the visitors
There have been two official meetings in the last five years, both won by Stuttgart. Paderborn scored once in total and conceded four, with both Stuttgart victories coming at the Home Deluxe Arena. The latest meeting, played earlier this month, finished with a two-goal Stuttgart win and no Paderborn response; the previous cup meeting at the same venue also ended in a Stuttgart victory.
The direct record is more decisive than Paderborn’s recent home form. Stuttgart have repeatedly limited the hosts’ scoring, while Paderborn have yet to score against this opponent at home.
- 10.10.2026Paderborn 070:2VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 31.01.2023Paderborn 071:2VfB StuttgartGermany DFB Pokal
- 23.05.2015Paderborn 071:2VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 20.12.2014VfB Stuttgart0:0Paderborn 07Germany. Bundesliga
- 31.10.2007VfB Stuttgart3:2Paderborn 07Germany DFB Pokal
Team messages point to a serious Stuttgart approach
Hoeness has framed the match as an opportunity to move on from the league defeat rather than a routine rotation exercise. His message focuses on greater intensity and a higher performance level, while the club’s objective is qualification for the next round. The cup record and the return of three previously injured players support that approach.
Paderborn have five injured players unavailable, with no further confirmed squad statement, tactical plan or expert opinion. The weather should not materially disrupt the match: the forecast is mild and dry, with light wind.
Our pick: Stuttgart to score twice
Our bet is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.41. Stuttgart scored twice on each of their last two visits to Paderborn, including the 2:0 league win on 10 October. That recent result at the same ground is the clearest reference for this scoring target: the visitors have already reached it against this opponent this month.
Paderborn are without five injured players, reducing their options for changes during the cup tie. Stuttgart welcome back Tiago Tomas and Justin Diehl, widening their attacking choices, although their minutes are not confirmed. The visitors also scored twice in their latest defeat, so backing their goals avoids relying on a defence that conceded three in that game. A predicted score is 1:2; the main risk is Stuttgart's uneven output, with fewer than two goals in two of their last three matches.
Final verdict
Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) 1.41 targets Stuttgart's scoring rather than the match result. The recent success at this venue and returning attacking options support the pick, but their inconsistent finishing keeps confidence measured.
FAQ
When does Paderborn 07 — VfB Stuttgart kick off?
The match starts on 28.10.2026 at 13:00 (New York), Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn).
What is the prediction for Paderborn 07 — VfB Stuttgart?
Our pick is Individual Total 2 Over (1.5) at 1.41.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Paderborn 07 win — 18%, draw — 22%, VfB Stuttgart win — 60%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Hamburgerhome1:0
- Werder Bremenaway2:2
- VfB Stuttgarthome0:2
- D.C. Unitedaway1:0
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome3:1
- Borussia Monchengladbachhome2:3
- Atletico Madridhome1:1
- Hamburgeraway0:1
- Slovan Bratislavaaway3:0
- Paderborn 07away2:0
Head-to-head
- 10.10.2026Paderborn 070:2VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 31.01.2023Paderborn 071:2VfB StuttgartGermany DFB Pokal
- 23.05.2015Paderborn 071:2VfB StuttgartGermany. Bundesliga
- 20.12.2014VfB Stuttgart0:0Paderborn 07Germany. Bundesliga
- 31.10.2007VfB Stuttgart3:2Paderborn 07Germany DFB Pokal
About the match
- 28 October · 13:00 New York
- Venue: Home Deluxe Arena (Paderborn), Paderborn
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 1.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 00:10
Market view and line direction
The market makes Stuttgart the clear favourite, assigning the away win a 61.9% probability. Paderborn’s home win is assessed at 17.1%, while the draw stands at 21%. The pricing indicates a substantial class gap, with no meaningful movement on any main line during the last twenty-four hours.
The goal markets are more balanced. Under 3.5 goals carries a 56.1% market probability against 43.9% for Over 3.5, while BTTS Yes is rated at 60.1%. Stuttgart’s cup clean sheets and two recent victories over Paderborn without conceding point towards visitor control, while Paderborn have scored in four of their last five. The market therefore favours Stuttgart in the result but leaves room for a Paderborn goal. The absence of line movement indicates stable pricing over the last twenty-four hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 2 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.41
- Odds at prediction
- 1.39
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 66%
- Market estimate
- 66%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.39
- Potential win
- 39 $
- Status
- pending