Germany DFB Pokal: Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg Match Prediction
Freiburg
VfL WolfsburgFreiburg host VfL Wolfsburg at Volksparkstadion in Hamburg in the second round of the DFB Pokal, with a place in the next round at stake. Freiburg have lost three straight matches; Wolfsburg are unbeaten for roughly six weeks.
Freiburg: attacking output against a fragile defensive trend
Recent form and match profile
Freiburg’s last five matches brought two wins and three defeats. They scored in four and conceded in all five. Home wins over Schalke and Jablonec were followed by defeats against Leverkusen, Monaco and Bayern Munich, most recently a 1:3 home loss to Bayern.
Their tournament record is three wins, one draw and two defeats, with 14 goals for and 10 against. Both teams scored in five of six matches, and Freiburg kept no clean sheet. Attacking production has not offset the defensive losses.
Squad availability and tactical balance
Yannik Engelhardt is out with a thigh injury, Bruno Ogbus has a muscular problem, and Berkay Yılmaz will miss the match after dental surgery. Florent Muslija is unavailable through a suspension connected with UEFA Conference League participation. These absences reduce rotation options.
- Bayern Munichhome1:3
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
Wolfsburg: unbeaten momentum with an exposed back line
Results, goals and away tendencies
Wolfsburg’s last five matches produced three wins and two draws. Both teams scored in every game, including a 4:4 away draw at Nürnberg and the latest result, a 1:1 draw at Bochum.
Their DFB Pokal record, all away from home, is two wins and one draw from three matches, with 11 goals scored and 9 conceded. Both teams scored in all three fixtures, leaving Wolfsburg without a clean sheet. Their scoring output has sustained results despite repeated defensive concessions.
Coaching change and absences
Dieter Hecking was appointed head coach on October 27 after Paul Simonis was dismissed. The change comes one day before the cup tie.
Matthias Svanberg is out, weakening the holding midfield area. Rogério, Fraser Hornby, Aster Vranckx, Trevor Benedict and Farrell Henzel are also unavailable, while Vinicius Souza is doubtful.
- VfL Bochumaway1:1
- 1. Heidenheimhome3:1
- Nurnbergaway4:4
- Havelsehome4:1
- Darmstadt 98home5:1
Head-to-head record favors Freiburg
Across nine official meetings in the last five years, Freiburg have won six, drawn one and lost two. The teams drew 1:1 in May. Freiburg won the previous two meetings, including a 4:3 away success and a 1:0 victory.
- 03.05.2026Freiburg1:1VfL WolfsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 20.12.2025VfL Wolfsburg3:4FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 26.04.2025VfL Wolfsburg0:1FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 13.12.2024Freiburg3:2VfL WolfsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 27.04.2024Freiburg1:2VfL WolfsburgGermany. Bundesliga
Latest team news and motivation
Wolfsburg have more absentees, affecting midfield, attack and defensive rotation. Neither side has a confirmed full starting lineup, and Freiburg’s formation remains unconfirmed.
Freiburg to find two goals
Freiburg face Wolfsburg in Hamburg for a DFB Pokal third-round place. Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.38. Freiburg scored twice against Schalke and three times against Jablonec: their attack has recently cleared this threshold, despite the subsequent downturn in results. A team total avoids relying on their defence to secure victory.
Wolfsburg conceded more than once in only one of their last five games, so the absence of clean sheets alone is not enough. The stronger argument is weakened protection: according to media reports, Mattias Svanberg, Aster Vranckx and Rogério are out, while Vinícius Souza is doubtful. That reduces midfield cover and defensive options. Freiburg also scored three and four goals in two of the last four official meetings, although those results are supporting evidence rather than a guarantee. Confirmed starting lineups are unavailable. A plausible score is 2:1.
The betting verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) 1.38 targets Wolfsburg’s depleted defensive structure without requiring a Freiburg win. The main risk is the hosts’ recent slowdown.
FAQ
When does Freiburg — VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
The match starts on 28.10.2026 at 13:00 (New York), Volksparkstadion (Hamburg).
What is the prediction for Freiburg — VfL Wolfsburg?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.38.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Freiburg win — 60%, draw — 21%, VfL Wolfsburg win — 19%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Bayern Munichhome1:3
- AS Monacoaway0:3
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway1:2
- Jablonechome3:2
- Schalke 04home2:1
- VfL Bochumaway1:1
- 1. Heidenheimhome3:1
- Nurnbergaway4:4
- Havelsehome4:1
- Darmstadt 98home5:1
Head-to-head
- 03.05.2026Freiburg1:1VfL WolfsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 20.12.2025VfL Wolfsburg3:4FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 26.04.2025VfL Wolfsburg0:1FreiburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 13.12.2024Freiburg3:2VfL WolfsburgGermany. Bundesliga
- 27.04.2024Freiburg1:2VfL WolfsburgGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 28 October · 13:00 New York
- Venue: Volksparkstadion (Hamburg), Gamburg
- Weather: 12° · precip. 0% · wind 1.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 28.10 04:20
Market view and price movement
The market makes Freiburg the clear favorite, assigning a 61.1% probability to a home win, compared with 21% for a draw and 18% for an away win. Over the last day, home-win odds have drifted while draw and away-win odds have shortened.
The Over/Under market is close to balanced around the higher-total threshold: Under is assessed at 52.5% and Over at 47.5%, with Over odds shortening. BTTS (both teams to score) has a stronger market expectation at 63.4%, with its odds also shortening.
BTTS is the preferred bet: both attacks have scored regularly, while neither defense has kept a clean sheet in its recent run or tournament fixtures.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 67%
- Market estimate
- 67%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.38
- Potential win
- 38 $
- Status
- pending
