Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: Germany DFB Pokal Match Prediction
Borussia Dortmund
Werder BremenBorussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen at Signal Iduna Park on 27 October in the second round of the DFB Pokal. Both played on 24 October, leaving three days to prepare for a place in the next round. Dortmund enter after successive wins; Bremen have scored at least twice in each of their last three matches.
Dortmund: better results, modest scoring
Recent form and home returns
Dortmund have two wins, two draws and one defeat in five matches, scoring five goals and conceding four. Their two home games brought a draw with Bremen and a win over Eintracht Frankfurt; three away fixtures produced one win, one draw and one defeat. They opened their cup campaign with five goals and a clean sheet.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- Two clean sheets in five games have limited the need for heavy scoring.
- Two scoreless outings expose uneven attacking production.
Availability and rotation
Giannis Konstantelias, Konstantinos Karetsas, Justin Lerma and Emre Can are injured; Ramy Bensebaini is suspended. Niko Kovac intends to rotate but says his options are limited. No further key players were lost against Frankfurt. A probable starting XI and formation have not been specified.
- Eintracht Frankfurthome1:0
- Sabah Bakuaway2:1
- Union Berlinaway0:0
- Bodo-Glimtaway0:1
- Werder Bremenhome2:2
Bremen: goals at both ends
Results require a competitive context
Bremen also have two wins, two draws and one defeat across their latest five fixtures, with 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. That includes a 7–0 friendly defeat at Twente. The four league games produced 10 goals for and eight against, with Bremen scoring in every one. Their opening cup outing brought three goals and none conceded away from home.
Attacking output versus defensive leakage
- Three goals at Mainz followed two against Paderborn.
- Bremen conceded exactly two goals in each of four recent league fixtures.
- Their two recent league away games yielded four points and five goals.
Absences and possible changes
Skelly Alvero, Keke Topp, Jens Stage, Justin Njinmah, Moussa Ndiaye, Felix Agu, Salim Musah and Niklas Stark are injured. Daniel Thioune has suggested fatigue could keep Niclas Füllkrug out after his two penalties against Mainz. Alex Schlager is expected to replace Karl Hein in goal; the remaining starting places and formation are unspecified.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away3:2
- Paderborn 07home2:2
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:2
- Twenteaway0:7
- Augsburghome3:2
Past meetings favour Dortmund, without a uniform goal pattern
Dortmund have won five of nine official meetings over five years, with three draws and one defeat. Three of eight encounters featured BTTS (both teams to score). The latest meeting at this ground on 9 October ended 2–2.
- 09.10.2026Borussia Dortmund2:2Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 16.05.2026Werder Bremen0:2Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
- 13.01.2026Borussia Dortmund3:0Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 25.01.2025Borussia Dortmund2:2Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 31.08.2024Werder Bremen0:0Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
Pre-match assessments differ on Dortmund's attack
Dortmund have faced criticism for turning possession into too few goals, alongside praise for their finishing and squad depth. Kovac's limited rotation options concern current availability. Bremen's six-match unbeaten competitive run excludes the friendly defeat. League positions and comparative strength assessments are unspecified.
Our scoring pick
Our bet is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.37. Dortmund scored at least twice in six of their last eight meetings with Bremen. The visitors have conceded two or more in all five of their latest matches; even excluding the friendly defeat at Twente, none of the four league opponents finished below that threshold.
Bremen's absences include defenders Niklas Stark and Felix Agu, while Alexander Schlager is expected to replace Karl Hein in goal, according to media reports. That makes defensive selection another concern, although a goalkeeper change alone does not imply more goals. Dortmund's own output warrants caution: they scored fewer than twice in three of their last five games. This is therefore a bet on Bremen's repeated concessions rather than a claim that the hosts are scoring freely. A possible score is 2–1.
Final verdict
Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.37 targets Dortmund's scoring without requiring them to win or keep a clean sheet. Bremen's defensive record makes two home goals the preferred angle, despite the hosts' uneven attacking returns.
FAQ
When does Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen kick off?
The match starts on 27.10.2026 at 15:45 (New York), Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund).
What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund — Werder Bremen?
Our pick is Individual Total 1 Over (1.5) at 1.37.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Borussia Dortmund win — 68%, draw — 19%, Werder Bremen win — 13%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Eintracht Frankfurthome1:0
- Sabah Bakuaway2:1
- Union Berlinaway0:0
- Bodo-Glimtaway0:1
- Werder Bremenhome2:2
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away3:2
- Paderborn 07home2:2
- Borussia Dortmundaway2:2
- Twenteaway0:7
- Augsburghome3:2
Head-to-head
- 09.10.2026Borussia Dortmund2:2Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 16.05.2026Werder Bremen0:2Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
- 13.01.2026Borussia Dortmund3:0Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 25.01.2025Borussia Dortmund2:2Werder BremenGermany. Bundesliga
- 31.08.2024Werder Bremen0:0Borussia DortmundGermany. Bundesliga
About the match
- 27 October · 15:45 New York
- Venue: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund), Dortmund
- Weather: 15° · precip. 17% · wind 5.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 27.10 04:10
A clear home favourite, with closer goal markets
The 1X2 market assigns Dortmund a 69.4% chance of a home win, against 18.3% for a draw and 12.3% for a Bremen away win. These probabilities concern the match result, not progression through the tie. No listed market has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Under 3.5 goals and BTTS each carry a 55.8% market probability: the goal markets allow for both teams scoring without a high total.
Our prediction
- Market
- Individual Total 1 Over (1.5)
- Current odds
- 1.37
- Odds at prediction
- 1.36
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 69%
- Market estimate
- 68%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.36
- Potential win
- 36 $
- Status
- pending
