Argentina vs Uruguay Prediction: Friendly Match Analysis
Argentina
UruguayMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.49 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.32 lost
Match result
Argentina 1:2 Uruguay (0:0, 1:2)
In the national teams friendly match between Argentina and Uruguay, the final score was 1:2. The first period ended 0:0, while the second period finished 1:2. Our prediction for this game was Total Over (2), and the bet won as three goals were scored in total.
Our prediction: Total Over (2) at 1.57 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.49 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4.5) at 1.32 — the bet lost.
Argentina host Uruguay at the Monumental in Buenos Aires on 13 November, with kick-off at 18:00 America/New_York. Conditions should be dry at 26°C, with wind at 2.7 m/s.
Argentina: strong home returns, changes behind them
Recent results and home advantage
Argentina have won four of their last five matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding two. The sequence includes a 2:1 win over England and a 0:1 loss to Spain, followed by home victories against Bolivia, Burkina Faso and Benin. Those three friendlies produced a combined 14:0 score, although Uruguay represent a different defensive challenge.
Attacking output and defensive caveats
- Seven home friendlies in 2026 have brought seven wins and a 26:1 goal difference.
- Six of those matches went Over 2.5 goals; six also ended with an Argentina clean sheet.
- BTTS occurred only once: high totals have largely depended on Argentina's own scoring.
Seven fixtures are a small sample, particularly when assessing whether such a low concession rate can survive stronger opposition.
Selection and the younger generation
Emiliano Martinez is unavailable while recovering from a fractured jaw. Nicolas Otamendi has left international football, while Rodrigo De Paul and Giovani Lo Celso are outside the squad. Lionel Scaloni's stated intention to give younger players opportunities adds selection changes to those absences.
- Beninhome3:0
- Burkina Fasohome7:0
- Boliviahome4:0
- Spainaway0:1
- Englandaway2:1
Uruguay: goals returning, clean sheets scarce
Away recovery after Japan defeat
Uruguay's last five matches yielded two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 13 goals scored and eight conceded. Their latest away sequence moved from a 1:3 loss in Japan to victories over South Korea, 4:1, and India, 6:1. The attacking rebound is clear, but those wins do not erase the defensive pattern.
Where the balance remains uneven
- Uruguay conceded in all five of their most recent matches across competitions.
- Their five away friendlies this year produced two wins, two draws and one defeat, with 12 goals scored and six allowed.
- BTTS landed in four of those friendlies, Over 2.5 in three, with just one clean sheet.
Squad depth and availability
Uruguay have announced a 28-player squad for November. Rodrigo Zalazar and Maximiliano Araujo each have one goal in the supplied friendly player returns, while Nahitan Nandez has one assist; these limited appearances cannot establish a settled attacking hierarchy.
- Indiaaway6:1
- South Koreaaway4:1
- Japanaway1:3
- Spainhome0:1
- Cape Verdehome2:2
Recent meetings favour the visiting defence
The two competitive meetings in the past five years were split evenly. Uruguay won 2:0 in Argentina in November 2023; Argentina answered with a 1:0 away victory in March 2025. Both stayed Under 2.5 goals and neither featured BTTS. Three goals across two games contrast with the teams' recent friendly scoring, though the sample is narrow.
- 21.03.2025Uruguay0:1ArgentinaWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 17.11.2023Argentina0:2UruguayWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 13.11.2021Uruguay0:1ArgentinaWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 11.10.2021Argentina3:0UruguayWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 19.06.2021Argentina1:0UruguayCopa America
Coaching continuity meets a new start
Scaloni has extended his contract through 2030 and says his motivation remains strong. Uruguay's latest victories were their first under Diego Forlan, making this a more demanding check on that early progress.
Line-ups
Argentina
Starting XI: 2. Leonardo Balerdi Rossa, 4. Gonzalo Montiel, 6. Lisandro Martinez, 8. Enzo Fernandez, 9. Julian Alvarez, 11. Thiago Almada, 12. Geronimo Rulli, 14. Exequiel Palacios, 18. Nicolas Paz Martinez, 20. Alexis Mac Allister, 25. Facundo Medina
Substitutes: 1. Juan Musso, 3. Nicolas Tagliafico, 5. Ezequiel Fernandez, 7. Giuliano Simeone, 16. Maximo Perrone, 17. Gianluca Prestianni, 19. Agustin Giay, 21. Jose Manuel Lopez, 23. Damian Emiliano Martinez, 24. Valentin Barco, 26. Mariano Troilo, 28. Matias Soule, 29. Santiago Castro, 30. Franco Mastantuono, 33. Roman Vega
Coach: Lionel Scaloni
Uruguay
Starting XI: 4. Ronald Araujo, 6. Rodrigo Bentancur, 9. Darwin Gabriel Nunez Ribeiro, 10. Giorgian Daniel De Arrascaeta, 13. Guillermo Varela, 14. Lucas Torreira, 16. Mathias Olivera, 19. Agustin Canobbio, 20. Maximiliano Javier Araujo Vilches, 22. Joaquin Piquerez, 23. Cristopher Fiermarin
Substitutes: 1. Santiago Andres Mele Castanero, 2. Jose Gimenez, 3. Sebastian Caceres, 5. Facundo Bernal Cruz, 7. Diego Nicolas De La Cruz Arcosa, 8. Federico Valverde, 11. Facundo Pellistri, 12. Ignacio De Arruabarrena, 15. Santiago Mourino, 17. Rodrigo Zalazar, 18. Rodrigo Aguirre, 21. Federico Vinas, 24. Juan Martin Rodriguez Camejo, 25. Juan Magole Sanabria, 26. Martin Satriano
Coach: Diego Forlan
Our Pick
Our selection is Total Over (2) at 1.57. Argentina’s home profile supplies the main argument: Argentina played seven tournament matches at home and scored 26 goals, while the last three home fixtures ended 4:0, 7:0 and 3:0. Their last five matches brought 16 goals, with four victories and only one defeat.
Uruguay add a second route to the required total. They scored in four of their last five games and have conceded in all five, allowing eight goals across that run. Their recent away results include a 4:1 win in South Korea and a 6:1 win in India, but also a 1:3 defeat in Japan. Argentina’s defensive structure may be less secure without Emiliano Martinez, Nicolas Otamendi, Rodrigo De Paul and Giovani Lo Celso; Martinez is recovering from a jaw fracture, while the other three are unavailable, according to media reports. The likely match script is therefore more open than Argentina’s 6 clean sheets in 7 tournament games suggest. Expected score: 2:1.
Conclusion
Total Over (2) is supported by Argentina’s 3.71 goals per tournament match at home and Uruguay’s consistent scoring alongside five straight games conceding. Two goals would return the stake, while a 2:1 or higher-scoring result delivers the win.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Beninhome3:0
- Burkina Fasohome7:0
- Boliviahome4:0
- Spainaway0:1
- Englandaway2:1
- Indiaaway6:1
- South Koreaaway4:1
- Japanaway1:3
- Spainhome0:1
- Cape Verdehome2:2
Head-to-head
- 21.03.2025Uruguay0:1ArgentinaWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 17.11.2023Argentina0:2UruguayWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 13.11.2021Uruguay0:1ArgentinaWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 11.10.2021Argentina3:0UruguayWorld Cup Qualification. South America
- 19.06.2021Argentina1:0UruguayCopa America
About the match
- 13 November · 18:00 New York
- Venue: Monumental (Buenos Aires), Buenos-Ayres
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market separates the result from the goal count
Argentina are the 1X2 favourites at a margin-free market probability of 59.9%, against 23.9% for the draw and 16.2% for Uruguay. Goal markets are more balanced: Under 2.5 carries 53.7%, while BTTS No stands at 54.4%. That is a modest lean towards restraint rather than an expectation of another high-scoring friendly. None of the supplied lines has moved noticeably over the past 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- Total Over (2)
- Odds
- 1.57
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 61%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.57
- Potential win
- 57 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.57
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +57 $
