Viktoria Plzen vs Levski Sofia: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
Viktoria Plzen
Levski SofiaMore picks
- 2nd half: Total Over (1) 1.35 won
- Yellow cards: Total Under (4.5) 1.42 won
Match result
Viktoria Plzen 1:2 Levski Sofia (0:1, 1:1)
In the UEFA Europa League match, Levski Sofia defeated Viktoria Plzen with a final score of 1:2. The home side trailed 0:1 after the first half and played to a 1:1 draw in the second half. Since our prediction for this fixture was a home win (W1), the bet lost.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.82 — the bet lost.
Our prediction: Half 2: Total Over (1) at 1.35 — the bet won.
Our prediction: Yellow Cards: Total Under (4.5) at 1.42 — the bet won.
Viktoria Plzen host Levski Sofia at Doosan Arena in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The hosts have no points after two matches; Levski have one. Viktoria need their first points to move away from the bottom of the standings.
Viktoria Plzen: home pressure and defensive risk
Recent form and home-away split
Viktoria have won two and lost three of their last five matches, scoring 8 goals and conceding 9. They scored in four games and conceded in four. At home, a 0:3 defeat to Royale Union Saint-Gilloise was followed by a 3:0 win over Mlada Boleslav. Away, they lost to Slavia Prague and Ferencvarosi before winning 3:2 at Jablonec.
Strengths, weaknesses and European position
Viktoria conceded at least two goals in four of those five fixtures, keeping just one clean sheet. Their attacking output has not compensated for repeated defensive errors.
Two Europa League defeats, with 1 goal scored and 5 conceded, leave them 31st with 0 points.
Squad information
Denis Visinsky leads the club’s Europa League scoring with 1 goal in 1 appearance.
- Jablonecaway3:2
- Ferencvarosiaway1:2
- Mlada Boleslavhome3:0
- Slavia Pragueaway1:2
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloisehome0:3
Levski Sofia: compact structure and steadier results
Recent form on the road
Levski’s last five matches, all away, brought two wins, two draws and one defeat, with 5 goals scored and 2 conceded. They drew 0:0 at Botev Vratsa, lost 0:1 at FC Salzburg, beat Cherno More Varna and Spartak Pleven 2:0, and drew 1:1 at N.E.C. in the Europa League.
What works and where the ceiling is lower
Levski scored in three of those five games. Their two clean-sheet wins came by two-goal margins, while four of the five away fixtures ended without defeat. Their compact structure limits opponents’ chances, but their scoring frequency leaves little margin for error if they concede first.
They are 24th in the league-phase table, one point ahead of Viktoria, with 1 point, 1 goal scored and 2 conceded after two rounds.
Available squad information
Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno has 1 tournament goal in 1 match, while Svetoslav Vutsov has 1 assist in 1 match.
Head-to-head record
- Spartak Plevenaway2:0
- N.E.C.away1:1
- Cherno More Varnaaway2:0
- FC Salzburgaway0:1
- Botev Vratsaaway0:0
Head-to-head
- 10.02.2014Levski Sofia0:3Viktoria PlzenClub Friendlies
- 30.01.2013Levski Sofia3:3Viktoria PlzenClub Friendlies
- 15.02.2011Levski Sofia1:2Viktoria PlzenClub Friendlies
Pre-match news and stated approaches
Viktoria plan to control possession, combine quickly and attack through the flanks, while reducing avoidable defensive mistakes. They sit six points behind the table leader and regard this home fixture as critical to their tournament ambitions.
Levski arrive after advancing in the Bulgarian Cup. Their approach centres on maintaining a compact structure and absorbing pressure.
Line-ups
Viktoria Plzen
Starting XI: 2. Tobias Paliscak, 3. Denis Vavro, 6. Lukas Cerv, 9. Denis Visinsky, 17. Patrik Hrosovsky, 18. Tomas Ladra, 19. Cheick Souare, 25. Christophe Kabongo, 40. Sampson Dweh, 44. Florian Wiegele, 99. Amar Memic
Substitutes: 1. Dominik Tapaj, 5. Karel Spacil, 7. Salim Fago Lawal, 10. Mohamed Toure, 11. Matej Vydra, 12. Alexandr Sojka, 14. Merchas Doski, 20. Jiri Panos, 23. Baboucarr Faal, 29. Adam Gabriel, 36. Stefan Pirgic, 98. Filip Prebsl
Coach: Radoslav Kovác
Levski Sofia
Starting XI: 3. Maicon, 4. Christian Makoun, 7. Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno, 8. Marko Grujic, 17. Everton Bala, 19. El Mehdi Moubarik, 21. Aldair, 22. Mazire Soula, 35. Sergio Araujo, 50. Kristiyan Dimitrov, 92. Svetoslav Vutsov
Substitutes: 1. Ognyan Vladimirov, 2. Hevertton Santos, 9. Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez, 11. Armstrong Okoflex, 20. Alejandro Centelles, 27. David Kusso, 28. Steven Stoyanchov, 31. Nikola Serafimov, 47. Akram Bouras, 78. Martin Lukov
Coach: Julio Velazquez Santiago
Our Prediction
Our pick is W1 1.82. Viktoria Plzen must turn home advantage into points after losing both opening Europa League matches and sitting on zero points. The urgency is clear: another failure would increase the gap to the current leader after only three rounds. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches, including three goals in each of their two most recent wins, so their attacking level is sufficient to test Levski’s compact defensive structure.
Levski arrive with the steadier recent record, but their European away output has been restrained: one goal scored in two tournament trips, with a 0:1 defeat at Salzburg and a 1:1 draw at N.E.C. Viktoria’s plan to control possession, combine quickly and use the flanks should create more pressure at Doosan Arena than Levski usually face on the road. The Bulgarian side can resist for periods, yet the hosts have the stronger incentive and a higher attacking ceiling. Expected score: Viktoria Plzen 2:1 Levski Sofia.
Conclusion
W1 1.82 is the selection. Viktoria Plzen’s home setting, goals in four of their last five matches and urgent need to recover in the league phase outweigh Levski’s recent defensive discipline away from home.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Jablonecaway3:2
- Ferencvarosiaway1:2
- Mlada Boleslavhome3:0
- Slavia Pragueaway1:2
- Royale Union Saint-Gilloisehome0:3
- Spartak Plevenaway2:0
- N.E.C.away1:1
- Cherno More Varnaaway2:0
- FC Salzburgaway0:1
- Botev Vratsaaway0:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | AC Sparta Prague | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 | Viktoria Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Olympique de Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:6 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 10.02.2014Levski Sofia0:3Viktoria PlzenClub Friendlies
- 30.01.2013Levski Sofia3:3Viktoria PlzenClub Friendlies
- 15.02.2011Levski Sofia1:2Viktoria PlzenClub Friendlies
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Doosan Arena (Plzen), Plʹzenʹ
Odds
odds before kick-off
How the market evaluates the matchup
The estimated 1X2 probabilities are 53.2% for a home win, 24.3% for a draw and 22.5% for an away win. Viktoria are favourites, but their defensive record limits confidence in that assessment. The 1X2 line has shown no notable movement over the last day.
Over 2.5 goals has a 54.7% probability against 45.3% for Under 2.5; BTTS Yes stands at 56%, compared with 44% for BTTS No. The unchanged goals lines show a slight preference for scoring despite Levski’s tighter defensive record.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.82
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 53%
- Market estimate
- 56%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.82
- Potential win
- 82 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.73
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
