TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs Lyon forecast in UEFA Europa League
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
LyonTSG 1899 Hoffenheim host Lyon at the PreZero Arena in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The German side are still without a point after two matches and need a result to repair their position, while Lyon arrive with maximum points and a place among the leading teams in the table.
Hoffenheim: a fragile defence after a late recovery
Recent form and home-away split
Hoffenheim have won only one of their last five matches, losing the other four. They scored seven goals and conceded twelve across that sequence, finding the net in four matches but failing to keep a clean sheet in all five. Their latest result was a valuable away win over Borussia Monchengladbach, but the preceding home defeats against Hamburger and Besiktas both ended with three goals conceded. In Europa League play, they lost away to OFI Crete and at home to Besiktas, scoring twice and conceding five.
Strengths, weaknesses and squad situation
- They have scored in four of their last five matches, including twice in each of their last three fixtures.
- The defensive record is the central problem: eleven goals conceded in five games and no clean sheet this season in either the Bundesliga or Europa League.
- The latest away victory ended a four-match losing run and offers an attacking reference, but it did not remove the defensive issue.
- Fisnik Asllani and Koki Machida have scored once each in the competition, while Vladimir Coufal has one assist.
Wimmer, de Kat and Haidari will miss the match through injury. The available facts do not specify a confirmed starting eleven or a definite formation. Christian Ilzer’s team have a strong incentive to attack because they sit thirtieth in the league-phase table with no points, while their Bundesliga position also recently required a recovery effort.
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway2:1
- Besiktashome2:3
- Hamburgerhome2:3
- Paderborn 07away1:3
- OFI Creteaway0:2
Lyon: stronger results and a more stable tournament position
Recent form and attacking output
Lyon have won four of their last five matches, with the only defeat coming away to Lens. They scored twelve goals and conceded six in that run, scoring in every game. Their last two matches were victories over Crystal Palace and Nice, both at home, while their Europa League campaign began with an away win at Anderlecht before the home success against Crystal Palace. Lyon have scored five and conceded three in the tournament.
Game profile and personnel
Lyon’s recent results show a productive attack but not complete control: they conceded in four of their last five matches, including both European fixtures. Ernest Nuamah, Corentin Tolisso and Pavel Sulc have each scored once in the competition. Lois Openda, Mohamed Ouédraogo and Nicolas Tagliafico will not play. No confirmed lineup or tactical shape is provided. Paulo Fonseca’s side lead the French championship on tiebreakers and have six points from two Europa League matches, giving them a much stronger starting position than the hosts.
Table position and comparative strength
Lyon are eighth in the league phase with six points, five goals scored and three conceded. Hoffenheim are thirtieth with zero points, two goals scored and five conceded. The table and recent results show the difference between the teams: Lyon have won four of five, while Hoffenheim have lost four of five.
- Nicehome2:1
- Crystal Palacehome3:2
- RC Lensaway1:2
- Stade Rennaishome4:0
- Anderlechtaway2:1
Previous meeting points to an open contest
There has been one official meeting between these teams in the last five years. It ended 2:2 at Hoffenheim in November 2024, so neither side has a win in this pairing during that period. The match produced four goals and both teams scored, matching the current profile of two attacks that have regularly found the net but defences that have allowed chances.
- 07.11.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2:2LyonUEFA Europa League - League stage
- 07.11.2018Lyon2:2TSG 1899 HoffenheimChampions League (Group Stage)
- 23.10.2018TSG 1899 Hoffenheim3:3LyonChampions League (Group Stage)
Team news and motivation before kickoff
Hoffenheim’s recent picture combines the end of a four-match losing sequence with the need to collect points in Europe and continuing defensive lapses. Their home defeat by Besiktas showed that the problem is not limited to away matches. The three listed absences reduce the options available to Ilzer, although their positions and a replacement plan are not specified.
Lyon have won twice in the last week, remain among the French leaders and have taken the maximum available points in Europe. The absences of Openda, Ouédraogo and Tagliafico remove three squad options, but no confirmed matchday lineup is available.
Our Prediction
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes за 1.44. Hoffenheim have scored in four of their last five matches, yet conceded in all five, including 3 goals in each of their two recent home defeats. Lyon are more reliable in attack, finding the net in all five latest games, while allowing goals in four of them. That combination points to chances at both ends rather than a controlled match.
The European context should keep the tempo high. Hoffenheim have no points after two rounds and must attack at home, while Lyon have taken maximum points and scored 5 goals in the competition. The only previous meeting ended 2:2 at this stadium, and the current defensive records support another exchange of goals. Hoffenheim will be without Wimmer, de Kat and Haidari; Lyon are missing Openda, Ouédraogo and Tagliafico, but neither list removes the main attacking evidence. The likely score is 1:2.
Conclusion
Both Teams To Score - Yes за 1.44 is the selection. Hoffenheim’s consistent defensive concessions and Lyon’s five-match scoring run make goals from both sides the clearest outcome.
FAQ
When does TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Lyon kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), PreZero Arena (Sinsheim).
What is the prediction for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Lyon?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.44.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win — 49%, draw — 24%, Lyon win — 27%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Borussia Monchengladbachaway2:1
- Besiktashome2:3
- Hamburgerhome2:3
- Paderborn 07away1:3
- OFI Creteaway0:2
- Nicehome2:1
- Crystal Palacehome3:2
- RC Lensaway1:2
- Stade Rennaishome4:0
- Anderlechtaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ferencvarosi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 30 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 0 |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 07.11.2024TSG 1899 Hoffenheim2:2LyonUEFA Europa League - League stage
- 07.11.2018Lyon2:2TSG 1899 HoffenheimChampions League (Group Stage)
- 23.10.2018TSG 1899 Hoffenheim3:3LyonChampions League (Group Stage)
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim), Zinskhaym
- Weather: 11° · precip. 8% · wind 0.6 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 20:10
Market view and goal expectations
The market makes Hoffenheim the narrow home favourite, assigning the hosts a 46.8% win probability against 28.9% for Lyon, with the draw at 24.4%. Confidence is limited rather than dominant, and all three 1X2 lines have remained stable over the last twenty-four hours. That balance reflects Hoffenheim’s home advantage against Lyon’s markedly better form and European record.
The goal market gives Over 3.5 a 42.1% probability and Under 3.5 a 57.9% probability. BTTS Yes is priced by the market at a 64.6% probability, while BTTS No stands at 35.5%. The combination is consistent with both teams scoring being more likely than a shutout, but with the total expected to stay below four goals more often than not.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.44
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 65%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.44
- Potential win
- 44 $
- Status
- pending
