Hoffenheim vs Besiktas: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
BesiktasHoffenheim host Beşiktaş at the PreZero Arena in Sinsheim in the second round of the Europa League league phase. The hosts are starting from 29th place after a goalless defeat in the opening round, while Beşiktaş sit fourth with three points and a 4:1 goal difference. The points gap makes the match especially important for Hoffenheim, who need to recover quickly after a poor domestic run.
Hoffenheim: home advantage against a declining trend
Hoffenheim have lost four of their last five matches. Their only victory in that sequence was a 2:1 home success over Stuttgart; the other home fixtures ended in defeats to Borussia and Hamburg, both by 2:3. Away from Sinsheim, the team lost 0:2 to OFI Crete and 1:3 to Paderborn. They have scored in four of those five games, but have conceded in every one and are now on a three-match losing streak.
Where the hosts can hurt Beşiktaş
- They found the net in four of the last five games, so the attacking threat has not disappeared.
- The defensive record is the main weakness.
- The opening Europa League match ended with no Hoffenheim goal and two conceded, leaving no margin for another slow start.
Albian Hajdari will miss the match with a plantar fascia injury, while Patrick Wimmer is still recovering from a muscle problem, according to media reports. In the table, the team have no points after one round and a 0:2 goal difference.
- Gamburghome2:3
- Paderbornaway1:3
- OFI Kreteaway0:2
- Shtutgarthome2:1
- Borussiyahome2:3
Beşiktaş: better results and a productive attack
Beşiktaş have won four of their last five matches. Their recent sequence includes away victories over Fenerbahçe and home wins against BB Erzurumspor, Olympique Marseille and Kocaelispor. The only setback was a 2:3 defeat away to Amedspor. They have scored in all five matches, while four of those games included a conceded goal.
Form profile and squad changes
- The Europa League start was strong: a 4:1 home win over Marseille.
- Clean-sheet potential exists, shown by the 3:0 victory over BB Erzurumspor.
- Defensive control is less reliable away from home, with three conceded at Amedspor after one conceded at Fenerbahçe.
Vaclav Cerny is out with a left hamstring injury involving strain and swelling. Dusan Vlahovic was left out of the squad while being treated for viral gastroenteritis, and Milot Rashica is also unavailable while continuing treatment, according to media reports. Coach Vincenzo Italiano said the team does not depend on Vlahovic, placing responsibility on the collective attack. The available facts do not name a probable lineup or formation. Beşiktaş have three points and a 4:1 tournament record after one match; Elo figures are unavailable.
- Kodzhayelisporhome2:1
- Amedsporaway2:3
- Olimpik Marselʹhome4:1
- BB Erzurumsporhome3:0
- Fenerbakhcheaway2:1
Head-to-head
- 27.07.2016Khoffenkhaym0:0BeshiktashTovarishcheskiye matchi klubov
Team news and the tournament context
The confirmed absences affect both sides in different areas. Hoffenheim lose Hadari and Wimmer, while Beşiktaş travel without Cerny, Vlahovic and Rashica. For the visitors, the absence of three attacking or wide options reduces selection depth, though their recent scoring record remains stronger than the hosts’ defensive record.
Italiano’s statement directly addresses the loss of Vlahovic and signals a collective attacking plan rather than a single-player solution. No further expert opinions, confirmed tactical plans, suspension information or additional squad news are available in the supplied facts.
Our goals forecast
Hoffenheim face Beşiktaş in Sinsheim seeking their first points of the Europa League league phase. Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.42. The hosts have conceded in all five recent matches and lost three straight, yet scored in four of those five. Their defensive decline has not been matched by an attacking drought: backing goals at both ends is more persuasive than relying on a home win.
Beşiktaş have scored in each of their last five outings, including four against Marseille in their European opener, but conceded in four. That combination suits this selection: the visitors have a consistent scoring record without regularly keeping opponents out. The absence of Vlahovic, Cerny and Rashica reduces confidence in their attacking output, so the recent scoring run should not be treated as a guarantee. A plausible score is 1:1.
Final betting view
Both Teams To Score - Yes 1.42 is our selection, with the market assigning it a 65.5% probability. Beşiktaş’s missing players are the main reservation, rather than a reason to back either side to keep a clean sheet.
FAQ
When does TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Besiktas kick off?
The match starts on 15.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), PreZero Arena (Sinsheim).
What is the prediction for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — Besiktas?
Our pick is Both Teams To Score - Yes at 1.42.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win — 49%, draw — 24%, Besiktas win — 27%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Gamburghome2:3
- Paderbornaway1:3
- OFI Kreteaway0:2
- Shtutgarthome2:1
- Borussiyahome2:3
- Kodzhayelisporhome2:1
- Amedsporaway2:3
- Olimpik Marselʹhome4:1
- BB Erzurumsporhome3:0
- Fenerbakhcheaway2:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AC Sparta Prague | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 4 | Besiktas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:1 | 3 |
| 5 | Royale Union Saint-Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 29 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 30 | Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 27.07.2016Khoffenkhaym0:0BeshiktashTovarishcheskiye matchi klubov
About the match
- 15 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: PreZero Arena (Sinsheim), Zinskhaym
- Weather: 11° · precip. 0% · wind 0.8 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 14.10 15:10
Market view and goal expectations
The market gives Hoffenheim the status of a moderate home favourite, assigning the hosts a 49.3% win probability. Beşiktaş are rated at 27.1% for an away win, while the draw stands at 23.6%. This is a preference for home advantage rather than a strong conviction: the line has shown no notable movement over the last twenty-four hours.
The goal market leans toward a maximum of three goals, with a 56% probability for Under 3.5 against 44% for Over 3.5. At the same time, both teams to score is assessed at 65.5%, a combination supported by Beşiktaş scoring in five straight matches and Hoffenheim conceding in all five of theirs. The unchanged lines indicate that the market has not materially revised its view after the latest team-news updates.
Our prediction
- Market
- Both Teams To Score - Yes
- Current odds
- 1.42
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 68%
- Market estimate
- 65%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.42
- Potential win
- 42 $
- Status
- pending
