UEFA Europa League Prediction: Sturm Graz vs Olympique de Marseille
Sturm Graz
Olympique de MarseilleSturm Graz welcomes Olympique de Marseille to Merkur Arena in the third round of the Europa League league phase. Both sides have one point or fewer after two matches, so this meeting is an early chance to improve their position in a table where the leaders are already several points ahead.
Sturm Graz: home scoring against European pressure
Recent form and performance profile
Sturm have won three of their last five, scoring 11 goals and conceding 8. Their latest result was a 6–1 home win over Grazer AK; before that, they lost 0–3 away to Bournemouth and beat Austria Wien 2–0. At home in this run, results were mixed: a 0–3 defeat to Salzburg, a friendly win, then the six-goal derby victory. They have scored in three of the five matches and conceded in four.
Strengths, risks and squad picture
The six goals against Grazer AK show their capacity to convert chances at home, while the clean sheet away at Austria Wien is their best recent defensive display. The counterweight is the pair of three-goal defeats, plus no goals scored in either loss. Sturm have one point after two league-phase matches, with no goals scored and three conceded, and the supplied standings place them 26th. Reports say the club has gone four European matches without a win and that several players are injured, including the first-choice goalkeeper.
- Grazer AKhome6:1
- Bournemouthaway0:3
- Austria Wienaway2:0
- Floridsdorfer AChome3:1
- FC Salzburghome0:3
Marseille: dangerous in transition, unsettled in Europe
Recent form and performance profile
Marseille have two wins and three defeats across their last five, with 9 goals scored and 9 conceded. They responded to European losses against Besiktas and Olympiacos with league wins over Troyes and Angers, the latter a 5–2 away result. They have scored in four of five and conceded in four. Away from home, their latest two outings produced a 2–0 win and a 5–2 win, but the earlier 1–4 defeat at Besiktas shows the defensive range of outcomes.
Strengths, risks and squad picture
Marseille’s recent away scoring and threat on fast breaks are notable, especially if Sturm leave space after losing possession. They have conceded 6 goals across their last two European fixtures and are still without a point in the competition, with one goal scored and five allowed; the table lists them 32nd. The expected approach is a much-changed side, which may reduce cohesion and individual quality.
- Angers SCOaway5:2
- Olympiacos Piraeushome0:1
- Troyes ACaway2:0
- Paris Saint-Germainhome1:2
- Besiktasaway1:4
Head-to-head
- 27.10.1999Sturm Graz3:2Olympique de MarseilleChampions League (First stage)
- 13.09.1999Olympique de Marseille2:0Sturm GrazChampions League (First stage)
European context and team news
Sturm’s four-match European winless run and the reported absence of their first-choice goalkeeper are the key concerns for the hosts. Marseille arrive after losing both previous Europa League matches, but their attacking threat in transition remains a stated strength. The available previews expect a heavily rotated Marseille lineup, with reduced familiarity among players.
Наш прогноз
В матче Sturm Graz — Olympique de Marseille выбираем Handicap 2 (0) за 1.5. У хозяев сразу два существенных риска: команда не выигрывает в четырех еврокубковых матчах подряд, а основной вратарь не сыграет из-за травмы. На этом отрезке Sturm Graz пропустил 8 мячей в 5 встречах, причем в последнем матче против европейского соперника уступил 0:3.
Марсель подходит к игре после победы над Angers SCO со счетом 5:2 в гостях, забив 7 мячей в двух последних чемпионатных матчах. Французская команда опасна в быстрых атаках, когда получает пространство, а оборона Sturm уже показала уязвимость при высокой нагрузке. Ротация гостей снижает уверенность в чистой победе, поэтому азиатская фора 0 сохраняет возврат при ничьей. Рынок оценивает победу Marseille в 47.1%, что заметно выше шансов хозяев — 26.9%.
Вероятный счет — 1:2 в пользу Olympique de Marseille.
Заключение
Handicap 2 (0) за 1.5 сочетает преимущество Marseille в атаке с защитой от ничьей. Травма основного вратаря Sturm Graz и слабая еврокубковая серия хозяев делают выбор в пользу гостей обоснованным.
FAQ
When does Sturm Graz — Olympique de Marseille kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Merkur Arena (Graz).
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz — Olympique de Marseille?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.5.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Sturm Graz win — 27%, draw — 26%, Olympique de Marseille win — 47%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Grazer AKhome6:1
- Bournemouthaway0:3
- Austria Wienaway2:0
- Floridsdorfer AChome3:1
- FC Salzburghome0:3
- Angers SCOaway5:2
- Olympiacos Piraeushome0:1
- Troyes ACaway2:0
- Paris Saint-Germainhome1:2
- Besiktasaway1:4
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 27 | N.E.C. | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 | Viktoria Plzen | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 32 | Olympique de Marseille | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 33 | Celtic | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 0 |
Head-to-head
- 27.10.1999Sturm Graz3:2Olympique de MarseilleChampions League (First stage)
- 13.09.1999Olympique de Marseille2:0Sturm GrazChampions League (First stage)
About the match
- 22 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Merkur Arena (Graz), Grats
- Weather: 14° · precip. 0% · wind 1.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 13:10
Market view
The away win is the leading 1X2 outcome at 47.1%, against 26.9% for a home win and 26% for a draw. That makes Marseille the market favourite, but not an overwhelming one; the line has shown no notable movement over the past 24 hours. The market also leans toward a match with at least three goals, while both teams to score is assessed above even chance. These expectations fit the recent scoring and conceding patterns, though Marseille’s likely rotation and Sturm’s goalkeeper issue pull in different directions.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.5
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 63%
- Market estimate
- 63%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.5
- Potential win
- 50 $
- Status
- pending
