OFI Crete vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: UEFA Europa League match prediction
OFI Crete
Bayer 04 LeverkusenOFI Crete host Bayer 04 Leverkusen at Pankritio in Heraklion in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Leverkusen have six points after two matches; OFI have three. Leverkusen are second and have conceded no goals; OFI are eighteenth and have lost their last three matches.
OFI Crete: home advantage under pressure
Recent form and tournament position
OFI have one win, one draw and three defeats in their last five matches, conceding eleven. They scored in four games and conceded in four. Their latest result was a 4:3 defeat away to Kalamata, after losses to Rennes and AEK Athens. At home, they beat Hoffenheim 2:0 and drew 2:2 with Asteras Tripolis. OFI have won both of their latest home Europa League matches and lost away to Rennes in the league phase.
OFI are eighteenth with three points, three goals scored and two conceded after two rounds. Taxiarchis Fountas has one tournament goal, and Nicolaos Athanasiou has one assist. Thiago Nuss has two goals and one assist in his last four appearances.
- Two home Europa League wins.
- Scored in four of their last five matches.
- Conceded eleven goals in their last five matches.
- Lost their last three matches.
Expected structure and squad situation
Christos Kontis is the head coach. Fountas and Nuss are the main named attacking options; compact spacing between midfield and defence will be needed to limit Leverkusen’s movement.
- Kalamataaway3:4
- Stade Rennaisaway1:2
- AEK Athensaway0:3
- Asteras Tripolishome2:2
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome2:0
Leverkusen: control, depth and sustained output
Form, table position and attacking profile
Leverkusen have won their last five matches, scoring fourteen goals. They scored in every game and kept clean sheets against Celje, Leipzig and Lech Poznan. Recent results include a 4:3 away win at Mainz, a 4:0 Europa League win in Poznan and a 2:1 home win over Freiburg. They are second in the league phase with six points, six goals scored and none conceded.
Across their last ten matches, Leverkusen have seven wins, one draw and two defeats, with twenty-seven goals scored and eleven conceded. Patrick Schick has scored four times in his last three matches, including two penalties against Lech. Malik Tillman and Ibrahim Maza each have one tournament goal; Afonso Bastardo Moreira has one assist. Maza is unavailable.
- Five straight wins and goals in each of their last five matches.
- Fourteen goals scored in that five-match run.
- Several attacking and defensive options are unavailable.
Absences and likely tactical consequences
Jonas Hofmann, Victor Boniface and Tim Oermann are suspended in the Europa League. Kenneth Eichhorn is out with illness. Montrell Culbreath, Nathan Tella, Ibrahim Maza, Guelа Doue, Martin Terrier, Eliesse Ben Seghir and Christian Kofane are injured or unavailable. Terrier was injured again in the win over Lech, and Kofane is expected to miss several weeks. Head coach Carles Martinez has won all four matches since taking charge. The absences may require rotation around Schick and the remaining wide options.
- Freiburghome2:1
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away4:3
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome2:0
- Celjehome2:0
Team news and motivation around the fixture
OFI have won three of four matches in the current European campaign and both of their latest home matches in the competition. They have managed one victory in the last month and conceded eleven goals in their last five fixtures.
Leverkusen are unbeaten in their last ten matches and have won all four under Martinez. The club is giving away places on a fan cruise around Crete for the match. No further OFI squad news or confirmed line-up is available.
Our pick: Leverkusen to win
Our selection is W2 at 1.25. Leverkusen’s last two away games produced eight goals and two wins: OFI face an attack that has maintained its output on the road. The hosts conceded nine goals across their three consecutive defeats, so their recent defensive problems offer the visitors a route to three points without needing a clean sheet.
Availability is the main risk. Jonas Hofmann and Victor Boniface are suspended, while Nathan Tella and Ibrahim Maza are among those unavailable through injury or illness. Confirmed line-ups are not available. Patrik Schick nevertheless brings four goals from his last three appearances, including two penalties against Lech. OFI’s two latest European home wins demand caution, but Leverkusen’s scoring threat makes the away result preferable to a bet requiring a large winning margin. Predicted score: 1-3.
Final verdict
W2 at 1.25 is the recommendation, with Schick’s recent scoring offering a concrete attacking answer to the visitors’ absences. OFI’s home record is the principal risk, rather than a reason to require a more ambitious result.
FAQ
When does OFI Crete — Bayer 04 Leverkusen kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 12:45 (New York), Pankritio (Heraklion).
What is the prediction for OFI Crete — Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Our pick is W2 at 1.25.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: OFI Crete win — 8%, draw — 14%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen win — 78%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Kalamataaway3:4
- Stade Rennaisaway1:2
- AEK Athensaway0:3
- Asteras Tripolishome2:2
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheimhome2:0
- Freiburghome2:1
- Lech Poznanaway4:0
- 1. FSV Mainz 05away4:3
- RasenBallsport Leipzighome2:0
- Celjehome2:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:1 | 6 |
| 2 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:0 | 6 |
| 3 | Benfica | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 6 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 19 | S.C.U. Torreense | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 |
About the match
- 22 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Pankritio (Heraklion)
- Weather: 23° · precip. 0% · wind 4.4 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 14:00
Market view and match conditions
The market makes Leverkusen clear favourites. The goal markets are balanced: Over 3.5 is assessed at 49.6% and Under 3.5 at 50.4%. BTTS Yes stands at 52.9%, against 47.2% for BTTS No. OFI have scored in four of their last five matches and conceded eleven in that span; Leverkusen have scored fourteen goals in their last five. The match is scheduled in Heraklion at 23°C, with no rain, wind of 4.4 m/s and gusts reaching 12.5 m/s.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.25
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 78%
- Market estimate
- 78%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.25
- Potential win
- 25 $
- Status
- pending
