NEC vs Levski: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
N.E.C.
Levski SofiaMatch result
N.E.C. 1:1 Levski Sofia (0:1, 1:0)
The UEFA Europa League match between N.E.C. and Levski Sofia ended in a 1:1 draw. Levski Sofia took the lead in the first half ending 0:1, but N.E.C. leveled the score in the second half to make it 1:0 for the period. Our prediction for a home win (W1) ultimately lost as the points were shared.
Our prediction: W1 at 1.85 — the bet lost.
NEC host Levski at De Goffert in Nijmegen on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Both seek their first points after opening defeats. NEC sit 36th and Levski 27th, each three points behind leaders Juventus, with the gap in position reflecting their opening scorelines.
NEC: home scoring, but no defensive shutouts
Recent results and venue trends
NEC are winless in five matches across all competitions, with three draws and two defeats. Their latest result, 1-1 away to Ajax, followed another 1-1 against Go Ahead Eagles. Before those draws came defeats at Cambuur and Juventus. The Europa League opener ended 5-0; that single fixture does not establish a European scoring trend.
Strengths and weaknesses in numbers
- The two home fixtures in this sequence were draws. NEC scored in both but kept no clean sheet.
- NEC conceded in all five matches.
Unavailable players narrow the options
Bram Nuytinck, Philippe Sandler and Emre Mor are injured and will miss the match. Mitchel Bakker, Adam Taouaoui and Isak Aarøen are not registered for the tournament. Ayodele Thomas is unavailable and training individually following a club disciplinary decision.
- Ajaxaway1:1
- Go Ahead Eagleshome1:1
- Juventusaway0:5
- Cambuuraway0:3
- Excelsiorhome2:2
Levski: stronger defensive returns on the road
Form ahead of the trip to Nijmegen
Levski arrive after a 2-0 away win over Cherno More on 11 October. Their five-match sequence contains two wins, one draw and two defeats, with five goals scored and five conceded. Their European opener ended in a 1-0 away defeat to Red Bull.
Where the visitors have an edge
- Levski kept three clean sheets in five matches.
- The three away fixtures yielded one win, one draw and one defeat, with two goals scored and one conceded.
- Only one of the five matches featured BTTS and Over 2.5 goals: the 4-2 Super Cup defeat to CSKA Sofia.
- Levski scored in three of five games.
Training returns and confirmed absences
Asen Mitkov missed the final training session through injury and will not play. Mustapha Sangaré is absent because he is not registered for the Europa League. Mazire Soula, Akram Bouras and Radoslav Kirilov trained with the squad while recovering from injuries, but their involvement does not establish that all three are ready to start.
- Cherno More Varnaaway2:0
- Red Bull Salzburgaway0:1
- Botev Vratsaaway0:0
- CSKA Sofiahome2:4
- CSKA Sofia 1948home1:0
Coaches set out their approach
Schreuder says NEC will not underestimate Levski. Julio Velázquez wants his side to express its identity and continue developing, with no change in style for this fixture. Neither coach has specified a tactical adjustment. Probable starting lineups, formations, further suspension details and independent expert assessments are unavailable.
Line-ups
N.E.C.
Starting XI: 1. Gonzalo Crettaz, 4. Perr Schuurs, 6. Darko Nejasmic, 9. Tjaronn Chery, 10. Dusan Tadic, 20. Noe Lebreton, 24. Deveron Fonville, 30. Bryan Linssen, 34. Kevin Kers, 73. Gabriel Bras, 99. Clement Bischoff
Substitutes: 11. Willum Willumsson, 12. Nikolas Polster, 14. Kaj Sierhuis, 18. Dennis Geiger, 22. Ahmetcan Kaplan, 35. Jamiro Monteiro, 38. Joep Geneste, 42. Yassin Moslih, 66. Almugera Kabar
Coach: Dick Schreuder
Levski Sofia
Starting XI: 3. Maicon, 4. Christian Makoun, 7. Reinaldo Nascimento Satorno, 8. Marko Grujic, 17. Everton Bala, 19. El Mehdi Moubarik, 21. Aldair, 27. David Kusso, 35. Sergio Araujo, 50. Kristiyan Dimitrov, 92. Svetoslav Vutsov
Substitutes: 1. Ognyan Vladimirov, 2. Hevertton Santos, 9. Juan Esteban Perea Sanchez, 11. Armstrong Okoflex, 18. Gasper Trdin, 20. Alejandro Centelles, 22. Mazire Soula, 31. Nikola Serafimov, 78. Martin Lukov
Coach: Julio Velazquez Santiago
Our pick for Nijmegen
Our bet is W1 1.85. NEC's route to their first Europa League points is to turn home attacking pressure into a lead rather than chase the game. They scored in both recent fixtures at De Goffert, while Levski failed to score in two of their last three away matches, including their European opener. That contrast favours the hosts, although it does not suggest a comfortable margin.
The selection carries defensive risk: NEC have conceded in all five recent games. According to media reports, Bram Nuytinck and Philippe Sandler are injured, while Levski will be without the injured Asen Mitkov and the unregistered Mustapha Sangare. There is no confirmed return of recovered NEC players; Mazire Soula, Akram Bouras and Radoslav Kirilov resumed group training for Levski instead. The case for the hosts therefore rests on home scoring, not an assumed improvement in squad availability. Our predicted score is 2-1 to NEC.
Final betting view
W1 1.85 is our selection, with NEC's capacity to score at home the deciding factor. Their defensive absences make this a narrow-win call rather than a high-confidence bet.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Ajaxaway1:1
- Go Ahead Eagleshome1:1
- Juventusaway0:5
- Cambuuraway0:3
- Excelsiorhome2:2
- Cherno More Varnaaway2:0
- Red Bull Salzburgaway0:1
- Botev Vratsaaway0:0
- CSKA Sofiahome2:4
- CSKA Sofia 1948home1:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Lillestrom | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 24 | Levski Sofia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 25 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0:3 | 1 |
| 27 | N.E.C. | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 28 | Celta | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:3 | 0 |
About the match
- 15 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Goffert (Nijmegen), Neymegen
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market expectations favour NEC, but only narrowly
NEC are the 1X2 favourites, with a margin-free home-win probability of 50.8%, against 25% for the draw and 24.2% for Levski. Over 2.5 goals is assessed at 54.7% and BTTS at 56.7%, so the goal markets lean towards scoring despite the visitors' away defensive record. None of these lines has moved noticeably over the last 24 hours.
Our prediction
- Market
- W1
- Odds
- 1.91
- Odds at prediction
- 1.85
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 53%
- Market estimate
- 53%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.91
- Potential win
- 91 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.8
- Status
- lost
- Profit
- −100 $
