Lyon vs Crystal Palace forecast in the UEFA Europa League
Lyon
Crystal PalaceMatch result
Lyon 3:2 Crystal Palace (2:0, 1:2)
In the UEFA Europa League match, Lyon defeated Crystal Palace with a final score of 3:2. The first period ended 2:0 in favor of the home side, while the second period finished 1:2. Our prediction for a 1X bet won as the home team secured the victory.
Our prediction: 1X at 1.38 — the bet won.
Lyon host Crystal Palace at Parc Olympique Lyonnais on 15 October in the second round of the Europa League league phase. Both opened with a victory and have three points; Palace sit second and Lyon 11th on goal difference. This meeting offers an early chance to separate two sides level on points.
Lyon: home scoring strength, defensive absences
Recent results and venue split
Lyon’s last five matches produced three wins, one draw and one defeat. Their latest outing ended in a 2-1 loss at Lens.
Attacking output and defensive balance
- Lyon scored in four of those five matches, with the goalless draw at Paris the exception.
Availability and selection
Lois Openda is out with a fractured fibula, Nicolas Tagliafico with a muscle injury and Mohamadi Ouedraogo with a cruciate ligament injury. Moussa Niakhate has returned to team training, and Paulo Fonseca expects him to make the squad. That is not confirmation of a starting place.
- RC Lensaway1:2
- Stade Rennaishome4:0
- Anderlechtaway2:1
- Parisaway0:0
- Auxerrehome3:1
Crystal Palace: productive wins, limited away evidence
Form across competitions
Palace have two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five fixtures. They most recently beat Nottingham Forest 3-1, following a 2-0 friendly defeat against Bristol City. That friendly should be separated from their competitive record rather than treated as an equivalent league setback.
Strengths and limits of the sample
- Palace’s Europa League opener was a 4-0 win over Lech, putting them above Lyon on goal difference.
- The only away match in this five-game sequence was a 0-0 draw at Leeds; it cannot establish a broad travelling trend.
Team selection
No Palace injury, suspension, probable lineup or formation update has been supplied. The available team news therefore does not establish who will lead the attack or whether Pierre Sage will change the side after the Forest victory.
- Nottingham Foresthome3:1
- Bristol Cityhome0:2
- Leeds Unitedaway0:0
- Lech Poznanhome4:0
- Ipswich Townhome2:3
Head-to-head: no competitive precedent listed
No competitive meeting is listed; Palace won the separate friendly 2-0 on 5 August 2023, a result that offers little basis for assessing this European fixture.
- 05.08.2023Crystal Palace2:0LyonClub Friendlies
Sage’s return adds a personal dimension
Sage said he still feels part of Lyon and described his return as a special occasion, while stressing that playing well remains the priority. His comments frame the visit as emotionally significant without indicating a tactical change. The schedule also differs: Palace last played on 11 October, Lyon on 9 October, leaving the hosts two additional days between fixtures.
Line-ups
Lyon
Starting XI: 1. Dominik Greif, 7. Ernest Nuamah, 8. Corentin Tolisso, 11. Keito Nakamura, 13. Zachary Athekame, 16. Abner Vinicius Da Silva Santos, 18. Khalis Merah, 20. Felix Bacher, 21. Ruben Kluivert, 23. Tyler Morton, 99. Noah Nartey
Substitutes: 2. Mads Bidstrup, 6. Tanner Tessmann, 10. Pavel Sulc, 19. Moussa Niakhate, 22. Clinton Mata, 24. Julien Duranville, 25. Justin Bengui Joao, 26. Kail Boudache, 37. Steeve Kango, 40. Remy Descamps, 45. Remi Stephane Himbert, 85. Noham Kamara
Coach: Paulo Fonseca
Crystal Palace
Starting XI: 3. Tyrick Mitchell, 5. Axel Disasi, 6. Jaydee Canvot, 7. Ismaila Sarr, 10. Yeremy Jesus Pino Santos, 20. Adam Wharton, 22. Jorgen Strand Larsen, 23. Quinten Timber, 26. Chris Richards, 30. Oscar Mingueza, 44. Walter Benitez
Substitutes: 9. Edward Nketiah, 11. Dwight McNeil, 18. Daichi Kamada, 19. Will Hughes, 21. Honest Ahanor, 24. Dario Osorio, 25. Anan Khalaili, 31. Remi Matthews, 54. Dean Benamar, 81. Lucca Magalhaes Benetton
Coach: Pierre Sage
Our pick: protect against the draw
Our bet is 1X 1.38. Lyon’s latest home fixtures highlighted their scoring strength, making their attacking output at Parc Olympique Lyonnais the strongest reason to back them to avoid defeat. Palace drew 0-0 away at Leeds: that limited away evidence does not warrant backing the visitors to overturn Lyon’s home advantage.
The draw protection matters because Lyon are missing Lois Openda, Nicolas Tagliafico and Mohamadi Ouedraogo through injury, according to media reports. Moussa Niakhate’s return to training offers a defensive option, but does not establish full match readiness. There is also a recovery advantage: Lyon last played on 9 October, Palace on 11 October. The home-win probability of 43.8% and draw probability of 26.1% support considering draw protection, rather than treating a Lyon victory as assured. Predicted score: 1-1.
Final betting verdict
1X 1.38 keeps Lyon’s home scoring strength on our side while covering a draw if their absences reduce their cutting edge. The available away evidence for Palace is too thin to justify opposing that protection.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- RC Lensaway1:2
- Stade Rennaishome4:0
- Anderlechtaway2:1
- Parisaway0:0
- Auxerrehome3:1
- Nottingham Foresthome3:1
- Bristol Cityhome0:2
- Leeds Unitedaway0:0
- Lech Poznanhome4:0
- Ipswich Townhome2:3
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ferencvarosi | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 8 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 14 | FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 16 | Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 05.08.2023Crystal Palace2:0LyonClub Friendlies
About the match
- 15 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais (Lyon), Lion
Odds
odds before kick-off
Market assessment: Lyon ahead, but below a majority
Lyon are the 1X2 favourites with a margin-free market probability of 43.8%, compared with 30.1% for Palace and 26.1% for the draw. That is a home advantage rather than a strong expectation of victory. There has been no notable movement over the past 24 hours.
The goals markets lean towards Over 2.5 at 57.7% and BTTS at 60.8%. Those assessments place more weight on scoring than on a low-event contest, although Palace’s recent away evidence consists of just one scoreless fixture. The totals and BTTS lines have also remained unchanged over the same period.
Our prediction
- Market
- 1X
- Odds
- 1.38
- Odds at prediction
- 1.38
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 70%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.38
- Potential win
- 38 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.54
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +38 $
