Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Anderlecht: UEFA Europa League Prediction
Jagiellonia Bialystok
AnderlechtJagiellonia Bialystok host Anderlecht at Miejski Stadium in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. After two matches, Jagiellonia are seventeenth with three points; Anderlecht are twenty-ninth without a point. The hosts can strengthen their qualification position, while the visitors need to recover from a European defeat.
Jagiellonia Bialystok: home advantage with defensive concerns
Jagiellonia’s last five matches brought two wins and three defeats, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home, they beat Suduva 5:0 and Ararat 3:1, but lost to Polonia Warszawa 1:2 and Gornik Zabrze 1:3. The two home victories accounted for 8 goals, while both home defeats involved conceding at least two.
They scored in 4 of 5 matches and kept only 1 clean sheet. Their attack has produced goals regularly, but their defensive record leaves little protection when scoring slows.
In the Europa League, Jagiellonia have scored 4 and conceded 3, a positive goal difference of one. Kamil Jozwiak, Rodrigo Conceicao and Osman Sow have each scored once in one appearance in the competition.
- Zaglebie Lubinaway0:1
- Ararat - Armeniahome3:1
- Gornik Zabrzehome1:3
- KSP Polonia Warszawahome1:2
- Suduva Marijampolehome5:0
Anderlecht: stronger five-match record, weakened defence
Anderlecht won three of their last five matches and lost two, scoring 9 goals and conceding 4. The victories came against Zulte Waregem, Stade de Reims and Cercle Brugge, with 8 goals scored across those wins. They scored in four of five fixtures and kept two clean sheets.
Those three wins were followed by consecutive defeats. Their away sequence moved from a victory at Cercle Brugge to a 0:1 Europa League loss at Dinamo Zagreb and then defeat at Beerschot. In the league phase, Anderlecht have scored once and conceded three times: their European attack has been less productive than their recent overall record.
- Beerschotaway1:2
- Dinamo Zagrebaway0:1
- Cercle Bruggeaway2:1
- Stade de Reimshome3:0
- Zulte Waregemhome3:0
Team news and match context
Jagiellonia enter after a 0:1 league defeat at Zaglebie Lubin. Anderlecht’s latest match ended in a 1:2 Belgian Cup loss to Beerschot, where they played almost the entire second half with ten players. That extended spell short-handed added to the physical demands before the trip to Białystok.
Julian Biancone, Killian Sardella and Ilay Camara are unavailable through injury. All three are defenders, reducing Anderlecht’s options in the back line.
Our prediction: protection against a draw
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) 1.65. Anderlecht’s three wins in five matches compare favourably with Jagiellonia’s three defeats over the same span. The hosts conceded in four of those games, offering the visitors a route to goal even without a clean sheet. That makes backing Anderlecht with the stake returned on a draw preferable to relying on an outright away win.
The main risk is the visitors’ depleted defence: according to media reports, Julian Biancone, Killian Sardella and Ilay Camara are all injured and unavailable. Two consecutive away defeats also argue against treating Anderlecht as firm favourites. With the visitors still seeking their first points after two Europa League matches, the selection balances their stronger recent record against those defensive concerns. Predicted score: 1:2.
Final betting verdict
Handicap 2 (0) 1.65 keeps the bet focused on an Anderlecht win while covering a draw. A home victory remains the losing outcome, so the protection does not eliminate the risk posed by the visitors’ absences.
FAQ
When does Jagiellonia Bialystok — Anderlecht kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Miejski (Białystok).
What is the prediction for Jagiellonia Bialystok — Anderlecht?
Our pick is Handicap 2 (0) at 1.65.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Jagiellonia Bialystok win — 31%, draw — 26%, Anderlecht win — 43%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Zaglebie Lubinaway0:1
- Ararat - Armeniahome3:1
- Gornik Zabrzehome1:3
- KSP Polonia Warszawahome1:2
- Suduva Marijampolehome5:0
- Beerschotaway1:2
- Dinamo Zagrebaway0:1
- Cercle Bruggeaway2:1
- Stade de Reimshome3:0
- Zulte Waregemhome3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 18 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 28 | Celta | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 29 | Anderlecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:3 | 0 |
| 30 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | 0 |
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Miejski (Białystok), Belostok
- Weather: 13° · precip. 47% · wind 4.5 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 15:20
Market view and current pricing
Anderlecht are narrow favourites in the 1X2 market, with an away-win probability of 42.5%, against 31.1% for a home win and 26.4% for a draw. The pricing favours the visitors without making them a clear favourite.
Over 2.5 has a probability of 54.2%, compared with 45.8% for Under 2.5. BTTS (both teams to score) — Yes stands at 58.1%. No listed market has shown notable movement over the last twenty-four hours, and the 1X2 market margin is 3.1%.
BTTS — Yes is the preferred bet: both attacks have scored regularly, while Jagiellonia’s limited clean-sheet record and Anderlecht’s missing defenders weaken the case for either defence.
Our prediction
- Market
- Handicap 2 (0)
- Current odds
- 1.65
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 58%
- Market estimate
- 58%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.65
- Potential win
- 65 $
- Status
- pending
