FC Salzburg vs Milan: UEFA Europa League Match Prediction
FC Salzburg
MilanMatch result
FC Salzburg 0:4 Milan (0:2, 0:2)
In the UEFA Europa League match between FC Salzburg and Milan, the away team secured a 0:4 win. The score by halves was 0:2 in the first half and 0:2 in the second half. Our prediction for W2 was fully confirmed, and the bet won.
Our prediction: W2 at 1.86 — the bet won.
Salzburg host Milan at the Red Bull Arena on 15 October in the second round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. The hosts have three points; Milan have none. Salzburg can strengthen their early position, while Milan need points to close the gap.
Salzburg: a winning start, with selection problems
Form and competitive position
Salzburg sit 14th after a 1–0 opening win, level on points with leaders Juventus. One clean sheet does not establish a defensive trend.
Strengths and limits
The single-goal attacking return left little room for a defensive mistake. One league-phase match is insufficient to establish an Over/Under or BTTS trend, or to compare Salzburg’s home and away output.
Availability and tactical choices
Enrique Aguilar is out with a thigh injury, Justin Omoregie with an ankle injury and Nicolas Veratschnig with a knee injury. Tim Drexler and Leandro Morgalla are doubtful through illness; Damir Redzic has an ankle problem and Christian Zawieschitzky an adductor injury.
Soumaila Diabate has returned to training after a lengthy absence.
- Sassuolo Calcioaway1:1
- Milanaway0:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Lazioaway2:2
- Juventusaway1:1
Milan: pressure to repair the opening defeat
Recent results and league-phase standing
Milan are 30th following a 0–2 opening loss, three points behind Salzburg. Their last five matches produced two wins, two draws and one defeat.
What the scoreline reveals
The opening defeat exposed problems in attack and defence, but one match cannot establish recurring weaknesses. Milan’s historical advantage in this pairing does not demonstrate current attacking strength.
Absences and rotation
Matteo Gabbia will miss the match with a thigh injury, and Alexis Saelemaekers is unavailable with an ankle injury. Samuel Chukwueze missed training through mild muscular fatigue; his participation is uncertain, although he is expected to travel to Austria.
Ruben Amorim has announced rotation.
- Red Bull Salzburgaway0:0
- Red Bull Salzburgaway2:1
- Sturm Grazaway3:0
- Red Bull Salzburgaway0:1
- Red Bull Salzburgaway1:1
Previous meetings favour Milan
The two meetings in 2022 produced a 1–1 draw away for Salzburg and a 4–0 Milan victory in Milan. Those games were four years ago and carry limited weight when assessing the current teams.
- 02.11.2022Milan4:0Red Bull SalzburgChampions League (Group Stage)
- 06.09.2022Red Bull Salzburg1:1MilanChampions League (Group Stage)
- 07.12.1994Red Bull Salzburg0:1MilanChampions League (Group Stage)
- 28.09.1994Milan3:0Red Bull SalzburgChampions League (Group Stage)
Coaches signal changes rather than continuity
Danny Rohl says Salzburg will alter their usual tactical approach to make Milan’s task harder. Bartlomiej Mazurek has stressed confidence and the desire to show the hosts’ strengths. Amorim says uncertain players will undergo a further assessment before selection decisions.
Line-ups
Milan
Starting XI: 5. Koni De Winter, 8. Ruben Loftus-Cheek, 12. Adrien Rabiot, 16. Mike Maignan, 20. Omari Giraud-Hutchinson, 23. Fikayo Tomori, 30. Ardon Jashari, 31. Strahinja Pavlovic, 33. Davide Bartesaghi, 70. Alphadjo Cisse, 73. Francesco Camarda
Substitutes: 2. Pervis Estupinan, 9. Goncalo Matias Ramos, 11. Christian Pulisic, 13. Sankhoun Diawara, 14. Luka Modric, 21. Samuel Chukwueze, 22. Diego Moreira, 28. Christian Comotto, 34. Mario Gila Fuentes, 42. Filippo Terracciano, 80. Yunus Musah, 96. Lorenzo Torriani
Coach: Ruben Amorim
Our prediction: Milan to respond
Our pick is W2 1.86. Milan visit Salzburg with less room to accept another setback: they have 0 points after one match. The hosts’ absences offer a route to exploit that urgency. According to media reports, Enrique Aguilar, Justin Omoregie and Nicolas Veratschnig are ruled out, while four further players are doubtful. That reduces Salzburg’s flexibility when selecting the side and making changes during the game.
This is not a risk-free selection. Milan are missing Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers, and Ruben Amorim has announced rotation rather than a settled lineup. The case for the visitors therefore rests on Salzburg’s wider availability problems and Milan’s need to turn their tournament position around, not on an assumption that motivation alone wins matches. Predicted score: 1–2.
Final verdict
W2 1.86 is our selection, with Salzburg’s depleted options the decisive factor. Milan’s own absences and planned rotation keep confidence moderate rather than high.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Sassuolo Calcioaway1:1
- Milanaway0:3
- Milanaway2:0
- Lazioaway2:2
- Juventusaway1:1
- Red Bull Salzburgaway0:0
- Red Bull Salzburgaway2:1
- Sturm Grazaway3:0
- Red Bull Salzburgaway0:1
- Red Bull Salzburgaway1:1
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 14 | FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 16 | Milan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 3 |
| 17 | Jagiellonia Bialystok | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 3 |
Head-to-head
- 02.11.2022Milan4:0Red Bull SalzburgChampions League (Group Stage)
- 06.09.2022Red Bull Salzburg1:1MilanChampions League (Group Stage)
- 07.12.1994Red Bull Salzburg0:1MilanChampions League (Group Stage)
- 28.09.1994Milan3:0Red Bull SalzburgChampions League (Group Stage)
About the match
- 15 October · 12:45 New York
- Venue: Red Bull Arena (Salzburg), Zalʹtsburg
Odds
odds before kick-off
Milan retain favouritism as the market softens
Milan are the 1X2 favourite at a margin-adjusted probability of 47.8%, below an even chance. Over the past 24 hours, their odds have lengthened while Salzburg and the draw have shortened, narrowing the visitors’ market advantage.
Over 2.5 carries a 57.9% probability, but support has shifted towards Under. BTTS is assessed at 60% and has shortened: backing for both teams to score has increased while support for more than two goals has eased.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Odds
- 2.03
- Odds at prediction
- 1.86
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 55%
- Market estimate
- 51%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 2.03
- Potential win
- 103 $
- Odds at kick-off
- 1.9
- Status
- won
- Profit
- +103 $
