UEFA Europa League: Celje vs FC Salzburg Match Prediction
Celje
FC SalzburgCelje host FC Salzburg at Zdezhele Stadium on 22 October in the third round of the UEFA Europa League league phase. Kick-off is at 15:00 America/New_York time. The hosts need their first points to move away from the bottom of the standings, while Salzburg arrive after a European defeat followed by a domestic away win.
Celje: defensive resilience, limited attacking output
Recent results and the home split
Celje’s last five matches produced one win, two draws and two defeats. The sequence began with a 2-0 loss at Bayer Leverkusen and a goalless draw at Mura, followed by a 1-0 home win over NK Aluminij, a 3-0 home defeat to Omonia and another goalless draw at Maribor. Their two home appearances therefore offer contrasting evidence: a narrow domestic success and a European defeat by three goals.
Strengths, weaknesses and availability
- The listed results include clean sheets in domestic competition, showing that Celje can keep opponents out.
- The listed results show scoring in only one of five matches.
- The listed results include both low-scoring games and the 3-0 Omonia defeat, illustrating the difference between low domestic totals and European resistance.
- Celje sit 35th with no points and a 0-5 goal balance after two European fixtures, six points behind leaders Juventus.
Holding midfielder Jošt Pišek is unavailable with a torn cruciate ligament. His absence removes an option for protecting the defence. The wider seven-match run contains only one victory and four defeats, while limited squad depth complicates competing on two fronts.
- Mariboraway0:0
- AC Omoniahome0:3
- NK Aluminijhome1:0
- Muraaway0:0
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway0:2
Salzburg: away goals with a European warning
A sharp recovery after Milan
Salzburg’s five-match sequence contains two wins, one draw and two defeats. They won 3-0 at Sturm Graz, lost a friendly 2-1 to Blau-Weiss Linz, drew 0-0 with Grazer AK and suffered a 4-0 defeat at Milan before winning 3-0 at Rheindorf Altach. The friendly should not carry the same competitive weight as the other fixtures; the latest league result nevertheless marks a clear response to the Milan setback.
Scoring profile and missing players
- The listed results include two clean-sheet wins and a heavy European loss.
- The listed results include games with more than 2.5 goals and games in which both teams scored.
- Three clean sheets contrast with six goals conceded across the other two matches, making the defensive record uneven rather than consistently secure.
Justin Omoregie is out with a shoulder injury, Johannes Moser with an adductor tear, and Anrie Chase, Soumaila Diabaté and Gaoussou Diakité with hamstring injuries. The absences span defence, midfield and attack. The standings list Salzburg 14th with three points from one match, but do not yet reflect the listed Milan defeat, so that position is not a fully current measure.
- Rheindorf Altachaway3:0
- Milanaway0:4
- Grazer AKhome0:0
- Blau-Weiss Linzhome1:2
- Sturm Grazaway3:0
Preparation and information gaps
Both clubs last played on 18 October, leaving the same four-day interval before this fixture. Conditions are forecast at 7°C with no rain and wind of 1.2 m/s, offering no obvious weather-related obstacle to normal passing play.
Probable line-ups, formations, confirmed suspensions and named expert opinions are not supplied, so no specific starting XI or tactical setup can be established.
Our Prediction
Our pick is W2 at 1.56. Salzburg have lost only one of their last seventeen matches, with twelve wins in that sequence, and their latest away performance ended in a 3:0 victory at Rheindorf Altach. Their European record is less convincing after the 4:0 defeat at Milan, but the response in domestic football showed that the team can restore its attacking rhythm quickly.
Celje have won only once in their last seven matches and have scored in just one of their last five. They remain without a point and without a goal in this Europa League campaign, while the 0:3 home loss to Omonia exposed the limits of their attack against organised opposition. The hosts also lack squad depth for a two-front schedule, and the absence of midfielder Jost Pisek further reduces their options in the holding area. Salzburg will miss five players, including Justin Omoregie, Henri Chase and Gaoussou Diakite, but their wider resources and stronger competitive level still separate the sides. The likely score is 0:2 to Salzburg.
Final Verdict
W2 at 1.56 is the recommended selection. Salzburg’s longer-term results, superior away output and Celje’s blank European record point to an away win, with the visitors expected to control the match and create the clearer chances.
FAQ
When does Celje — FC Salzburg kick off?
The match starts on 22.10.2026 at 15:00 (New York), Zdezhele (Celje).
What is the prediction for Celje — FC Salzburg?
Our pick is W2 at 1.56.
What are the teams’ chances?
By market estimate: Celje win — 16%, draw — 21%, FC Salzburg win — 62%.
Chances by market estimate
Team form
- Mariboraway0:0
- AC Omoniahome0:3
- NK Aluminijhome1:0
- Muraaway0:0
- Bayer 04 Leverkusenaway0:2
- Rheindorf Altachaway3:0
- Milanaway0:4
- Grazer AKhome0:0
- Blau-Weiss Linzhome1:2
- Sturm Grazaway3:0
Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Stade Rennais | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 4 |
| 14 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1:0 | 4 |
| 14 | FC Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6:3 | 3 |
| 34 | Ararat - Armenia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 35 | Celje | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:5 | 0 |
| 36 | Lech Poznan | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:8 | 0 |
About the match
- 22 October · 15:00 New York
- Venue: Zdezhele (Celje), Tsele
- Weather: 7° · precip. 0% · wind 1.2 m/s
Odds
Odds updated 21.10 17:10
Market expectations favour the visitors
Salzburg are the clear 1X2 favourites, with a margin-adjusted market probability of 60.5%. The draw stands at 21.7% and a Celje home win at 17.7%. There has been no notable movement over the past 24 hours: the visitors retain a substantial advantage in market assessment despite their recent European defeat.
Over 2.5 goals carries a 59.5% probability, while BTTS is assessed at 56.7%. That scoring expectation contrasts with Celje’s repeated blanks and Salzburg’s results tending towards one-sided scoring. Neither goals market has shown a notable change during the same period.
Our prediction
- Market
- W2
- Current odds
- 1.56
- Odds at prediction
- 1.6
- Confidence
- Our estimate
- 61%
- Market estimate
- 62%
- Stake amount
- 100 $ · 1.6
- Potential win
- 60 $
- Status
- pending
